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North Atlantic Coast 
Comprehensive Study 



Exposure Assessment Desktop Exerc' 


25 September 2013 


U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 

Coastal Storm Risk Management 
Planning Center of Expertise 



Working Definitions 


□ Resiliency - The ability to avoid, minimize, withstand, and recover from the 
effects of adversity, whether natural or manmade, under all circumstances of 
use - applies to engineering, ecological, and communities 


□ Redundancy - Redundancy is the duplication of critical components of a 
system with the intention of increasing reliability of the system, usually in 
the case of a backup or fail-safe 

□ Robustness - Robustness is the ability of a system to continue to operate 
correctly across a wide range of operational conditions with minimal damage, 
alteration or loss of functionality, and to fail gracefully outside of that range 

□ Risk - The risk of a coastal storm event is its probability of occurrence 
multiplied by the consequences. The consequences are measured in terms 
of life safety and property/asset damages 


□ Vulnerability - a function of the character and magnitude to which a system 
is exposed, the sensitivity of the system, and the system's adaptive capacity 

□ Exposure - the nature and magnitude of the hazards that threaten the system 

□ Sensitivity - the potential of system's valued functions to be affected by the changes 
caused by a hazard 


□ Adaptation - Adaptive capacity, adaptive management, climate change adap 



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Plan Formulation and GIS Process 


Existing Conditions & 
Foreseeable Projects + 
Shoreline Type (6 types) 



Output = 4 Measures per 
Vulnerable Area in each 
Reach w/Cost 


Map risk reduction potential + residual 
risk (areas still at risk) + opportunities for 
redundancy & resilience (i.e. GI, NOAA 
Resiliency Index, USFWS & NMFS PARs 


State Maps/Appendices, 
Policy Barriers, etc. 



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Creation Steps of the Independent 

Exposure Indices 



Input Data Layers 



Weighted Input 
Data Layers 


Risk Index Layer 



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Creation Steps of the Composite 

Exposure Index 




Risk Index 



Social Vulnerability 
Risk Index 




Composit 
e Risk 
Index 



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Problem Areas Identification 



Composit 
e Risk 
Index 

(VsrtficaSflGtiaerai Locations 

Agencies, and State 
Agencies) 


Apply 

Minimum Risk 
Threshold 


Regional Area 
Expert Problem 
Identification 


NACCS 

Problem 

Area 


/ 







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Plan Formulation and bis 


Exposure 

Assessment 


^Infrastructure + 
Population Index 

^Social Index 

-2010 Census (tract 
level) 

-% Population 65 and 
over 

-% Population under 5 
-% Population 
w/income below 
poverty 

-% Population non- 
proficient English 
speakers 
-Index of income 
inequality 

^Environmental 
Index 



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Plan Formulation and bis 





Sea Level Change Background 


■ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts continued or 
accelerated global warming, which will cause continued or 
accelerated rise in global mean sea-level 

■ Climate-driven global mean sea level change (SLC) scenarios have 
been developed by USACE (2011) and NOAA (2012) 

■ These scenarios are suitable for use in assessing the future 
impacts of sea level change on the natural environment and 
human infrastructure 

■ The application of these SLC scenarios for the North Atlantic Coast 
Comprehensive Study (NACCS) is outlined in this presentation 


USACE 2011: Sea-Level Change Considerations for Civil Works Programs 

NOAA 2012 : G/otoa/ Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the tinited States National Climate 



Assessment 


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Global vs. Local Sea Level 

Change 


■ During the 20 th century global mean sea level rise stabilized to 
approximately 1.7mm/yr (IPCC 2007) 

■ Local Relative Sea Level Change (RSLC) is influenced by decadal- 
scale climate and oceanographic patterns 

■ These patterns may influence sea level on a temporary (decadal 
or shorter) basis, but these fluctuations are NOT associated with 
long-term sea level change patterns 

■ RSLC relies on long-term water level records > 30 years to remove 
non-GMSL sea level fluctuations and capture local/regional land 
uplift and subsidence 

IPCC 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of 

Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel 

on Climate Change 



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Site-Specific Future Sea Level 

Change 


■ RSLC is the sum of global mean sea level change and 
regional/local vertical land subsidence/uplift 

■ Relative sea level change (RSLC) is required to assess sea 
level change impacts at specific sites 

■ RSLC has been measured directly by NOAA long term water 
level gages 

■ 35 NOAA water level gage sites from VA to MA were 
evaluated for NACCS 



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NACCS SLR Scenarios 


USACE 2011: Sea-Level Change Considerations for Civil Works Programs 

NOAA 2012: Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National 
Climate Assessment 


00 

00 


D 

5 


> 

Q) 


m 

0 

w 

% 


(0 


0 c 



USACE/NOAA Low 
USACE/NOAA Int 
USACE High 
NOAA Highest 


Year 



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Sea Level Rise Mapping 


Location 

Gage 

Number 

East port, ME 

8410140 

Bar Harbor, ME 

8413320 

Portland, ME 

8418150 

Seavey Island, ME 

8418370 

Boston, MA 

8443970 

Woods Hole, MA 

8447930 

Nantucket Island, MA 

8449130 

Newport. R1 

8452660 

Providence, Rl 

8454000 

New London, CT 

8461 4S0 

Bridgeport. CT 

8467150 

Montauk, NY 

8510560 

Port Jefferson, NY 

8514560 

Kings Point. NY 

8516945 

Tlie Battery, NY 

8518750 

Sandy Hook, N J 

8531 680 

Atlantic City, NJ 

8534720 

Cape May. NJ 

8536110 

Philadelphia, PA 

8545240 

Reedy Point, DE 

8551910 

1 aujae HE 



Ocean City, MD 

8570283 

Cambridge, MD 

8571 892 

Chesapeake City, MD 

8573927 

Baltimore, MD 

8574680 

Annapolis, MD 

8575512 

Solomons Island, MD 

8577330 

Washington, DC 

8584900 

KIptopeke, VA 

8632200 

Colonial Beach, VA 

8635150 

Lewisetta, VA 

8635750 

Gloucester Point, VA 

8637624 

Sewells Point, VA 

8633610 

Portsmouth. VA 

3638660 

Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA 

3638363 


Gauge: 8571892, MD, Cambridge: 64 yirs 


All values are in feet 

'NAVD88) 

Year 

USAGE 

Low 

USAGE 

Int 

USACE 

High 

1MOAA 

High 

2018 

0.4 

0.46 

0.65 

0.74 

2068 

0.99 

15 

3.13 

3.94 

2100 

1.37 

2.4 

5.69 

7.32 

2118 

1.58 

2.99 

7.46 

9.69 


Gauge: 8574680, MD, Baltimore: 105 yrs 

All values are in feet (NAVD88) 

Year 

USAGE 

Low 

USAGE 

Int 

USAGE 

High 

WOAA 

High 

2018 

0.3 

0.36 

0.55 

0.64 

2068 

0.8 

1.31 

2.94 

3.75 

2100 

1.11 

2.15 

5.44 

7.07 

2118 

1.29 

27 

7.18 

9.4 


Gauge: 8594900, DC, Washington: 83 yrs 

All values are in feet (NAVD88) 

Year 

USAGE 

Low 

USACE 

Int 

USACE 

High 

NO A A 
High 

2018 

0.11 

0.17 

0.36 

0.45 

2068 

0.61 

1.12 

2.75 

3.56 

2100 

0.93 

1.96 

5.25 

6.89 

2118 

1.11 

2.52 

6.99 

9.22 


Gauge: 8575512, MD, Annapolis: 79 yrs 


All values are in feet (NAVD88) 

Year 

USACE 

Low 

USACE 

Int 

USACE 

High 

NOAA 

High 

2018 

0.33 

0.39 

0.58 

0.68 

2068 

0.88 

1.39 

3.02 

3.83 

2100 

1.23 

2.26 

5.55 

7.18 

2118 

1.42 

2.83 

7.31 

9.53 


Gauge: 8577330, MD, Solomons Island: 70 yrs 

All values are in feet (NAVD88) 

Year 

USACE 

Low 

USACE 

Int 

USACE 

High 

NOAA 

High 

2018 

0.39 

0.45 

0.64 

0.74 

2068 

0.97 

1.48 

3.11 

3.92 

2100 

1.34 

2.38 

5.67 

7.3 

2118 

1.55 

2.96 

B 7.44 1 

9.66 


Gauge: 8570283, MD, Ocean City: <40yrs 

All values are in feet (NAVD88) 

Year 

USACE 

Low 

USACE 

Int 

USACE 

High 

NOAA 

High 

2018 

0.74 

0.80 

0.99 

1.08 

2068 

1.46 

1.98 

3.61 

4.42 

2100 

1.93 

2.97 

6.25 

7.90 

2118 

2.19 

3.60 

8.08 

10.32 


Gauge: 8573927, MD, Chesapeake City: <40yrs 

All values are in feet (NAVD88) 

Year 

USACE 

Low 

USACE 

Int 

USACE 

High 

NOAA 

High 

2018 

0.30 

0.36 

0.55 

0.64 

2068 

0.80 

1.31 

2.94 

3.75 

2100 

1.11 

2.15 

5.44 

7.08 

2118 

1.29 

2.70 

7.18 

9.42 



•a 


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Sea Level Change Inundation 
Depth and Location Process 



Plot NOAA Tide 
Station 
Locations 


Using Sea Level 
Change Curves 
Interpolate a New 
Water Surface 
Layer 


Use a Map Algebra 
Expression to 
Calculate Depth 
and Location of 
Inundated Areas 



Sea Level 
Change 
Water 
Depths 







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Sea Level Rise MaDDina 

PS m S j P “ t i vf/*” - -- g® ■ ■ 



Current Shoretlne 
| | at)- umtB 

~1 NACCS Planning Reaches 
NACCS Study Area 
21 IS USAGE Low SLR Difference 
| no change 
^ | | Inundated 

, ■ 2118 USAGE Intermediate SLR Difference 
| m change 
| Inundated 

■ 2118 USAGE High SLR Difference 

| nd change 
Inundated 

, 2118 NOA A HIGH SLR Difference 
| no change 
Inundated 


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Problem Area Identification 



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Plan Formulation and GIS Process 





38 Reaches 

. 

r 1 

Overlay Cat 1-4 MOM, 
topography, lOOyr + SLR, 
etc. to determine 

inundation possibilities 

V J 







Develop and Aggregate 
Measures by Shoreline Type 


Structural, non- 
structural, RSM, 
GI, Programmatic, 
Policy 



Vulnerability / Problem & N< 


Identify Measures by 
Vulnerable Areas per Reach 


Vulnerability Assessment 


Infrastructure, 
population densities, 
social vulnerability, & 
environmental data are 
used to create a spatial 
grid to identify high risk 
areas based on 
inundation 



Largest AV/Cost = 

Risk Reduction 
Potential 


Apply to 
ongoing studies 


Output = 4 Measures per 
Vulnerable Area in each 
Reach w/Cost 


Map risk reduction potential + residual 
risk (areas still at risk) + opportunities for 
redundancy & resilience (i.e. GI, NOAA 
Resiliency Index, USFWS & NMFS PARs 


State Maps/Appendices, 
Policy Barriers, etc. 



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BUILDING STRONG 



Plan Formulation and GIS Process 


■ Develop comprehensive measures list 

► Structural - sacrificial 

► Structural - non-sacrificial 

► Structural - green infrastructure 

► Upland Storage/Stormwater Management (includes green 
infrastructure) 

► Floodplain Restoration/Storage 

► Non-structural 

► Policy/Programmatic 

■ Assess appropriateness of measures by shoreline 
type (i.e., bluff, sandy, back bay, barrier island, etc.) 

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18 BUILDING STRONG® 



msK Keaumon ana resilience 




Measure 


Definition 


Effect 


Examples 


Natural 


Nature- 

Based 


Created through 
the action of 
physical, 
biological, 
geologic, and 
chemical 
processes 
operating in nature 


Products of 
planning, 
engineering 
design, and 
construction 
incorporating 
natural processes 
that contribute to 
coastal risk 
reduction and 
resilience 


Shoreline erosion control, 
wave and surge attenuation, 
especially in low-energy 
environments; additional 
resilience benefits; dynamic 
behavior and response affect 
performance with respect to 
objectives 


Shoreline erosion control, 
wave and surge attenuation, 
especially in low-energy 
environments; dynamic 
behavior and response affect 
performance with respect to 
objectives 


Non- 

Structur 

al 


Products of public 
policy, 

management and 
regulatory 
practices; may 
include pricing 
schemes, 
planning, 
engineering 
design, and 
construction 


Modify or avoid the impacts of 
the hazard (vs. modifying the 
hazard); relatively predictable 
level of performance with 
respect to objectives 


Barrier islands, 
dunes, reefs, 
wetlands, 
marsh islands 
and 

riparian corridors 


Structure acquisitions or 
proofing, implementing fl 
flood preparedness pla 
land use 


development restriction 0 


greatest flood 

hazard areas, el 
dev 


retreat, evacuation, buyout and leaseback 


Plan Formulation and GIS Process 


Existing Conditions & 
Foreseeable Projects + 
Shoreline Type (6 types) 



Develop and Aggregate 
Measures by Shoreline Type 


Structural, non- 

Consistent t 

structural, RSM, 

with others 

GI, Programmatic, 


Policy 

J 

l J 



Opportunities 


Vulnerability Assessment 



Vulnerability / Problem & N< 



Infrastructure, 
population densities, 
social vulnerability, & 
environmental data are 
used to create a spatial 
grid to identify high risk 
areas based on 
inundation 








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