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Huntington II Simulation Program — BUFLO 





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-@ ee cs | BUFFALO HERD POPULATION MANAGEMENT 


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_ STUDENT MANUAL 


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HUNTINGTON TWO COMPUTER PROJECT 


ah ale ae ©1974, State University of New -York 
‘Gevisea November 28, 1973) 


1 March 1974 


THE | ORK 0 OF THE HUNTINGTON TWO COMPUTER PROJECT IS PARTIALLY 
SUPPORTED BY ‘THE NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION, GRANT GW-5883. 





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BUFLO 
STUDENT MANUAL 


Table of Contents 


Be amerouuction to Bure ss 6k es ee ae 


II. COMPUTER LABORATORY GUIDE .....ee 


PART I: INVESTIGATING THE EFFECTS OF 
SPECIFIC HARVESTING POLICIES 


PART II: INVESTIGATING ALTERNATIVE 


STRATEGIES FOR ACHIEVING 
CERTAIN POPULATION EFFECTS , 


-III. Additional Investigation Suggestions . 


14 


16 






































E_ INTRODUCTION 10 BUFLO 


The Sntek<kaketean bison, oudlontty y but incorrectly, called the buffalo, 
or Plains buffalo, once existed in enormous herds on the prairies of Western 
Canada and the United States. Estimates of the population in 1830 range from 
30 million to over 100 million, with 60 million being a reasonable compromise. 
This is the greatest aggregation of large animals known to civilized man, 


We may obtain an appreciation of the size of the natural resource repre- 
sented by these vast herds by looking at their biomass. At an average weight 


of 1,000 pounds (some bulls exceed 2 ,000 pounds), 60 million buffalo represent 


a bioeee of 60 billion pounds, calsared: to a biomass of less than 30 billion 
pounds for the yrenent humes populatiog of the Unites mtetes, 


| From matbhiod viewpoint, the deamnaton of these creboat be represented the 
loss of a potentially major source of meat protein. A single buffalo could 
have provided the entire meat supply for five people for one year. 


The carnage seems more senseless when we explore the reasons for killing 
the buffalo. The prime motivation appeared to be the sale of buffalo hides, 


with the meat left to rot. A single hunter slaughtered from 20 to over 100 


buffalo in a day, depending upon his luck and the number of skinners he had 
working for him. He would only shoot as many as could be skinned that day, 
since wolves and coyotes would tear the hides of any left over. Of these 


aca over two thirds spoiled before they reached the tannery! 


Most hunters left the carcasses to the wolves, but a few pickled the 


_ tongues and parts of the hump and haunches for éhipadnt: East -- a harvest 


of aed 50 pounds of meat from an animal weighing over 1 ,000 “pounds. 


The destruction of feiinle buffalo from the 1830's to the 1890's was a 
particularly tragic aspect of our history. Three quarters of the buffalo 


_ killed were females. Perhaps this was because their meat was more tender, 
or their hides more desirable, or because they easier to catch. In any 


case, when a female buffalo was killed so was the a for her to 


= produce as many as 30 offspring. 


Oe cent Slaughter was reached in 1872 when national heroes like 


"Buffalo Bill" Coty led the killing of more than 7 million buffalo. By 1887, 
only 200 buffalo were left and, finally, conservationists were permitted to 
save these survivors from extinction. The few thousand buffalo which roam | 


in protected areas of the Western United States are descendants of paete 
puree 


In this STUDENT MANUAL wisi investigate the consequences of various 


_ harvesting policies - that might have been used to conserve this valuable 
resource. Could a large yield in buffalo products have been obtained without 


driving this species to the brink of extinction? 
e \ 
od 


- spring; they are dependent on their mothers for the entire first year of 


In order to plan your iateethee policies, it is important to under- y = 
stand something of the life cycle of the buffalo. Calves are born in the © & 3 





their life. The calf is able to stand up in 3 or 4 days and both the calf 
and its mother are then able to rejoin the herd, . 


Buffalo older than one year, het: younger than two, are called year-— 
lings. They are able to live without their mothers, but er — on the 
adults for protection, | 


In the bu€falo's third year, it is considered an adult. Nearly all | 
adults take part in the mating that occurs in August or early September. = 
Buffalo are polygamous, so one male will mate with several females. Thre... 6 
maximum number of matings that a male can participate in is about 10. 


Traditionally, the hunting of buffalo took place from the melting of 
the spring snow until the weather became harsh in the fall. When you set 
a harvest quota, the BUFLO computer program assumes that the harvest will 
be carried out within this time period. 


The BUFLO program uses several abbreviations and symbols to stand for 
the different ages and sexes in a buffalo herd. The ‘table below will help 
you to understand them. — ; 





| | GRAPH 
Adult Males | AM a 2 
Adult ¥oointés | AF | : 
Yearling Males : 3, oe | = 

“Yearling Females el | ‘ 
Calf Males ee = ou = 2 . 
Calf Senaias op | ‘ 





































a 2 are two : Pederet types of Sevcatt gest ons paaibie using BUFLO, 
PART 2g investigates both short and long-range effects of different harvesting 
(hunting) policies for their effect on the size and make-up of the buffalo 


herd. In PART II, which begins on p.14, BUFLO can be used to design alter- 


native strategies for achieving certain goals in herd size — growth. 


PART I: INVESTIGATING THE EFFECTS OF SPECIFIC HARVESTING POLICIES 





The buffalo hunters slaughtered all the buffalo they saw, no 
_ matter what the age or sex of the animals. This resulted in 
the near extermination of the millions of these animals that 
once roamed the entire country. Could the buffalo hunters 
still have harvested their meat and hides without destroying 
the buffalo? You will investigate this question by examining 
the att ece of pecvcettgg adult buffalo of a single ‘Sex. 


¥ 


2 
Se 
i « 


A. DETERMINE THE ‘EFFECTS OF HARVESTING ONLY 
ADULT MALES OVER A FIVE-YEAR PERIOD. 


Your objective is to determine how many buffalo can be har- 
vested over the five-year period without lowering the the total 
Red population. 





INFORMATION ON INITTALIZATION OF THE MODEL -— PROCEED As FOLLOWS : 


You will be saked to ‘choose a es of herd management ,_ either (1) total 
freedom of herd control, or (2) automatic safeguards for herd population, 


a ee ee 
/ 7 . ” 
SEAN UY 2M Ot 3, SE 


ee Select total freedom of herd control (choice 1), 


tee oe are will then be soked "YEARS FOR OBSERVE, CHANGE POLICY, REPORT?"., 
S heapand by typing s numbers separated by commas. The first number specifies — Sa 
the number of years that you wish to study the buffalo herd. The second and Se 
third numbers specify how often you wish to change the harvesting poltey 1 ind => 


obtain Eee eation reports. 


 Chunait to observe the population for 5 years. Keep your 

aeaabtiey policy the same over the 5-year period and obtain ge a 
a population report each year. When the computer asks for ee a 
"YEARS FOR OBSERVE, CHANGE POLICY, REPORT?" type 5,5,1. Sees 


oe you will be asked carrying capacity. 


ee = 





Se Set the carryiee Sapettty equal to 40 million. This is 

the largest number of buffalo that the winter range can 

_ support. Enter this number by typing 40E6 when the computer 
ae for Sos capacity. 


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° Select any starting year -- 1860, for example. — 


° Initialize the buffalo by total herd. This is choice Di 
_ For your first few runs, initialize by total herd | rather 
than by breakdown. | 


* Set the total herd size to 20 million. This can be done 
by typing 2056. : 


> a 
Next you will set a quota. The "quota" is the maximum amount of 
buffalo you choose to harvest. Se . 


© Set a harvest quota for adult males only. They are 
symbolized by "AM." The computer will print: 


A AM 7569000 ?- 


7560900 is the total number of adult male buffalo, 
the question mark (?) is asking how many of the 
adult males do you want to harvest each year? 
Harvest enough males to keep the herd size near 
20 million. You may need to make several runs to 
get this herd size. 2 


On the right side of the page, a graph is printed under the heading: 
"PERCENTAGE OF ORIGINAL POPULATION". You may consult this graph to see 
changes at a glance. The change in the adult population is symbolized by. 
the letter A. Yearlings are symbolized by Y, and calves by C. If the 
mark moves to the right, the population is rising. As it moves to the 
left, the population is falling. | 


¢ Enter your most successful run on ‘the data sheet 
found on the next page. 
































— Name__ 





HARVESTING ADULT MALES ONLY (FIVE-YEAR PERIOD) 


CARRYING CAPACITY = WOME ck oars Ki 





YEARS FOR: | | 
OBSERVE, CHANGE POLICY, REPORT: = 55) 5) 2 





Initial herd size = 





Harvesting Policy: 


Adult males only: _ 3 ae per year 
Total harvest over five-year period: 


Fill in chart below using your most successful attempt. 


Starting Final Ee a over 
| oz _ Symbol. Population Population © a years 















Adult Females 






Yearling Males 







Yearling Females 









Calf Males 







Calf Females 






| Total Herd Population 


_ Conclusions: 

















DETERMINE THE EFFECTS OF HARVESTING ADULT MALES. 
ONLY, OVER A 25-YEAR PERIOD (LONG TERM). | 





Often it is possible to have a harvesting toy work 
over a short period, but cause serious harm over a 
longer period of time. Is this the case with harverting 
the male buffalo? Again, harvest as many as possible 
without lowering the total — below 20 million. 


Proceed as you did on the Se jag oy wk the following | ee 
changes: 3 | - 


Observe population over 25 years and do not change | 
harvesting policy over the 25-year period. Obtain — | = a 
population reports every 5 years. This can be done 
by entering 25,25,5 for OBSERVE, CHANGE POLICY, 
REPORT? | 
Remember you are to keep all other factors the same as in the 
first investigation. Your goal is to get the maximum harvest 


for the buffalo hunters and yet not to lower the total popula- 


tion of the herd. 


Collect your final results using the data sheet on the next 
page. 














ae 

















-‘Name_ 
ei 


HARVESTING ADULT MALES ONLY (25-YEAR PERIOD) 


CARRYING CAPACITY = _ — 40E6 


YEARS FOR: | 
OBSERVE, CHANGE POLICY, REPORT? 25.529 4 5 





feitial herd size = 
Harvesting Policy: 
Adult males oii = | per year 
_ Total harvest over 25-year period 


Fill in chart below using your most successful attempt. 


















Final 
Population 


Starting 
Population 


Change over 






Adult Females © 





Yearling Females 








Calf Males 







Calf Females 






‘Total Herd Population 


Conclusions: ie oar 














DETERMINE EFFECT OF A HARVESTING POLICY IN 


WHICH ONLY ADULT FEMALES ARE HARVESTED. 


Carry out both a 5<year and a 25-year study similar to 
the previous two investigations EXCEPT you will attempt 
to maintain a constant population by harvesting ADULT 
FEMALES ONLY. BUFLO symbolizes Adult Female by AF. 


When you obtain a satisfactory result, record your results on the 
appropriate data sheet on the following page and answer the fol- 
lowing questions: 


1) If you were a buffalo hunter interested in the 
continuance of the herd, would you harvest 
males or females? 


2) Why is there a difference between harvesting 
males and females? 














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_ HARVESTING ADULT FEMALES ONLY (FIVE-YEAR PERIOD) 





CARRYING CAPACITY = 40E6 _ 
YEARS FOR: = = 
OBSERVE, CHANGE POLICY, REPORT: 5 , 5 , 1 








Initial herd size = 





Harvesting Policy: 


Adult females only: | per year 
Total harvest over 5-year period 


Fill in chart below using your most successful attempt. 


Starting Final Change over 
Symbol Population Population five years 





nie Males 
‘Adult Females 
Yearling Males 
Yearling Females 


Calf Males 


Calf Females 











ens 
ia naceatieety ork 
Nap oe 


-. | Total Herd Population 


Conclusions: 





"HARVESTING ADULT FEMALES ONLY (25-YEAR PERIOD) 


CARRYING CAPACITY = __40E6 


YEARS FOR: 
OBSERVE, CHANGE POLICY, REPORT: < 25 Sy 2a ag 


Initial herd size = : 3 | s 3 | eS 
Harvesting Policy: 

| Adult females only: per year 7 

Total harvest over 25-year period 


Fill in chart below using your most successful attempt. 
> | Starting Final Change over 
coe | z Symbol Population Population 25 years 


Adult. Females 









Yearling Males 







Yearling Females 







Calf Males 







Calf Females 












hip el 


'D. DETERMINE THE EFFECTS OF HARVESTING BOTH a 
ADULT MALES AND ADULT FEMALES OVER 5- AND —s— 
-25-YEAR PERIODS. 


As a buffalo hunter, you would be interested in obtaining 
the maximum yield of buffalo. So far we have examined 
the case in which the hunter is restricted to a certain 
sex. Would it be possible to get even higher yields by 
hunting both sexes, and still not lower the total herd 
size? 7 





Your objective is to design a hunting policy that will obtain a 
maximum harvest over 5 or 25 years. You may harvest any number 
of males and any number of females. | 


8 


Here are some ideas on how to proceed: 
Select to have total freedom of herd control. 


If you want the option of changing policy every year, 
type "1" for the second number, when the computer asks: 
"YEARS FOROBSERVE, CHANGE POLICY, REPORT?" If you want 
to keep your policy the same over the entire period, 
use the same numbers as in previous investigations. 


2 Set the carrying capacity equal to 40 million (40E6). 

ee ‘s Initialize by total herd and set the total herd size 

@ ; to 20 million (20E6). : 

Record your most successful attempts on the data sheets on the 
following pages. You should find it helpful to consult the 
graph on the right side of the printout. | 





= 





re 








; Ranntcten: Policy: (Describe in space below the policy that produced the 





+ 
_ HARVESTING BOTH ADULT MALES AND FEMALES OVER A FIVE-YEAR PERIOD 


CARRYING CAPACITY = ___ __40E6 


YEARS FOR: — se 
OBSERVE, CHANGE POLICY, REPORT: 5 


Initial herd size = 


maximum harvest without os the total herd size.) 


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Total harvest over 5-year period 
























Starting 
Population 


Final 
Population 


_ Change over 
five years 
Adult Males 
Adult Females 
Yearling Males 
Yearling Females 
Calf Males 
Calf Females 


| Total Herd Population | 


Conclusions: 








a 

















HARVESTING BOTH ADULT MALES AND FEMALES OVER A 25-YEAR PERIOD 








CARRYING CAPACITY = 40E6 
YEARS FOR: | | 
OBSERVE, CHANGE POLICY, REPORT: 25, 


Initial herd size = 





Harvesting Policy: (Describe in space below the policy that produced the 
maximum harvest without lowering the total herd size.) 














up Symbol Population Population 25 Years 
Yearling Females YF 


Conclusions: 








Yearling Males 
























3 3 “ os 


PART IT: INVESTIGATING ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES FOR 
_ ACHIEVING CERTAIN POPULATION EFFECTS 





Today man is faced with preserving the buffalo that 
have escaped extinction. People concerned with regu- 
lating the number of wild game animals are called 
game managers. They must be concerned both with the 
preservation and welfare of the animals in their care. 
Unfortunately, game managers cannot permit the buffalo 

- to reproduce without limit because most of the buffalo's 2 
natural habitat has been destroyed. Without human con- 
trol, the buffalo would soon run out of food and range. 


In the investigations below, you will take on the role of 
a game manager with a certain problem. You will be asked 
to devise ways of obtaining desired results. You will 
test your proposed solutions using BUFLO. 





A. SUPPOSE THAT A GAME MANAGER WISHES TO MAINTAIN 
THE SIZE OF HIS PRESENT HERD OF 26,000 BUFFALO. 


1) Think of several alternatives te has for achieving this 
goal, (Remember he can change his policy from year to 
year.) , 


a) 














| 


2) Explore each of your proposals for a period of at least 
20 years. Assume a carrying capacity of 80 thousand (8E5). 


3) Prepare your own data sheets to record the results of 
| your simulations, 


c 


14 


B. SUPPOSE YOU WISH TO DOUBLE THE PRESENT SIZE OF THE 
HERD OVER A PERIOD OF 20 YEARS. (ASSUME THE PRESENT 
SIZE TO BE 26000; CARRYING CAPACITY 800000.) 





1) State some alternative strategies: 


OF a 








2) Explore each of your above alternatives for a period of at 
least 20 years. 





3) Prepare data sheets to describe the results of your 
simulations. 


C. DEVELOP AND EXPERIMENT WITH SOME STRATEGIES FOR 
MAINTAINING THE FEMALE:MALE RATIO AT 3:2, 


1) | 
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<a ep i ciadansenant teri ik Rh es i a ga 


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15 





NOTE: 














III. ADDITIONAL INVESTIGATION SUGGESTIONS . ‘ 


Design your own investigations to answer the following questions: 


1) 


2) 


eS, 


24) 


5) 


What happens to a buffalo herd initialized 
above the carrying capacity? 


How many years will it take to totally eliminate * 
a herd of 20 million buffalo, if you: | : 


a) Kill all adults every year? 


b) Kill all yearlings every year? 
c) Kill all calves every year? 


Is it necessary to kill every buffalo in | 
order to cause extinction? 


What is the minimum number of males and females 
needed to start a growing population? 


he 


Is there a minimum male-to-female ratio 
required for high fertility? 





THE ABOVE QUESTIONS MAY NOT HAVE A SINGLE CORRECT ANSWER, ‘THE PARTICULAR 
ANSWER WILL DEPEND ON THE WAY YOU SET UP YOUR INVESTIGATION. | REMEMBER 
70 KEEP COMPLETE AND ACCURATE RECORDS. 








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