Wild mushrooms contribute to a variety of ecosystem services. The expected warmer and drier conditions for the Mediterranean region as a consequence of climate change, are raising concerns about future mushroom productivity due to potential reduction of soil water availability for fungi. The aim of this study was to increase our understanding of the interaction between climate and soil moisture in relation to their impact on mushroom productivity in Mediterranean forests. Mushroom yield data were obtained from 28 permanent mushroom inventory plots intensively monitored in Maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) stands of northeastern Iberian Peninsula. Annual productivity of total, edible and marketed mushrooms was obtained from measurements conducted every week during the autumn fruiting season for years 2008–2015. Historical weather conditions were obtained through data interpolation from meteorological stations. Soil moisture data were obtained from continuous plot-level measurements. A process-based soil water balance model was used to predict soil moisture under two climate change scenarios, using the predictions of two different regional climate models. Mixed-effects models using either precipitation or soil moisture as predictors, in combination with other weather variables, were fitted to annual mushroom occurrence and yield data. Mushroom yield was primarily dependent on weather and soil moisture conditions during the same month, with the exception of precipitation, whose effects exhibited a one-month delay. High temperatures limited mushroom yield at the beginning of the fruiting season, but tended to enhance it towards the end. The analysis revealed no apparent negative effect of climate change on long-term mushroom productivity, but rather the opposite (i.e., predicted median productivity of marketed mushrooms for 2016–2100 was 23–93% higher compared to the current yield), mainly due to an elongation of the fruiting season arising from the combined effect of increased precipitation at the beginning of the season and warmer temperatures at the end.