f 7 r
PRESS
REVIEW
The following articles are reprinted solely as items of interest for the independent evaluation by members of The Association of Time-Sharing Users and The
Association of Small Computer Users. The opinions, statements of fact, and conclusions expressed herein are not those of either Association.
THE NEXT COMPUTER
REVOLUTION
The first one, largely unseen, transformed
big business. The next one is taking place
in the home, the office and the corner store.
These tiny modules contain
programs for a Texas Instruments
hand-held computer. Other modules
con be purchased ond programmed
for a variety of functions, dependent
only upon the particular needs
of the individual owner.
by John Fletcher
RT HOME, you will hove on eorth sta¬
tion on the roof for satellite communi¬
cation uuith any other home eorth sta¬
tion in the country. Vour television set
will contoin o pouuerful computer that
regulotes your house's heating and
cooling systems, notifies fire deport¬
ment or police in on emergency, does
your taxes ond lets you beat it in o
gome of chess. Vour telephone uuill be
a data entry system ond calculator.
Rt uuork, everything uuill be computer¬
ized except the coffee breaks. Letters
uuill be typed, orders uuill be placed,
bills uuill be poid ond files uuill be
searched, all by computer. Rt the
neighborhood shopping center, the
Reprinted by permission from MAINLINER , June, 1978, Copyright © 1978, East/West Network, Inc.
smallest merchant will have more com¬
puting power at his fingertips than
was available in the largest and most
costly computer of 1960. He will use
it to keep track of inventory, to auto¬
matically reorder, to determine the
most profitable mix of goods or ser¬
vices, to maintain payroll records ond
— like everyone else — to calculate
taxes ot the lowest legol amount.
The timetable for this computer
revolution is uncleor. It began, in bits
ond pieces, only within the lost several
years. Its impact is growing rapidly,
and by 1988 will have transformed
most offices and many small busi¬
nesses. The effect on home life will
take longer, but by 2000 it appears
certain that computerization will be as
common as indoor plumbing. Indeed,
computers will control indoor —and
outdoor —plumbing to conserve ener¬
gy in heating water, to regulate auto¬
matic dishwashers and clothes wash¬
ers, to engage lawn sprinklers at the
optimum time.
Today, the technology to do all this
— and far, far more —exists and is
widely used by large corporations,
government agencies and universities.
They were the benefactors of the first
computer revolution, a revolution that
began in 1946 with the construction of
the first electronic digital computer, a
revolution so broad and deep that
these institutions — big business, big
government and big education —
could not function as they do today,
and in some areas perhaps not ot all,
without computers. Vet thirty-two yeors
into this revolution, most people re¬
main ignorant, distrustful, even fearful
of computers. The computer remains
an electronic ghost, a distant servant
thot cranks out phone bills and credit
cord statements, on infuriatingly un¬
responsive enemy that sends post-
due notices for $0.00 ond two copies
of a magazine after you renew your
subscription.
"(Everyone has o horror story to tell
about computers," says Dr. Cgil
Juliussen. a member of Texas Instru¬
ments' technical staff. "Rnd so when
you throw out the word computer'
they get scared. But programmable
video games in the consumer market
can change that. These games are
evolving into home computers. Rnd by
seeing the computer in the home,
people will become comfortable with
it. Their fear will go away when they
see their kids playing with the
computer.''
Indeed, in the home computer revo¬
lution the initial weapons will be
games and the shock troops will be
children. Computerized games that
utilize the screen of the home TV set
were introduced by Magnavox six
years ago and have recently mush¬
roomed in popularity. This year,
according to one estimate, consumers
will buy 10 million simple video games
worth $300 million, 200,000 program¬
mable games worth $250 million and
200,000 home computers worth $100
million. In just two years, sales of
simple games are expected to climb to
14 million units, sales of program-
mables to 8.5 million and sales of
home computers to 900,000 —
D
Li u 2000 it appears cer¬
tain that computerization in
the home will be as com¬
mon as indoor plumbing.
Uhotopruph Intel Cor purest ion
altogether, about $ 1.2 billion worth of This Intel microcomputer chip
computerized wizardry. is QS powerful as the large computers
Perhaps more important than video produced durin 9 the 1950s.
games is that children are learning
about computers in school and are
eagerly embracing them as port of
modern life. Most colleges and many
high schools have courses in computer
programming. Then, too, children and
young odults ore buying computer kits
and assembling their own data pro¬
cessing systems at home. The build-it-
yourself programmable electronic
computer is becoming to this genera¬
tion of youngsters what the R.C.
Gilbert chemistry set was to their
parents' generation. UUhereas the
smelly world of chemistry was the
old scientific frontier, the silent world
of electronics is the new one.
The early kits were sold largely
through mail-order. But soon special¬
ized retail stores opened ond began
selling kits and fully assembled com¬
puters: Computerland in northern Cali¬
fornia, The Computer Store in Massa¬
chusetts, Computer Power & Light in
southern Colifornio, plus countless
others. Initial soles uuere to computer
operators and programmers uuho
uuanted their ouun computers ot home.
Soon, smoll businessmen, profes¬
sionals and young hobbYists become
I @t the touch of a button,
people will be able to pro¬
duce Prom their television a
printed copy oP "Hamlet"
or o rerun oP "The Gong
Show."_
o port of the clientele. "The parents
who come in ore real I y flabbergasted
ot uuhat o computer con do," soys
L oren Moore, manager of Computer
Pouuer & Light's Studio City store in
Los Angeles. "But the kids aren't. TheY
sit right douun and start uuorkmg uuith it.
The parents try to slouu them douun,
SQYing, 'Don't touch the keYS, it might
blouu up.' But the kids soy, ’No, it
uuon't,' ond start banging away. So
uue believe that the young genera¬
tion uuon't be fearful of computers
ot oil."
Although virtualI y oil the experts
agree that computerization to one
degree or another uuill eventually
come to the average American home,
there are differences in opinion as to
uuhen and houu. Some believe the
computer uuill take tuuentY or thirty
years to make significant inroads,
while others see this happening uuith¬
in ten years. Then, too, some experts
believe that this computerization uuill
take the form of a single pouuerful
unit, just as most homes have a single
centralized heating system. Others,
using electrical motors as their anal¬
ogy, believe that the home uuill have
many small computers.
"The people uuho uuill undertake
real computer programming them¬
selves for home and personal use are
relatively small in number," soys
Frederic G. UUithington, a senior staff
member of Arthur D. Little, Inc., the
Boston-based consulting firm. "The
big market in the home is uuhen the
computer disappears into other prod¬
ucts that do things people uuant,
such as control the home heating sys¬
tem, its hot uuater system and so on.
And that is going to be long in coming
because you can't put it into present
homes very uuell. Vou hove to hove the
basic systems designed to be con¬
trolled by computer, ond that hos to
happen before the house is built."
In the view of Lorry UUells, president
of Creative Strategies, Inc., a Son Jose
consulting firm, "There are really not
that many things that a consumer
needs to do in the home uuhere a
programmable computer can be a
really big help to. him. And very feuu
people knouu houu to program. So I
don't see the true home computer
being that close. But in micro¬
processors—nonprogrammable com¬
puters—it's o different story. UUe're
getting microprocessors in more ond
more consumer products—uuoshers,
dryers, automobiles, ovens, security
systems, television sets, o lot of dif¬
ferent places." UUells, too, believes
that home computer programming uuill
hove to wait until the present young¬
er generation is well-established in
homes of its ouun. "It uuill take o gen¬
eration to change," he soys. "Tuuenty
or thirty years from nouu, computers
uuill permeate the home, but not ten
years from nouu."
Horry Edelson, o research vice presi¬
dent uuith the brokerage firm of Drexel
Burnham Lambert in New Vork, sees
the change being sooner and deeper.
"Some smart home builder is going
to start uuiring his neuu houses for o
centralized computer to turn on and
off lights automatically, to call the
police deportment in cose of a break-
in ond so on. And the idea uuill catch
on very fast. It certainly didn't take
long for calculators or video games
to catch on, and a home computer
makes a lot more sense. So I think
over the next ten years or so, the
computer uuill have a major influence
in the home.
"In addition," he continues, "very
closely tied to the use of the computer
in the home uuill be the use of com¬
munications. Instead of uuiring each
city for cable TV, which is very costly,
uue uuill leapfrog that and send infor¬
mation via satellite to each home. I
expect that each home uuill have an
earth station on its roof or in the yard,
uuhich uuill enable the people to re¬
ceive programming and to communi¬
cate uuith anyone else in the country."
Beyond that, some experts see the
day —perhaps uuell into the twenty-
first .century— uuhen the computer,
satellite communications and other
modern technology uuill be joined
in a system that uuill make each tele¬
vision set a printing plant. People uuill
have neuuspapers, magazines, even
personal letters printed almost in¬
stantly ond in full color. A modest
apartment uuith a table top set uuill
hove the information storage capacity
of today's neighborhood library; a
house in the suburbs uuith o console
model uuill rival the Library of Con¬
gress. At the touch of a button, people
uuill be able to produce a printed copy
of "Hamlet" or o rerun of "The Gong
Shorn."
Houuever huge ond exotic the home
market may prove to be, at the mo¬
ment it is far smaller and grouuing less
rapidly than the small business mar¬
ket. During the lost feuu years, smoll
businessmen, independent merchants
and professionals on the one hand,
and computer manufacturers and mar¬
keters on the other have discovered
each other. The field was pioneered
by smoll companies, notably Basic/
Four, plus such others os Imsoi, LUang
Laboratories, Lomac, Qantei ond In¬
telligent Systems Corporation. Then,
too, the retail computer stores have
been selling mainly to smoll busi¬
nesses. Nouu, uuith the market esti¬
mated ot $2 billion or more o year, the
gionts ore moving in: General Electric,
IBM, Burroughs, Hewlett-Packard, NCR,
TRUU and, through its Qyx division,
even Exxon, the oil company. As a re¬
sult, the traditional lines of division
within the industry are blurring. Until
recently, big companies uuith exten¬
sive marketing and softuuare capa¬
bility—companies like IBM —built
"main-frame" computers: big, super¬
fast machines that took three to five
years to develop and cost from
$100,000 to $5 million or, in special-
purpose configuration, $25 million.
Smaller companies like Digital Equip-,
ment and Data General dominated
the field of minicomputers, uuhich
uuere small computers that typically
required only tuuo years of develop¬
ment time ond cost under $100,000.
The semiconductor manufacturers like
Intel, uuhich marketed the first micro¬
processor, and such others as Nation¬
al Semiconductor, Texas Instruments
ond Fairchild Eamero S Equipment,
had the microprocessor/microcomput¬
er market to themselves.
The microprocessor/microcomputer,
uuhich further cut the size ond cost of
electronic data processing, changed
all that. The microprocessor is a com-
puter-on-o-chip that cannot be pro¬
grammed uuhereas the microcomputer
is o chip that con be programmed.
They both opened neuu markets and
spauuned increased competition.
Makers of minicomputers used micro
technology to upgrade their products
to compete with mainframe models.
Companies whoso products utilized
micro technology began invading the
mini market. And mainframe makers
computer is today's
version of the Old LUest's
Colt .45. It is the great
equalizer.
expanded downward into minis, again
vio micro technology. "The original use
of microcomputers was in controlling
industrial machinery," soys Juliussen
of Texas Instruments. “Nouu, they ore
in controls of home appliances like
microuuave ovens ond dishuuashers.
And they ore moving into the smoll
business area, for use in uuord proces¬
sing, accounting, inventory control
ond so on."
The applications in smoll business
appear endless. An attorney's office
con file information on a complex cose
ond retrieve ond categorize it within
seconds. A mail-order house con auto¬
matically prepare individually typed
letters from basic formats stored in
its computer. Small contractors can
speedily compile bids. A physician or
dentist can keep hts office's business
records up-to-date by computer. "No¬
body has yet dreamed of all the appli-
cations that are possible,'' says
Bdolson of Drexel Burnham Lambert.
€delson looks to the day when
small retailers will be computerized
by their distributors, who would hope
to lock-in a customer by providing
him with computerized inventory
control and ordering capabilities.
Already some distributors hove done
this forrelatively large retail customers,
and Gdelson believes the practice will
eventually reach the level of the corner
store. "For example," he soys, "take
a pharmacy, which hos thousands of
items. Let's say the druggist stocks
ten units of a certain item ond wants
to reorder whenever he gets down to
three. UUithout o computer, he has to
constantly monitor his shelves. But if
his cosh register were on electronic
point-of-sale terminal and kept track
of each sale by code number, then at
the end of the day the druggist could
get a printout that would tell him
which items he has to reorder. If the
system were really sophisticated, it
could automatically reorder directly
from the distributor."
In the professions, the impact could
be egually great. If medical books
were converted to computerized infor¬
mation, a young doctor could have at
his fingertips the same store of case
histories that his older colleagues took
years to acquire. An architect, working
alone with o graphic display and
stress simulator, could dash off varia¬
tions of a design far faster than a
battery of draftsmen and engineers
using manual methods. And a small
law office using a computer could have,
in many respects, the same manpower
of a much larger competitor. Instead
of hiring law clerks to search a case
file, an attorney could query his com¬
puter. Or, as at least one attorney
already does, use it in liability suits
to compute stress and failpoints in
machinery. "The computer is often
referred to as today's version of the
Old UUest's Colt .45," says computer
retailer Loren Moore. "It is the great
equalizer."
Still, businessmen and profession¬
als ore wary of computer systems.
Price is one reason. A version of the
IBM Series/1 sells for $29,000; so
does Bosic/Four's Model 200; Pertec
Computer's MITS 300/50 is priced at
$16,000, while its 300/25 model is
$11,500; and Computer P&L sells a
system for $8,000. These systems are
not directly comparable to one another,,,
are all priced for lower than equivalent -
systems of one or two years ago and
are hardly impulse items. Another
problem, and one that is expected to
prove more thorny, is that of program¬
ming. No computer works until it is told
? precisely whot to do ond how to do it.
I Vet small businessmen and profes-
i sionals, just like almost everyone else,
T know virtually nothing about computer
- programming. "The problem is always
5 programming the small business
/ machine,'' explains UUithington of
Arthur D. Little. "Cven though the areas
are the same from one company to
another — receivables, payroll, in¬
ventory and so on — each guy wants
to do his own thing, has his own
particular gimmick that he wants to
use."
Some manufacturers are accom¬
modating this by making it easier
and easier for a novice to write his
own program. "As the product evolves,"
says UUithington, "you will be able to
sit down in front of the screen and
push a button and the screen will say,
'Hello, let's write o program. And
it will lead you through all the options
available and pretty soon, after an
hour or so of talking to the machine,
you have your program ready."
Regardless of how the program¬
ming situation is resolved, it is clear
that computers in small businesses,
in the professions ond in the home
will grow in use, decline in price and
increase in impact. "People's lifestyles
will change," predicts Gordon Bell, a
vice president of Digital Computer
Corporation. "Computers will be in
every telephone, in every typewriter,
in every copying machine, in every
mechanism." Like the electric light
bulb, automobiles, airplanes and
television, computers will change the
way people live and earn'a living,
the way they relate to one another
and to themselves. The computer revo¬
lution, like the industrial revolution,
is likely to have far more impact than
those living through it can imagine, o
John Fletcher is a Los Angeles-based free¬
lance business writer whose work hos
appeared in a number of notional
magazines.
By focusing a light wand upon a selected code, o malfunctioning computer is cataloged and its
problem analyzed instantly, fl similar technique can be applied to inventory control where, for
example, the sale and the reduced number in stock of a purchased product is recorded automatically.
