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tv   Fareed Zakaria GPS  CNN  October 22, 2017 10:00am-11:00am PDT

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this is gps, the global public square. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live from new york. we'll start today's show with a tour of the world's hot spots. north korea threatens an unimaginable strike on the u.s. iran's supreme leader reable re angrily to what he calls nonsensic
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nonsensical -- just what happened in that attack in niger that left four u.s. servicemen dead? also the economist just called him the world's most powerful man. and as each this week indicated, you might agree. inside the mind of china's president's xi jinping, as his country puts him back in power. and last week, donald trump made moves to get out of what he called the worst deal ever. the iran nuclear deal. now will he terminate what he calls the worst trade deal? i'll talk to canada's foreign minister about trump's nafta strategy. but first, here's my take. can burns and lynne novak's d z
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documentary on the vietnam war is filled with stories of soldiers on all sides of the conflict. but the most tragic aspect was to hear linden johnson on tape before full u.s. engagement, admitting that the war could not be won. president johnson's statements are -- in may 1964, when the united states had fewer than 20,000 troops in vietnam, serving only as advisers and trainers. this is what president johnson said to his national security adviser, george bun did. bundy. >> i stayed alast night thinking about this and the more i think about this, i'm afraid we're getting into another cakorea. i don't think it's worth
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fighting for and i don't think we can get out. >> johnson understood even then that vietnam was not actually vital and it could easily become a quagmire, and yet he could never bring himself to the logical conclusion, withdrawal. like so many presidents before and after him, he could not see how he could admit failure. and so johnson increased troops levels in vietnam, from under 20,000 to over 500,000. tearing apart indo china, american society and his own presidency. the example is dramatic, but it is generally true, in foreign policy, when the united states is con frofronted is a choice between backing down and doubling down, it follows the latter course. now in two crucial arenas, north korea and iran, donald trump has dramatically raised the stakes for the united states and for no good reason, simply determined to seem tougher than his
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predecessor, he has set out m maximal events. and an iran that starts making nuclear missiles. there is a small possibility that north korea and iran will simply capitulate because washington demands it, but more likely, if they don't, what will trump do? will he back down or double down? and where will this escalation end? trump seems to view international negotiations as he does business deals, he has to win. but there's one big difference, in the international arena, the other person also has to worry about domestic politics. he or she cannot appear to lose either. for any international negotiation to succeed, there has to be an element of win-win. otherwise the other side simply will not be able to seal the deal back home. but trump seems to think most of
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all, that he must win and the other must lose. there would have been a way to negotiate nafta easier, but he explained, trump needed to allow us also to declare system kind of victory, give us some concessions, instead he started out by humiliating us and made it impossible for president pena nieto to make a deal. no government can be seen to simply surrender to washington. donald trump's not doing real estate deals anymore. the arena is different. the conditions are far more complex and the stakes are higher,s a tron n s a tron nos . for more read my column this week. and let's get started. all right, let's get right to it.
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i have a really extraordinary panel. david sanger is the national security correspondent for the "new york times" and a cnn national security analyst. annmar mamarie slaughter's late book, the chess board and the web. and norman reuhl is almost surely a name you don't know, but he has been at the heart of american intelligence and foreign policy for the last 34 years. norman retired just nine days ago, from a career at the top echelons of the cia and the office of the director of national intelligence. in his last role he managed the portfolio for iranian international intelligence. i feel like i'm outing you and i hope that's all right.
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david, let me start with you on the niger issue. it seems to me we have gotten confused with these apologies and no and -- the real issue is that we still don't know what american troops were doing in niger. >> we don't, fareed and we also don't know what the strategic direction they're trying to accomplish is. as you say, it's gotten lost in the question of apologies and what the president said and now what his chief of staff has said. but the bigger issue is, we have reportedly 800 troops in niger, we have many others around africa, we're conducting operations mostly advise and train operations, but clearly they get into some combat roles. and one thing i think this administration has been quite poor at, the obama administration wasn't much better. sort of sitting down and explaining to the american
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people, why a president who ran on getting us out of small wars around the world, where we were taking casualties, still has them in there. there's a very good compelling rationale for them to be there. it but he hasn't offered it. but makes it all the more painful when you hear stories like the one of these four tragic deaths this week. it. >> and norman, it seems to me that the danger here is if you -- it's one thing if you're in a country like afghanistan, i know this is going to sound strange, that it actually has a legislation government, it has reasonable control over large parts of the country. once you're dealing with niger, mali, chad, there's some kind of conflict going on continuously, and falling in with the wrong tribal leader becomes quite large. >> i think it's important to recognize that this is a good use of american power, we're enabling partner this is very
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dangerous parents of the world, to do things that low inevitably protect the united states, it will prevent isis from establishing themselves in areas where they could proliferate their activity. >> as they get squeezed in iraq, this is where they're going to end up? >> i think it's a legitimate feel th feeling that this will spread into this part of the world. you need to worry about yemen, you need to worry about north africa, in order to ensure that this doesn't become eat hot bed against the homeland. >> do you agree that? >> i do, but i actually think exactly that, that terrorists move to ungoverned spaces, so by definition, you don't have a government who controls the space and you're going to have these kind of understand don'in.
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it's a continually shifting battlefield, and we have to be there preferably before a new branch of al qaeda or isis can take root. >> iran, david, the president has not just raised the stakes, but now we have a kind of ticking bomb. he has said i'm going to throw this over to congress, and congress better do something or i'm going to have to. >> what happens with congress, as we have seen with everything else this year, that congress does nothing, which is something they do pretty well. but there is the possibility that they may try to set some triggers as the president has suggested, where if iran takes certain activity, it would then reimpose sanctions. now of course if we reimpose sanctions unilaterally, that could violate the nuclear deal and thus gett eiran out of the
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nuclear deal. i think one of the big issues is that do we want the united states to be the first to violate the deal, not the spirit of the deal, but it's actual words and paragraphs and if we do, i think iran would have a bigger talking point. i have had diplomats come through in the last couple of weeks because they're actually going to side with the iranians. >> norman, you were the lead iran analyst, you coordinated all of this. what should we do about iran? enter we >> well, i think we should recognize that there's two pieces to this. the joint iranian deal revoked the nuclear program and placed them under extraordinary supervision that's a good thing.
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but iran's activity in the region--iran's missile program is unreasonably large and they have started to question ploy this technology in really bad ways in the region. and you have to think, if you're dealing with an adversary that's engaged in such mall lining activity, where do you do -- it's appropriate to look at the iran policy frame work right now and decide where do we take it from this point? >> wouldn't the answer be pocket the gains from the nuclear deal and focus on the other stuff, rather than relitigating the nuclear deal? >> absolutely, we need to keep jcoa in my view, we need to look at certain elements of the deal and see if they need to be extended. in 2020, iran's cadvanced
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conventional military -- is it a good thing that iran's missile program falls away from united nations oversight? i don't think so. i think that's a dialogue that should take place with congress and the administration and most importantly, a by partisan, calm response should be placed forward. >> anne marie? >> i don't disagree with the what here, that iran is misbehaving in the region, but i don't agree with the how. general mattis and general mcmaster agree on the value of the jpoa. but as david says, splitting ourselves off from the europeans and allowing the russians and others to say you violated the agreement is exactly the opposite of what we should be doing, we need to, as we have done successfully before, point others to where iran is misbehaving in the region and
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have a coalition that can put pressure on them. >> when we come back, i will ask david sanger about a piece he wrote about north korea. he says we have been fretting the about the wrong problem. kim jong-un has more of a problem than a nuclear problem. my dad's.
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something i suppose we should have realized, north korea has an incredibly advanced cyber warfare capacity, they can steal bank accounts, they can shut down movie studios, they can presumably attack the power grid. is this a part of our realizing that north korea is much more sophisticated? because a lot of what seems to have surprised people is the speed with which they have been able to acquire nuclear. is this because they have a pretty scientific establishment? >> they have a more scientific establishment and we have had a pretty good sense from the early '80s of the development of their nuclear capacity. i think it's fair to say that american intelligence was taken by surprise the speed of the missile improvements over the past few years and if you go back as late as 2009, there was pretty much a consensus that
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they were kind of nowhere in the world of cyber. and they have come way up the line there. so why is this scary? what's concerning about this? in nuclear, we understand the deterrent effect. if they lob a nuclear weapon at the united states, the state of north korea is gone an hour later. cyber is different. while nuclear is on an on, off switch, cyber is on a thermos t thermostat, you can move it up, you can move it down. their attacks so far, against sony, against south korea, the use of a new weapon that they called wannacry that devastated the british health system, was based on a vulnerability stolen from the national security agency in the united states. >> and norman, the problem is you can't attribute them, the russians still deny that they were involved in the election. unlike nuclear, where you can see where the missile came from, with cyber warfare, how do you deter somebody when they can
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claim it wasn't me. >> absolutely, the whole concept of developing a policy of deterrence against a cyber actor is very, very difficult. you don't know from whence the attack came, iran's attacks in the -- have touched on the financial industry, possibly a casino in the united states. have touched upon infrastructure in the united states. >> iran is? >> iran has developed a significant cyber program, and it has escaped much notice. and it's part of iran's asymmetrical response pattern and i submit it represents a severe threat to the united states. >> what is it about these new kinds of threats that are partially state, nonattributable? >> these are network threats, they're like terrorism threats. the hackers and the cyber in general relies on networks and
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you have to counter it with networks. we actually do, norman will know more about this than i do. but the fact is, after we knew that north korea attacked sony, there was evidence that the obama administration responded and it doesn't get reported. but ultimately, it's really about building network defenses. and you have to do that with private companies and even civic groups and the government together. it's not like nuclear, where it's government to government. it's where you need all different parts of society in defensive networks. >> are you optimistic we'll be a i believe to get there? >> i don't think we have much choice, i mean the future of war in so many ways is about controlling the information space and that's goin ee's goin the difference is we're not going to see much of that,itis not like building your traditional forts or tanks. it's again, network versus
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network and it's not going to be reported, but i think we have to get there. >> the key challenge it seems to me is to be able to do this with allies, with partners, this whole idea in this new world of going it alone is much more difficult. >> absolutely. in fact you need to have a deep partnership, and have a handle not only on combatting iran's nuclear doveefenses and this requires very close cr collaborations with the europe mean union. >> a big knew agenda. next on gps, puerto rico, puerto rico's economy was foundering before hurricane maria. now the whole island is devastated. we have a plan to save it. to make puerto rico great again, when we come back. >> tech: so you think this chip is nothing to worry about?
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now for our what in the world segment? on october trump tweeteded,
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texas and florida are doing great, but puerto rico which was already suffering from broken infrastructure and massive debt is in deep trouble. i know that tweet might sound graceless in the face of such great devastation. but on this case trump is right, puerto rico was an economic basket case before the storm. and i think there might be a silver lining for the people of puerto rico. hurricane maria may have offered a chance to rebuilt puerto rico. puerto rico's economy has actually been contracting, by roughly 1.5% a year for the last ten years. puerto ricans have been fleeing the island, to look for better opportunities on the main land, and that creates a vicious circle. a smaller population causes a smaller tax base that makes it harder for puerto rico to pay
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its debt. th hurricane maria just adds more uncertainty to puerto rico's deteriorating fiscal prospects. and who's to blame for this mess? well, there are a lot of candidates, on the federal level, congress passed legislation back in the 1980s, denying puerto rico the ability every other state has to declare bankruptcy. thus limiting it's financial options. only recently did that change to some degree. on the local level, weak -- it's worth noting that one of puerto rico's chief sources of income, tourism, has been flat over the past ten years, puerto rico's tourism industry grew by only 1 .2%. while jamaica and cuba grew between 3% and 5%. so what can be done? i would propose a kind of grand bargain, the federal government
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needs to bring something to the table, as do the people of puerto rico who have been through so much. the federal government should commit to a large multiyear multimillion dollar investment, which will restructure the island's debt. the leader of the commonwealth should also make some difficult economic reforms. many of these have already been suggested by economist an krueger. and it should focus on faking the island more -- krueger's proposals include reducing the cost of elect tris, and repealing the jones act, which has made shipping to the island more expensive. but the most controversial proposa proposal -- to make puerto rico more competitive, compared with other caribbean economies, right now according to krueger, the
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head of a family of three earning minimum wage on the island brings home 1,100 per month. while that same person can bring in $1,700 per month on welfare. is it any surprise that before the storm only 40% of adults were working. i know this is tough medicine for an island still struggling to get any sort of medicine. but puerto rico has huge potential and it will only be realized when its economy is properly prestructured and the island can provide a promising future for its residents. next on gps, as america withdraws from so many roles in the world, china has been filling the vacuum. we learned about china's real intentions in a speech by xi
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on wednesday in the great hall of the people in beijing, president xi jinping laid out his vision for china's future. he told the more than 3,000 people assembled in that hall, that china had entered a new era and it was now a great power and a strong power. china now stands firm and tall in the east, he said. the speech lasted more than three hours, so long that he was served tea in the middle of it. president xi's remarks kicked off the party's kick off. a staff writer for the new yorker, who writes frequently about china for the magazine. and elizabeth economy is the director of asia studies at the council on foreign relations. liz, i have to say, this seemed a turning point, historians might look back, because there's
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two areas where it seemed that xi jinping was very assertive. one that there was a chinese model and he talked openly about how countries might want to follow that implicitly rather than anything washington tells them. and second this idea that china is center stage on the world right now. >> both of these things are emblematic of xi's dream, it's the reassertion of the neutrality of china on the global stage. and he's making a move right now. i would also say this is somewhat opportunistic, of course, because it happens at a time when the united states is stepping back from its role as a global leader, president trump stepping out of a number of agreements and i think xi jinping sees it as an opportunity to step up and claim center stage. >> do you think this is part of a rising kind of chinese nationalism, is what xi jinping
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is saying resonate with the chinese people? >> i think that's probably part of this growing trend, i think it probably started before xi came on board, but xi has certainly done his best to harness that belief in the great chinese civilization, and the great manifest destiny, that china will rise again to the center of the world where it belongs, and recover it's former glory. i think in a sense, china somehow lost the sense that right belonged to the nation, and now there's a movement to recapture it. it's part of what's animating xi's philosophy. >> talk about xi as a person, he's very different. i had the opportunity to meet him once. the chinese leaders kind of seem like very colorless arrest tryst
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c aristocr aristocrats, he seems more ambitious than other politicians. do you think he will go for that third term, which would break what would become a precedence, i think is almost legally enshrined, two terms and you're out. >> i think your instinct is absolutely right, that confidence that he asserts is very, very evident, especially compared to his predecessors, and i think that comes from his status as a princeling. he is the son of a very prominent communist party member who served in the government, you know, was banished at one time and then came back. so i think there's that natural authority that his predecessors, his immediate predecessors did not have. and i think that makes him a
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little bit more relaxed when it comes to dealing with his peers and counterparts. and also, he has seen the benefits of having great charisma, i think he is aopportunity fra opportuni astute at learning from foreign leaders and how the more engaging ones can occupy a better place on the global stage. >> liz, what does all this mean for the united states? >> i think the united states faces a real challenge with xi jinping, particularly now as we have stepped back. but i think there's some untapped opportunities as well. if jamaicchina wants to be a le it needs to step up to the plate and be involved in foreign agreements, like myanmar, right in his backyard. and we don't yet see china yet playing that kind of role. so xi is taking advantage of the fact that we stepped back to
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rhetorically insert china into an international position. >> but that's a western conception off what it means to be a global leader, we in china believe in letting states do what they want. isn't it that he's rejecting the -- >> he has not said that china will not lead in terms of global challenges. he said he does want challenge to play an important role in addressing these challenges. what he does say, though, and you're right there, he doesn't believe that other countries should interfere in the domestic politics of other countries. that ee's part of sovereignty. the u.s.-led alliance system is something that has not proved particularly helpful to the international system and instead you should have this new community of common destiny or shared futures, which is really not much more than calling for
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the dismantlement of the u.s.-led global order. >> so shhe is calling for that? >> he is calling for that but he has not said that china will lead in global issues. up next, people often joke about how boring canada is and how dull the relations between the united states and it's neighbor to the north are. well, this week in washington, the two sides engaged in a war of words. what is going on? when we come back, canada's foreign minister will explain. is helping the new new york rise higher than ever. as the world leader in unmanned aerial systems, we're attracting the world's best talent to central new york. and turning the airport into a first-class transportation hub. all while growing urban areas into vibrant places to live and work. across new york state, we're building the new new york. to grow your business with us in new york state, visit
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a trump administration will renegotiate nafta, and if we don't get the deal we want, we will terminate nafta and get a much better deal for our workers and our companies, 100%. >> that was donald trump, pumping up a crowd in grand
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rapids, michigan, in the waning hours of the 2016 campaign. he's dropped some of these threats since moving to the oval office, but this one he's sticking to. trump repeated his threat a week and a half ago in the oval office, with the canadian prime minister justin trudeau right next to him. >> i think justin understands this, if we can't get a deal, we'll terminate the agreement and that will be fun. >> the prime minister says walking away from nafta could be the biggest mistake since richard nixon imposed wage and price controls. strong words. when it all came to a head in negotiations outside washington this week, turning into a war of war between the u.s., canada and mexico. trade representative robert lighthizer lashed out, saying
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frankly i -- for her part, canada's foreign minister called the u.s. positions troubling and unconventional. foreign minister freeland joins us now. always good to have you on. >> always good to be with you, fareed. >> do you think in your negotiations with the united states, that the trump administration is fundamentally trying to modernize nafta? or is it trying to undermine it and be able to declare this is not working, let's pull out? >> you know, i once, fareed, interviewed the ceo of pepsi, and she said to me that she believes in negotiations, you should always assume positive intent from your counter party. she says you don't always have positive intent, but you should assume it if you want to get a good result. so that is what i like to assume in negotiations. and certainly speaking for canada, we believe there is a
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fantastic opportunity before us now, to modernize nafta, to bring it into the 21st century, to cut red tape, make life easier for all of our businesses, and also actually to improve the situation for our workers. >> but you did say that you did not want to be negotiating with people who were trying to undermine nafta rather than modernize it? now i assume that the mexicans are not trying to undermine nafta, that could only mean by implication, you think your u.s. counterpart is trying to do that, correct? >> no. what i said exactly what i meant, which is i do think it's important that all parties bring to the table positive intent, as canada has. but what i also said is, in order to get there, we all have to be looking for, as vice president mike pence, said at the governor's meeting in rhode island at the beginning of the summer, we all have to have a
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mind set that says, lets get a win-win-win. a win for everybody. if one party has a winner take all atattitude, then it's not going to work. >> do you get the sense that the trump administration views this issue, sort of as inherent evidence that the deal is bad or which would, in a sense say free trade is bad. >> um, look, it is certainly the case that this u.s. administration has a strong view about trade deficits as a sign a trading relationship is fundamentally not working. canada doesn't necessarily take that view. we are a trading nation. we believe in free trade. having said that, when it comes to the canada/u.s. economic
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relationship, this is the point the prime minister made to the president, something we discussed and important to share with americans, when it comes to canada/u.s., it is the united states, which has a surplus with us. the u.s. has a surplus of $8 billion on goods and services trade with canada and $36 billion on manufactured goods alone. those are according to u.s. statistics. so, according to the u.s. point of view, i guess it should be canada that is complaining that, you know, it's unfair we have a deficit with you guys. we don't take that view. we think the trading relationship between canada and the united states is beneficial and balanced. we want to modernize it. >> you said before you say hello to americans, you say one other thing. what is it? >> i've become a boring thing for americans to talk about.
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the first thing i point out is canada is the largest market for the united states, larger than china, japan and the uk combined. that's a surprise for a lot of americans. canada is like the girl next door. it's easy to take us for granted, but we are the largest for the u.s. that's why the negotiations are important not just for canadians, but americans. >> great to have you on. >> great to talk to you. >> we'll be back with more gps in a moment. it's a match made in tech heaven. it's like verizon is the oil and google is the balsamic. no, actually they separate into a suspension. it's more like the google pixel 2 is the unlimited storage. and verizon is the best unlimited plan. what if it's like h2 and o? yeah. that's right. i had a feeling that would score with you guys. good meeting. (avo) when you really, really want the best get the pixel 2 for up to $300 off on google's exclusive wireless partner, verizon. ♪ hungry eyes
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♪ one look at you and i can't disguise ♪ ♪ i've got hungry eyes ♪ applebee's 2 for $20. now that's eatin' good in the neighborhood. >> tech: so you think this chip is nothing to worry about? applebee's 2 for $20. well at safelite, we know sooner or later every chip will crack. these friends were on a trip when their windshield got chipped. so they scheduled at they didn't have to change their plans or worry about a thing. i'll see you all in a little bit. and i fixed it right away with a strong repair they can trust. plus, with most insurance a safelite repair is no cost to you. >> customer: really?! >> tech: being there whenever you need us that's another safelite advantage. >> singers: safelite repair, safelite replace. our guests can earn a free night when they book at and stay with us just two times? fall time. badda book. badda boom. pumpkin spice cookie? i'm good. book now at
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americans often discuss how their system of government might
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be approved in moments of crisis or political stagnation. corruption and economic decline moved the conversation beyond institutional tweaks. it brings me to my question, in which countries are generals publishly discussing a government take over? indonesia, ghana or uganda. stay tuned and we'll tell you the right answer. this week's book of the week is by walter isaacson. i'm half way through, but enough to recommend fully. this is his most ambitious book. he uses the life of leonardo to speculate on the sources of genius. i found myself agreeing with his ideas, disagreeing with others, but always, you are informed, entertained, stimulated and satisfied. this has to be the most
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beautifully illustrated book. do not get the e-book. 90% of americans die from an opioid overdose a day, one every 15 minutes. since 1999, the number of deaths has quadrupled according to the cdc data. president trump will make what he's called a major announcement about the epidemic. there's a tune emerging that may help fight the battle. trump's attorney general, jeff sessions, isn't going to like this. i'm talking recreational marijuana. a study published in the american journal of public health found a correlation between the legalization in colorado and reversal of the upward trend in opioid overdose threats. take a look at the chart. the deaths decreased by 6.5% in that state in the two years following legalization. while that may not seem like a large number, it is
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significantly different. marijuana use is not without risks and scientists suggest the results are preliminary. as the new york times noted, this isn't the only study to find a potential link between marijuana use, medicinal or recreational and lower opioid rates. the drek to have of mt. sinai hospital told "gps" continuing the study and look for patterns makes sense. we have an epidemic and we have to think differently. the correct answer to the gps question is b, all the living predecessors, several attorneys general discussed the military's readiness to impose the solution to the crisis. as alex points out in the new yorker, 43% of brazilians
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supported a temporary military intervention. those who support the idea will do well to remember the military's last temporary intervention yielded two decades of rule from 1964 to 1985. thanks to all of you for being part of the program this year. see you next week. happening now in the news room -- >> i refuse to get diverted on the various comments that may be made at one time or another. >> mitch mcconnell on the civil war in the republican party and why trump's jabs aren't hurting. >> i think he's getting more done than he's giving everybody credit for. >> this, as the fight over what president trump said to a grieving widow continues today. >> stop tweeting and start leading. >> let's urge president trump to talk about the four soldiers. a little time on who they were, why they did what they did and all those like them. >> cnn news room starts right now.