From the simulation results of the Energy Modeling Forum's recently completed project on US greenhouse gas emission mitigation policies, this paper estimates and examines welfare effects of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) pricing policies, fuel and technology cost changes, higher electricity demand growth, and limited nuclear generator lifetimes. Eight of the models in the study reported outputs sufficient to estimate damage from CO 2 , sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitrogen oxides (NO X ), and methane, and three of those eight reported outputs sufficient to calculate consumer surplus, supplier profit, government revenue, and therefore total social surplus. Over approximately thirty years, the four CO 2 tax policies reduce emissions enough to reduce estimated CO 2 damage by $1 to $1.5 trillion, SO 2 damage by $1 to $1.3 trillion, and NO X and methane damage by smaller amounts, based on averaging the results from the relevant models. The estimated non-environmental social surplus cost of each of these policies is between 23% and 29% of its environmental benefit. The CO 2 cap-and-trade scenario, modeled after the Clean Power Plan, reduces estimated CO 2 damage and other emission damage each by $0.4 trillion, at a non-environmental social surplus cost estimated to be 17% of the environmental benefit. Changing the natural gas price changes SO 2 damage more than twice as much as it changes CO 2 damage. Estimated methane emissions move in the same direction as CO 2 emissions in every scenario other than the low natural gas price scenario, in which the methane increase counteracts an estimated 27% of the benefit from the CO 2 reduction but only 5% of the total net benefit. In addition, the paper explains the set of assumptions and methods used to estimate environmental damage, and briefly explains how the non-environmental parts of total social surplus can sometimes be computed from more common results if necessary.

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