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TEACHER 
MANUAL 


USPOP 


UNITED STATES POPULATION STUDY 


$ 








Developed By: 


James Friedland, General Douglas MacArthur High School 
Levittown, New York 


Support Material By: 


James Friedland 


Programmed By: 


James Friedland 
Stuart Hollander, State University of New York 
Stony Brook, New York 


HUNTINGTON TWO COMPUTER PROJECT 
Copyright <<)1973, State University of New York 
13 June 1973 


The work of the Huntington Two Computer Project is partially 
supported by the National Science Foundation, Grant GW-5883. 

















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USPOP 


TEACHER MANUAL 


Table of Contents 


I. Basic Information about the Unit .... 


Il. Ynteoduction to the USPOP Unit .«..« 


Lit. Veing tSrcr with Your Clase... 6 2 és 


Eva Samp le Runs @ & ca e oe e @ a & e s e eS e 


V. Key to Student Laboratory Investigations 


VI. Additional Questions for Class Discussion 


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I. 


USPOP 





TEACHER MANUAL 


BASIC INFORMATION ABOUT THE UNIT 


Subject Area: 


Specific Topic: 


Grade Level: 


Coordinated 


Computer Program: 


Computer Language: 


| Special Language 
NN Features Used: 


Abstract: 


Biology, Ecology, Social Studies 


Human Population Projection (USA) 


10 = 12 


USPOP 


BASIC 


TAB 


USPOP is a highly flexible human population 
model. In order to make student use easier, 
the model has been oriented towards investiga- 
tion of United States population projections. 
Other applications are covered in the accom- 
panying RESOURCE MANUAL. 


The student can investigate the effects of 
fertility, age of mother at birth of child, 
sex ratio of the offspring and age-dependent 
mortality on population size and structure. 
Through use of 1970 census data, held in DATA 
Statements, the student need enter only a few 
of the required inputs. 


If the student or teacher wishes to model sit- 
uations other than that collected in the DATA 
Statements, all or some of the required inputs 
may have to be changed. 


oe 


II. INTRODUCTION TO THE USPOP UNIT 


Students are deeply concerned with the effect of population growth, but 
they often lack a solid body of information on which to base a solution. Lack 
of information often leads to a sense of frustration and hopelessness. 


USPOP uses simulation techniques as a stimulus to learning in the teach- 
ing of many key demographic concepts involving population growth and age dis- 
tribution. Students play the role of demographers projecting future popula- 
tion trends. The STUDENT MANUAL leads the student through a series of five 


investigations, each involving a single concept. The following concepts are 
explored: 


INVESTIGATION #1. Effect of fertility on population growth. 
Fertility is seen to have a major impact on population growth. 


INVESTIGATION #2. Effect of time of birth of first child on 
the population-growth rate. Surprisingly, delaying the birth 
of the first child can slow population growth, even if the 
total number of offspring remains constant. 


INVESTIGATION #3. Effect of reducing infant mortality. 
Reducing infant mortality to the lowest level realistically 


possible is seen to have only a minor impact on future popu- 
lation size. 


INVESTIGATIONS #4 and #5. Exploration of factors affecting 
age distribution in a population. Again fertility is seen 

as the major factor. Mortality is important, but it has 

only a secondary effect on age distribution in the population. 


III. USING USPOP WITH YOUR CLASS 


A. Using USPOP as a Student Laboratory 


We hope that this will be your primary use of USPOP. As different 
teachers have access to different facilities, we have subdivided this 
section according to teletype availability. 


NOTE: USPOP is based on the latest information available at the time of 
publication. Instructions have been included in the RESOURCE MANUAL 


for updating USPOP as newer data becomes available. (See Section IV, 
Part F,) 





1) For those teachers having access to multiple-user systems 
or those having their students working on their own time: 


In cases where whole classes are using USPOP, we 
Suggest that you have different groups of students 
run each of the five student investigations, prepare 
separate reports and then report back to the group 
as a whole. After this, you may wish to carry out 
some of the more sophisticated investigations found 
in the RESOURCE MANUAL. 


2) For those teachers with access to a single teletype only: 


The great flexibility of USPOP presents a problem, 
Each single investigation requires approxmiately 
45 minutes for a single group of students. As a 
result, for a given double laboratory period, a 
maximum of from 6 to 8 students (working in teams 
of 3 or 4) can make use of the computer. Below 
are two alternative suggestions, from teachers in 
a similar teaching situation, that have proven 
successful: 


a) Rotate your class through the USPOP investiga- 
tions. While one or two groups are working on 
USPOP, the other students can be carrying out 
related traditional laboratory exercises; in 
succeeding weeks let the other students use 
the computer. USPOP materials have been 
written in such a way so as to encourage 
students to investigate independently. 


b) Have the entire class explore a single USPOP 
student investigation, but divide the labor. 
Since each investigation is written in such 
a way as to require from 4 to 8 trial runs 
before a conclusion can be reached, you might 
have each team of students make one or two 
trial runs and prepare a report of results 
for the entire class. This approach can be 
even more instructive than the individual 
approach, depending on the teacher's planning 
and preparation of such tasks as organizing 
each group's role, preparation of appropriate 
summary tables for the collection of data, 
and class preparation for the students’ roles 
as demographers working as a team to solve a 
complex problem in a minimum amount of time. 


B. 


studies. 


Using USPOP for Project Work or Individualized Instruction 


Most students should be encouraged to work with one or more of the 
investigations in the STUDENT MANUAL before attempting more sophisticated 
In the accompanying RESOURCE MANUAL, there are several advanced 


investigations designed as open-ended experiments for the individual 


Student. 


Some students will want to use USPOP on their own. 
is suggested that the student be given the background materials in the 


RESOURCE MANUAL as a source of ideas for alternative investigations. 


addition, the student must be aware of the USPOP model assumptions, also 


found within the RESOURCE MANUAL. 


C. 


USPOP as a Classroom Tool 


While designed as a laboratory simulation, USPOP may also be useful 
to the teacher who neither has the time nor the computer facilities for 


individual or group use of the program. Below are concepts that the 
teacher might want to explore with an entire class by using USPOP. 


NOTE: 


1) 


2) 


one of USPOP's model assumptions. 
to first try any original exercise outside of class. 
requirements can be found in the RESOURCE MANUAL, 


Population forecasting. Have your students read the 
background materials in the STUDENT MANUAL and ask 

them to predict changes in fertility, birth distribu- 
tion, sex ratio of offspring, and mortality (especially 
infant and old age). Prior to using USPOP in class, 
discuss their decisions, and when agreement has been 
reached, use USPOP to make the resultant projection. 
Remember, it is wise to compare their projection with 

a control. A good comparison might be conditions in 
the future, should the 1970 conditions remain constant. 


Zero population growth (ZPG). There are several inter- 
esting (and surprising) aspects to this subject. You 
may want to explore the following questions in some de- 
tail: a) Will ZPG occur if fertility falls to 2 children 
per family, and b) What changes might result in ZPG immed- 
iately? For a general approach to this problem, see the 
ADDITIONAL STUDENT PROJECTS Section in the RESOURCE 
MANUAL. 


In this case, it 


owe 


Due to USPOP's extreme flexibility, teachers may accidentally violate 
For this reason, you are encouraged 
A list of model 


IV. SAMPLE RUNS 


The runs below can be used to check the performance of USPOP once 
it is loaded in your computer. 


SAMPLE RUN #1 illustrates the many variations possible with USPOP. 
Explanation of student responses are enclosed in boxes. 


RUN #1 











IF THE STUDENT 
ANSWERS ANY OF 
THESE QUESTIONS 
WITH "1" (YES), 
THEN THE COMPUTER 
WILL READ IN 1970 
DATA STORED WITHIN 
THE PROGRAM. 


DO YOU WANT REPORTS 1) EVERY 5 YEAR INTERVAL 
OR 2) SELECTED YEARS 71. 








YEAR AT START OF PROJECTION 71972 





DO YOU ASSUME STANDARD FERTILITY C1=YESO=NQ) 71 
WILL FERTILITY (1) STAY AT 2-45 | OR (2) ‘CHANGE SLOWLY 
TO A NEW LEVEL 71 








‘DO YOU ASSUME STANDARD BIRTH DISTRIBUTION (1=YES,9=NO) 
DO YOU ASSUME STANDARD SEX RATIO C1=YES,9%=NO) 71 
DO YOU ASSUME STANDARD MORTALITY (1=YES,9=NO) ?1 


DO YOU ASSUME STANDARD POPULATION C1L=YESs@=NO) ?1 


STUDENT HAS SELECTED 
THE LONG REPORT. 






REPORT:1)SHORT 2)LONG 3)GRAPH 4)CHANGE ASSUMPTIONS 5)END 72 









YEAR 1979 POP= 284-8 MILLION FERTILITY 245 
AGES FEMALES <-MILLIONS=> MALES PCTe TOTAL 
G@- 4 Bed 8e7 Be 
5..°.9 9-7 19.1 De 7 
19 = 14 149-2 14-5 1961 , 
is = 2.9 9e4 9e7 904 IT GIVES POPULATION 
24 = 24 8.5 Be6 S.3 IN THOUSANDS FOR 
25 < 29 629 68 6e7 EACH COHORT AND 
34 = 34 508 506 566 THE AGE DISTRI- 
a3 = 39 507 5<5 5e4 BUTION IN THE 
AA - 44 Gel 528 508 POPULATION. 
45 - 49 602 5-9 5-9 
a0 = 3&8 5-7 5-3 tes 
22 * $9 5.2 407 48 
64 - 64 46 4 42 
65 = 69 307 3 303 
70 = 74 3.2 223 2e7 





BY TYPING 4, THE STUDENT IS ALLOWED 
TO ALTER AN ASSUMPTION AND THEN 
RESUME THE PROJECTION, 






REPORT! ?4 





WHAT DO YOU WANT TO CHANGE? | 
1-FERTILITYs 2-BIRTH. DISTRIBUTION, 3-SEX RATIO. 
A=-MORTALITY» 5 POPULATION ?4 





CHANGE IN MORTALITY OCCURING IN FEMALES THIS ANSWER MEANS THAT THE 
GROUPS (FROM AGEs TO AGE) 765394 STUDENT WISHES TO ALTER THE 
GROUP CURRENT NEW VALUE MORTALITY RATES FOR FEMALES 
DEATH/ 1499 BETWEEN THE AGES OF 65 AND 90. 
65 = 69 789 266 THE COMMA BETWEEN THE TWO NUM- 
70 + 74 #4Q164 2192 BERS IS IMPORTANT. 
75 AND OVER 33763 72389 






BY TYPING 9, THE STUDENT 
HAS INDICATED HE WISHES 
TO MAKE NO CHANGE IN MALE 
MORTALITY RATES. 









CHANGE IN MORTALITY OCCURING IN MALES 
GROUPS (FROM AGEs TO AGE) ?45a ' 






REPORT: 71: 

YEAR 1975 POP= 214.9 MILLION FERTILITY 2445 

REPORT: ?3 

YEAR 1989 POP= 227.2 MILLION FERTILITY 2645 
PCT. TOTAL POP. 


BeecccecesedSevscccceetiMeseccccelSeoenceve lt 





~~ FS ® oe 

i@ «+34 -« k 

15.2.4 9.» .s 

294 ~ OA «¢ - REPORT 3 PRESENTS THE AGE 
25 - 89 . ke STRUCTURE OF THE POPULATION 
30 = 34. < IN GRAPHICAL FORM. 

35 + 39 * * 

4A -«- 44 e 3 

45 <- 49 o * 

5G = 54 . * 

95 = 59 -¢ 

64 - 64 ® * 

65 - 69 ° * 

16 «+ 74 ® *& 

15+ « * 


SAMPLE RUN #2 illustrates the use of selected year reports. By answer- 
ing the first question with response "2", the student is able to skip reports 
and investigate a longer period of time more quickly. 


RUN #2 | 
—- DO YOU WANT REPORTS 1) EVERY 5 YEAR INTERVAL 

OR 2) SELECTED YEARS 22 

YEAR AT START OF PROJECTION 271973 

DO YOU ASSUME STANDARD FERTILITY C1=YESs9=N9) 22 

FERTILITY IN 1970 2724 

WILL FERTILITY €1) STAY AT 24 OR ¢€2) CHANGE SLOWLY 

TO A NEW LEVEL 72 | | 

WHAT FERTILITY WILL BE STABLE 22.96 

HOW MANY DECADES UNTIL FERTILITY REACHES 2.96 23 

DO YOU ASSUME STANDARD BIRTH DISTRIBUTION (1=YESs@=NO) 71 
DO YOU ASSUME STANDARD SEX RATIO C1=YES,9=NO0) ?1 

DO YOU ASSUME STANDARD MORTALITY ¢€1=YES,@=NO) 71 

NO YOU ASSUME STANDARD POPULATION C1=YES,3=NO) 71 

REPORT: 1)SHORT 2).LONG 3)GRAPH 4)CHANGE ASSUMPTIONS S)END 71 


YFAR 1970 POP= 29468 MILLION FERTILITY 24 
YEAR FOR NEXT REPORT 72494 


REPORT: ?3 
YEAR 23a POP= 264.2 MILLION FERTILITY 2246 
PCT. TOTAL POP. 


DevesvecceSevccvsed 1 Geescsuwe | Seecces e020 


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75+ o : 
YEAR FOR NEXT REPORT 72939 
REPORT: ?5 


ANOTHER PROJECTION (€1=YESs 9=NO) 22 


V. KEY TO STUDENT LABORATORY INVESTIGATIONS 


INVESTIGATION #1 WHAT EFFECT WILL CHANGES IN FERTILITY 
HAVE ON POPULATION BY THE YEAR 2000? 


This is a rather easy exercise. Intuitively, the student will hypothe- 
size that increased fertility will increase the population in the year 2000. 
To make this investigation more meaningful, ask your students (before they 
start to calculate) their age in the year 2000 and the number of children 
they want in their future families. (This last number equals fertility.) 


While many students will be able to hypothesize the results, they may 
be surprised at the large difference in population that would result if 
fertility climbed back to its 1960 levels. 


Additional Student Instructions 


Students should pick at least four values for fertility (values between 
2 and 4); all other factors should remain constant from projection to pro- 
jection, To speed student use of the computer, encourage each student to: 


1) use standard (1970) values for birth distribution, sex ratio, 
mortality and population. These can be supplied by the com 
puter program if the student responds to a question such as: 


DO YOU ASSUME STANDARD SEX RATIO (1=YES, @=NO)? 
by typing the number l. 


2) select the short report on population. This is done by typing 
the number 1 in response to: 


REPORT ? 


To make it possible for a large number of students to use the computer 
in a very short time, USPOP allows the student to skip all the years between 
1970 and 2000 before obtaining a report; this can be done by asking for reports 
only on selected years. For smaller groups,it is suggested that vou encourage 
students to get reports every 5 years. (See Sample Runs for illustrations.) 


After running each projection, students should organize their resulting 
data in a useful way, e.g., graphical techniques which give clear results. 
The sample results following illustrate two possible graphing techniques. 


POPULATION M nen 





Sample Results 


These results were obtained using the following fertilities (children/ 
women's completed family): 


5 (control) 


Nr WD 


Your student's results will vary with the particular values he selects 
to investigate. 


SOLUTION TECHNIQUE #1 SOLUTION TECHNIQUE #2 
POPULATION vs. TIME POPULATION IN YEAR 2000 
FERTILITY 
FERTILITY 
340 
& 320 
& 
< 
= 300 
Oo 
x 
5 280 
a. 
O 
a 
260 
IS970 I980 I990 2000 2.0 3.0 
YEAR FERTILITY 


Both of these graphs indicate the clear effect that fertility has on 
population growth. This is the reason that underdeveloped countries with 
population problems attempt first to control fertility. 


Sample Answers to Student Follow-up Questions - These are only sample 
answers. Actual answers will vary with the fertilities that your stu- 
dents have elected to study. 


1) IF FERTILITY OF WOMEN IN THE UNITED STATES STAYS NEAR 
THE 1970 LEVEL OF 2,45 CHILDREN PER FEMALE, HOW MANY 
ADDITIONAL PEOPLE WILL THERE BE IN THE YEAR 2000? 


Approximately /0 million people, assuming 
that all other factors remain constant at 
1970 levels. 


2) WHEW YORK CITY HAS A POPULATION OF APPROXIMATELY 
7 MILLION PEOPLE, HOW MANY NEW YORK-SIZED CITIES 
WOULD HAVE TO BE BUILT TO ACCOMMODATE THIS INCREASED 
POPULATION? 


About 10 large cities would be required if 
fertility remains at 1970 levels. A more 
likely outcome might be a further increase 
in the size of small and medium-sized com- 
munities. This natural increase of the 
population coupled with the flow to the city 
of the rural population has caused great 
concern on the part of urban planners. 


3) IF FERTILITY WERE TO REMAIN LOW (FROM 2 TO 2,3), Na 
WOULD THE PROBLEM OF EXTRA POPULATION BE AS 
PRESSING? WHAT IN YOUR RESULTS INDICATES THIS? 


If fertility were to fall to 2.3, we could 

expect about 10 million fewer people in the 
year -2000 than was projected above; this is 
a drop of about 15%. Should fertility drop 
still lower, even greater differences will 

result. 


4) IF FERTILITY WERE TO RISE TO LEVELS SEEN IN THE 
MID-FIFTIES, APPROXIMATELY HOW MANY ADDITIONAL 
PEOPLE COULD BE EXPECTED BY THE YEAR 2000 AS 
COMPARED TO THE CURRENT U, S. POPULATION? 


If fertility should return to about 3.7 children 
per completed family, we would expect an increase 
of 140 million people by the year 2000. This 
represents an increase of approximately 652. 


10 


5) WHAT RELATIONSHIP EXISTS BETWEEN 
FERTILITY AND POPULATION GROWTH? 


Fertility has a direct effect on population 


growth. The greater the fertility, the 
greater the growth, and vice versa. 


Additional Discussion Questions 
¢ How many children does the average female student want 
for her family? the average male? 
* Will more or fewer women in the future raise families? 
What will be the effect on fertility in either case? 
* Has information on television and in print affected the 
student attitude toward family size? 


* What would happen if the fertility fell below 2.0? 


(Use USPOP in class to solve this one. YOU AND YOUR 
STUDENTS MAY BE SURPRISED.) 


* How does USPOP help to plan for future ecology programs, 
the energy crisis, and so forth? 


11 


tinea nemensnttaeienntiibleleaioalipeenditnersiinimememnnio—e 
INVESTIGATION #2 WHAT EFFECT WOULD DELAYING THE BIRTH OF THE 


FIRST CHILD HAVE ON POPULATION GROWTH? 





We have found that most individuals feel that the time of birth should 
have no effect on the rate of population growth. This is not the case. 
While the effect is small at first, it is real, and over long periods of 
time the delaying of births can have a significant effect. 


It should be pointed out that the number of births to a female is 
exactly the same in all the cases investigated in this experiment. If 
a student should doubt this, have him investigate it for himself by ask- 
ing for the long form of the printout. 


Because the results are not intuitive and there are many possible 
birth patterns, this investigation is more difficult than INVESTIGATION #13 
but a student attempting to arrive at an original solution will almost 
always produce gratifying results. 


Additional Student Instructions 


These are provided so you might help those students having trouble 
setting up their investigation. 


Only birth distribution should vary from run to run. If you have 
your students use the EXPERIMENT PLAN SHEETS provided in the STUDENT 
MANUAL, it should be easy to check whether all other variables are 
being held constant. (It will be easiest for the student to set these 
other variables to 1970 values.) | 


Any birth distribution can be investigated. The only restriction 
is that the numbers for all the fertile ages should sum to 100. (Numbers 
Should be entered as percentages, not decimal fractions of 1.) Generally, 
it is best for the student to select distributions that show a clear 
effect: either few births in the early years or few births in the later 
years. REMEMBER, one of the runs should use the current 1970 birth 
distribution! 


Runs will be quicker if students select report form 1, but all these 
reports will give satisfactory data. 


The STUDENT MANUAL suggests to the student that he graph the results 
of each of his runs. You may instruct him as to the format. We feel that 
putting all runs on a single graph with use of different colors will make 
interpretation easier. (See sample results following. ) 


12 


e ® 
' Sample Results 
Actual results will differ according to the sets of assumptions that 


each student chooses to investigate, but the patterns should be similar. 
Consider, for example, the following sets of assumptions: 





TRIAL 

AGES 1 2 3 4 

10-14 efi) 33.2 .0 .0 
15-19 0 (14.3) 33.4 = 2 
20-24 n(33.8) 33.0 34 3 
25-29 t (28.5) a 33.0 i 
30-34 r (14.7) a 33.2 a 
35-39 o( 6.6) = 33.4 33.0 
40-44 1( 1.8) o2 2 33.4 
45+ ¢. .0 ot 33.2 


The resulting graph of POPULATION vs. TIME for each of these birth distribu- 
tions is given below: 





MOG TS? sobs: 2 “Ene y* SETH a 
_ weeeeeeeeeees CURRENT BIRTH ‘ 
ia MIDDLE AGE 3 Ps 

x — LATE BIRTHS oy 

Z 

= 

a 

= 

= 

z 

fo) 

> 

ace 

oa 

oO 

O 

ae 

I970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 


13 


Sample Answers to Student Follow-up Questions 


1) IF NO CHANGE OCCURRED IN BIRTH DISTRIBUTION, WHAT 
WOULD BE THE EXPECTED POPULATION IN THE YEAR 2030? 


Nearly 360 million people, assuming that all 
variables remained near 1970 values. 


2) DO YOU FEEL THAT LOWERING THE AGE AT WHICH MOST WOMEN 
HAVE THEIR FIRST CHILD WOULD HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON 
THE SIZE OF THE POPULATION? WHAT IN YOUR DATA SUPPORTS 
YOUR VIEW? 


Earlier births, especially in the teens, exert 
a large force for growth in an expanding popu- 
lation by an additional 40 million over what 
would normally be expected in the year 2030, 
if 1970 conditions were maintained. 


3) WOULD IT BE WORTHWHILE FOR GROUPS INTERESTED IN 
POPULATION LIMITATION TO ENCOURAGE WOMEN TO HAVE 
CHILDREN AT A LATER AGE? WHY? 


This is a matter of opinion. There are those 
in family planning who maintain that the only 
effective action is to reduce fertility; others 
point to examples such as Ireland where later 
births have been at least partially effective 
in controlling the rate of growth. 


4) COULD HAVING CHILDREN AT A YOUNGER AGE BE RELATED 
TO ANY OF THE OTHER VARIABLES SUCH AS FERTILITY, 
MORTALITY, SEX RATIO, ETC.? 


In general, it would seem likely that having 
children at a younger age would lead to in- 

creased fertility. Also, since younger mothers 
tend to have more boys than older mothers, this 
might lead to a changed sex ratio. In India, 

where many women become pregnant in their early 
teens, there is some indication that early birth 

is related to increased female and infant mortality. 


The practice of having children at an older age 
might lead to opposite effects. 


14 


5) IS THERE ANY GENERAL RULE THAT YOU CAN FORMULATE TO 
RELATE BIRTH DISTRIBUTION AND POPULATION GROWTH? IS 
THIS RULE SHOWN IN YOUR GRAPH? 


For a growing population, the later the children 
are produced in the mother's life, the lower the 
rate of population growth. 


As a follow-up in class, explore the effect of 
all chiidren being born to a single age group. 
Although this is an unrealistic assumption, it 
will produce a clearer picture of the birth 
distribution effect. 


15 


INVESTIGATION #38 WILL CHANGES IN INFANT MORTALITY 
AFFECT FUTURE POPULATION LEVELS? 


To carry out this investigation, the student must be able to vary infant 
mortality. Since we view the population in 5-year age groupings (cohorts), the 
student must adjust the interval 0 to 4 for both the males and the females. 
This is a more complicated task than is required for either of the previous 
investigations. If the student encounters trouble, consult the more detailed 
operating instructions given below. 


Our infant mortality rate, while a national disgrace, does not currently 
depress the national population growth rate to any great extent. If altered 
within the feasible range of change (see Sctentific American article, Aug. ‘71, 
p. 45) slight changes might be detectable by the year 2020. 


Should your students be concerned that they are not getting results, you 
may wish to reassure them that not all experiments seem to show the antici- 


pated result. No change 7s a result. 


Additional Student Instructions 


The student is asked to make from four to eight experimental runs using 
different mortality rates. All other factors should remain the same from run 
to run. If you have had the students make use of the EXPERIMENT PLAN SHEETS 
found at the back of the STUDENT MANUAL, you should be able to detect improper 
experimental design. 


In order to vary the mortality for infants, the student must answer the 
question "STANDARD MORTALITY?" with a "§$", representing NO. The computer pro- 
gram will then ask what female age groups the student wants to vary. A proper 
response would be "9,4" (from birth @ to age 4). The computer will give the 
student the old mortality rate in deaths per 1000 and ask for a new rate. 

Any number from % to 1000 can be typed. For this investigation it has been 
suggested that the lowest possible mortality rate is near 17.5, but allow the 
student to choose any rate he feels possible. After changing the female in- 
fant mortality, the male mortality should be similarly adjusted. 


Students may be encouraged to use Report Form 1 if speed is important, 
but Report Form 2 (long report) is desirable for this exercise, since the 
student can see the effect of infant mortality on those just born. 


The STUDENT MANUAL indicates three possible ways in which the data might 
be organized. It would be best to ask the students to try all three as a 
homework assignment. (See Sample Results following for the two graphical 
techniques.) 


16 


Sample Results 


Each student's results will vary from those shown here depending on 
the particular mortality changes the student elects to investigate. A 
student may choose to investigate the following situations: 
1) conditions of 1970 continuing 


2) decreased infant mortality of 227 


3) increased infant mortality of 207 


Results of these runs were organized into two different graphical for- 
mats. GRAPH 1 shows population size versus year; GRAPH 2 displays popula- 
tion in the year 2020 versus per cent change in infant mortality. 


3690 --- 22% DECREASE 

— _ UNCHANGED 
ns 20% INCREASE o 
320 i 
300 fe 
280 “ae 


IN MILLIONS 
\ 


260 A 
240 7 7 
220 


200 
I970 I980 I990 2000 2010 2020 
YEAR 


POPULATION 
\ 


GRAPH 1 


17 


POPULATION IN 2020 (MILLIONS) 


The absolute effects 
of 3 different infant 
mortality rates on 
population size are 
small as indicated by 
GRAPH 1; however, 
changes in infant mor- 
tality do affect popu- 
332 lation size, if only 
in a minor way, as 
indicated in GRAPH 2. 


33l 


330 


329 





328 


=20 -10 0 0D BW DD 
% CHANGE INFANT MORTALITY 


GRAPH 2 


18 


Sample Answers to Student Follow-up Questions 


1) IF A DROP IN INFANT MORTALITY OCCURS, WILL IT 
HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON FUTURE POPULATION LEVELS 
IN THE UNITED STATES? WHAT DATA DO YOU HAVE TO 
SUPPORT THIS CONCLUSION? 


The impact of infant mortality changes 
that are likely should prove to be very 
small. GRAPH 1 indicates the effect. 


2) IS THE EFFECT OF LOWERING INFANT MORTALITY MORE 
IMPORTANT OR LESS IMPORTANT AS TIME GOES ON IN 
AFFECTING TOTAL POPULATION SIZE? 


As indicated by GRAPH 1, the difference 
grows with time, 


3) IT HAS BEEN SAID: "THOSE CHILDREN WHO MIGHT HAVE 
DIED' DUE TO HIGH INFANT MORTALITY NOW LIVE LONG 
ENOUGH TO HAVE CHILDREN OF THEIR OWN." DO YOU 
FIND ANY PROOF FOR THIS STATEMENT? IF SO, 
INDICATE WHAT IN YOUR RESULTS BACKS UP THIS 
STATEMENT; IF NOT, INDICATE HOW YOUR DATA SHOWS 
THIS IS NOT AN IMPORTANT FACTOR. 


This is a matter of interpretation, If 
the student has collected data using 
Report Form 2 or 3, he may have a 
positive indication. Have the class 
look at such data and interpret it as 
a group. 


Additional Suggestion 


We have restricted the students to investigating likely changes; but 
unlikely changes are not impossible. Check the results of doubling infant 
mortality, halving it, or even greater changes. 


19 





INVESTIGATION #4 HOW DOES FERTILITY AFFECT THE AGE 
DISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION? 





Up to this point the student has been investigating population growth. 
We are now investigating something about the make-up of the population. 
The size of the population in the next two investigations is relatively 
unimportant. 


Most demographers feel that the fertility rate of a population is 
the prime determinant of age structure within a stable population. 


Before starting the student on this investigation, discuss the age 
structure of the United States population and possible reasons why there 
are sO many more young people than old. (A graph of U. S. age distribu- 
tion is shown in the STUDENT MANUAL under Investigation #4.) An alter- 
native approach is to have your students canvass their area to determine 
the age structure of the area. 


Additional Student Instructions 


These are included so that you might guide students who are unable to 
resolve the problems involved in designing a meaningful experiment. 


As fertility is the single variable that we wish to explore, it alone 
should be varied from run to run; all other variables should remain fixed. 
It will be easiest for the student if he maintains 1970 values for these 
other variables. 


For optimum results, the students should be encouraged to select a 
wide range of fertilities, from 0.0 to at least 10. eport form 3 (or 2) 
should be selected, since both these forms give results in terms of age 
distribution. 


The manner in which this data is organized is left up to each indi- 
vidual. For those having trouble, these suggestions might prove useful: 


1) Superimpose the graphs of age distribution for a 
certain year (e.g., year 2030). 


2) Approximate median age at a certain year for all 
your runs and organize a table showing the relation- 
ship of fertility and median age.* 


3) Organize the graphs of age distribution for a certain 
year, so that they are side by side for easy comparison. 





*Median age can be approximated by cutting along both axes of the graph and 
then along the line connecting the points. Hold the cut-out over a ruler 
edge that is in the direction of the y-axis (i.e., Per Cent of Population 
axis). Move the graph back and forth over the ruler until it is balanced. 
The intercept of the ruler and the x-axis marks the approximate median age. 


20 


¢ *% 


Sample Results 


Your students’ results will vary with the particular fertilities that they 
choose to work on. For example, let's assume that certain students chose to 
investigate the following fertilities: 


wie foe: 2 
Tisai 2 6 
T¥iai 3S = -2Z 
Triai-4 “= —i 


-45 (control) 


Each trial was run to the year 2020. Run the trial for a longer period of 
time if possible, since the longer the trial is run the clearer the results, 
those born before the institution of the new fertility rate being eliminated 
from the population. 


Results of age distribution in the population were determined in two ways: 
1) graph of population in the year 2020 versus age group, and 2) graph of median 
age versus fertility. 


O 
> 
w FERTILITY 
oO 
<_{ Be Fe © ereccccce 6 
Y 15 — 245 
z } ea 
= 
© 
< lO a be.) 
me 
- ‘ 
a ae / \ 
Be = _- ~ PRE ee ~~ 
oO ae ion, = 
5 a” ae ee ‘N 
i si ig 
= gi ne 
Li] oes 0 ee 
O ‘. 
o 
LiJ 
ee 0 os 
a tt Of $+ Qaem BT .oO mo tr Oo 
Sa het Pe ees SFT 
O “~ = w) Oo WwW \) 
a N 3 ogee + YO WO 2 @ R oe 
AGE GROUP 
The above graph indicates a general pattern in a population with a high fertility: 
the younger ages are dominant. In populations with low fertilities, there is 
generally either an even distribution or an old-age dominant distribution. 


21 


MEDIAN AGE IN YEAR 2020 


40 


This graph shows the 
relationship between 
fertility and median 
age. The higher the 
fertility, the lower 
the median age. In 


other words, there is 


generally an inverse 
relationship between 
fertility and median 
age of a population. 





| 2 3; °§ ro) 
FERTILITY (1970-2020) 


22 


6 


These are only examples of proper responses. Exact, correct responses 
will be determined by the particular fertilities the student has chosen to 
investigate, 


1) FROM THE RESULTS OF YOUR EXPERIMENT, WHAT EFFECT 
WOULD YOU SAY HIGH FERTILITY HAS ON THE AGE DIS- 
TRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION? 


High fertility causes the age distribution to show 
a larger percentage of people in the younger age 
classes. 


2) IN COUNTRIES WITH LOW FERTILITY, WOULD YOU EXPECT 
TO HAVE MORE OLD PEOPLE OR FEWER OLD PEOPLE OW A 
PERCENTAGE BASTS? WHAT IN YOUR DATA SUPPORTS 
YOUR OPINION? 


With a lower fertility, the population should show 
more old people. The data indicates that with low 
fertility, the population tends to be more balanced, 
whereas the United States with a high fertility 
shows an age distribution that has many more young 
people. 


3) FROM YOUR RESULTS, ESTIMATE A FERTILITY THAT 
WOULD RESULT IN AN EVEN AGE DISTRIBUTION 
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE POPULATION. 


In general a fertility close to 2.0 will result in 
a very even age distribution, if the fertility and 
all other factors remain constant over a long 
period of time. 


4) GIVE A POSSIBLE REASON WHY THE 1970 U.S. AGE 
| DISTRIBUTION SHOWS A DIP FOR THOSE AGES 30-39, 


The age distribution graph, found in the STUDENT 
MANUAL for Investigation #4, shows that the per- 
centage of people of ages 30-39 is lower than 
that of those immediately younger or older. It 
is hoped that the students will realize that a 
temporary drop in fertility 30 to 40 years ago 
might have resulted in this drop. This period 
roughly corresponds to the time of World War II 
and the Great Depression. (For exact fertility 
figures, see the RESOURCE MANUAL.) 


23 


INVESTIGATION #65 EFFECT OF MORTALITY ON AGE 
STRUCTURE IN A POPULATION 





Most students will feel that altering the mortality rates should affect 
age distribution in the population as fertility did in the last investigation. 
Surprisingly, mortality rates have only a secondary effect on the age dis- 
tribution. 


Students are to alter mortality rates for all age groups and view the 
results. Realism is not required; in fact,the students should examine a 
wide variety of changes, both increased and decreased mortalities. 


Additional information on mortality trends can also be found in the 
RESOURCE MANUAL and the STUDENT MANUAL. 


Additional Student Instructions 


The student must alter only mortality rates; all other variables should 
remain the same from run to run. It is easiest if the other variables are 
set to 1970 values. 


Students should be encouraged to use a wide range of mortalities. The 
larger the range investigated, the clearer the result. Mortalities should 
be changed for all age groups (as opposed to only infants, as in Investiga- 
tion #2). Reports should be obtained using either Form 2 (long report) or 
Form 3 (graph of age distribution); either of these Forms will give the re- 
quired information. If the student needs to work quickly, he may elect to 
get reports for selected years only. 


No direct instructions as to organization of data is given in the 
STUDENT MANUAL. You may wish to instruct the students to organize their 
data in a particular way. (See Sample Results for suggestion.) 


Sample Results 


Let's say a student chooses to investigate the following changes in 
mortality: 


Trial 1 -— doubled mortality for all ages 

Trial 2 - 50% increase in mortality for all ages 
Trial 3 - no change in mortality (1970 mortalities) 
Trial 4 - 50% decrease in mortality for all ages 


The results of all of these trials were compiled on a graph showing 
the age distribution as percentages of the total population predicted for 
the year 2020. Any other year might have been selected for analysis, but 
the longer the time period, the clearer the results, generally. 


24 


PERCENT POPULATION IN 2020 


MORTALITY (FOR ALL AGES) 


—~— DOUBLED 


e) 


— 50% GREATER 
CURRENT 
- HALVED 
-—~> bab 


/f 


a 

> 

~N 
aN 

O 
o 

+O eee es este shee & t 
ew ee A ee gO 

vu np ¢ $$ HO OG SF 

AGE GROUP 


Students should be able to conclude that while mortality has an effect 
on the size of the population, it does not radically affect the age structure 
of the population. The one exception is demonstrated in the oldest age 
category, but this is not a real effect since any percentage change for the 
oldest group represents a much larger absolute change in this group than in 
any other group. (The students may wish to use a constant change in mortality 
rather than a percentage change.) 


Students should be encouraged to compare this result with the results of 


Investigation #4, They should be able to conclude that fertility is usually 
the prime determinant of age structure in a population. 


25 


Sample Answers to Student Follow-up Questions 


1) IF THERE WERE A DRASTIC INCREASE IN MORTALITY 
IN THE FUTURE CAUSED, SAY, BY MASSIVE AIR 
POLLUTION, WOULD THE AGE DISTRIUUTION BE 
AFFECTED? IF SO, IN WHAT WAY? 


This question is open to interpretation. If the 
student interprets the question as meaning there 
will be a large increase in mortality for all 
ages, then his response should mirror the results 
of the experiment. However, if the student feels 
that the very young or very old or both will be 
particularly hard hit, then the student's response 
may be somewhat different. In class, it is sug- 
gested that you examine the student's assumptions 
relative to this question and then use USPOP if 
necessary to see if his conclusion is valid. 


2) IF ALL AGES HAD A LOWER MORTALITY, WHICH AGE 
GROUP WOULD SHOW THE GREATEST PERCENTAGE 
INCREASE? HOW DO YOUR RESULTS INDICATE 
THIS? 


If all ages were to have identical decreases in ? 

per cent mortality, then the older ages would \ 
benefit the most. This is indicated by Trial 4 \ 
of the Sample Results. 


3) IF CURRENT MORTALITY CONDITIONS CONTINUED 
FOR THE NEXT 50 YEARS, WOULD THE YOUNG 
(LESS THAN 30) STILL DOMINATE THE 
POPULATION? 


The current median age in the United States is 
less than 30. Should mortality and fertility 
stay at 1970 levels, USPOP projects a median 
age of about 37 in 2020. This indicates that 
the dominance of the young would be waning, 
but still strong. 





4) IF ALL MORTALITY RATES WERE TO DECREASE 
SUBSTANTIALLY, WHAT IMPACT WOULD THAT 
HAVE ON THIS COUNTRY? 


The question is open to discussion. Try to 
channel discussion in such a way that the 
students must support their conclusions with 
their collected data. 


26 


VI. ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS FOR CLASS DISCUSSION 


Should the United States make population limitation a major aim > 


in future years? 


If the United States determines that it is necessary to limit 
future population growth, what factor(s) should be con- 
sidered of prime importance? 


In what ways has the United States adjusted its government and 
life style to reflect the large number of young people in 
the population? 


What changes do you feel necessary for the future? 


For additional ideas and investigations see the USPOP RESOURCE 
MANUAL: 


Readings 
Class exercises 


Further student investigations 


27 











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