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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  March 25, 2021 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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spac away well priced last night, of course spacs have had a big pull back as of late that's really the story, sarah we'll see what they end up buying in the weeks ahead. >> yeah, i guess some in while it's still hot, although more scrutiny for sure. reportly regulators are looking into spacs and the spac ipo. >> we're out of time we've taken five seconds back. my apologies over to you. >> i'm melissa lee this is "fast money. tonight on "fast" we are monitoring that big tech hearing on capitol hill. it's entering its 1000000th hour just kidding it's 5th hour. nike under pressure call frs a boycott growing in china and later nadine is gearing up to head to the pitcher's mound, why she thinks the travel related stock could be the ultimate reopening play.
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we start off with a roller coaster ride on wall street. the dow finishing with a 200 point game the nasdaq was down 1.5%, reversing the finish slightly higher all three finishing in the green. pretty remarkable turn arounds today. what do you make of the action >> first of all, you said put it in the ledger. you're not as nearly as woke as i am if you put it in the block chain, melissa, nobody would have to worry about it i know pk is nodding his head in agreement. that's number one. number two, the market looked extraordinarily vulnerable to me this morning given the comments tim made yesterday, the follow through on the down side it closed below 20 again i can't really pinpoint the reason for the reversal but it was extraordinary in my opinion given the backdrop of everything we've been talking about and oh, by the way, i think the comments about the fcc looking
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into spacs more closely, i thought that was going to mark >> what did you make of the whole thing? >> 15% fall in the vix from around 11:00 on, 2.5% rise in the smh just off the lows in the morning and go above a key level. you haven't seen this long of a run below the 50-day on semis really outside of the covid beatdown from back in 2019 so, important levels at least staved off for today i think a lot of this -- i don't think the story on equity -- the fundamental set up has changed that much at all in the last three weeks to a month i think a lot of this is quarter end, month end concerns. i think some of this has been reflex and self-fulfilling >> you're pointing out that volume is kind of anemic, nadine >> that's right. when you look at the volumes, they've been declining
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meanfully. even though to us investors volatility has seemed high, we felt more gain and pain this week volumes have actually declined not just week-over-week, month over mo, they're the lowest since december 2020. you can look back. i think i have a chart you can take a look at as an investor, what we're seeing here is that a lot of these moves don't have a lot of strength >> so, what do you think because we did see a lot of strength in for instance small caps which was up decisively today turning around the sagging sessions recently but the weakness seemed to be concerning even though we had that massive turn around in the nasdaq overall, we had amazon, facebook, microsoft, they all underperformed pretty dramatically the broader index >> yeah, they all lagged quite a bit. and when you look at what were the leaders, it was industrial, cyclicals, the dow -- the dow jones is something we kind of
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forget about those are the stocks that are powering this. i go back to the framework that i've been using for this market where the bullish case is that gdp is going to grow and it's going to grow faster than inflation and you don't have to worry about inflation. inflation is going to be faster than erodings growth and it's grog to erode earnings what we saw today, that's exactly where inflation expectations are priced and what we saw was good bond auctions. there was some demand there whereas last week it was terrible where i'm sitting you say okay, fine we've got bond buyers in here. i don't have to worry about rating spiking right now and then therefore let me look -- let me start buying the names that are going to be better when the economy takes off under the reopening. i think that's the dynamic we have but it still leaves out that big cap tech because i think you're still going to get some inflation, which is going to hurt anything that has a high
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p/e ratio. >> feels like we're in a box right now, guy we're in a box and that we are capped by wherever we think rates are going to be at this point. we are in a box because we are on hold. there's no real catalyst in terms of the cyclical trade at this point we're just sort of waiting >> yeah. and if i was, you know, in a decent mime, i could do that whole thing in a box -- >> you're doing it and you're in a box. you're in a four box which would make it even better. so, if you can try that at some point, that would be dramatic. >> you blew it you blew it, guy >> as it turns out -- no, nadine mentioned volatility you look at volatility and measure by the vix and couple closes below 20 now and it leads you to believe that the complacency of the markets there and there's the belief that all the things nadine talked about don't necessarily matter as there's this backstop. i'm surprised at how complacent
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the market seems to be in the camp that rates might have levelled off for a period of time. i think you're going to see 2% i don't think that's going to be particularly constructive for stock prices >> let's get to the chart master, the three charts that could tell us where to head from here carter, what are you looking at? >> sure. just await earnings. really it's all about the big movements in bonds, currencies and indices. so, let's look at a few charts i have three items we're going to discuss first we're going to look at yields then we're going to look at the dollar then we're going to look at the russell 2000 first chart. this is the yield chart, ten-year, over the last 6, 7, 8 months, basically from the may low. no judgments, annotations, but we all know it's an uptrend.
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second chart, it's a very precise uptrend. in fact it's a mathematically clear parallel channel and you can see almost time almost like a pinball machine we have got to the upper or lower band of the channel. we have reversed and moved back towards the middle or the other extreme. and so we keep hitting our head up against the upper band here, as you can see we got as high as 175 or thereabouts on the ten-year. here we're at 163. i think ultimately the sequence calls for lower, that we move back to the middle/lower of the channel. that's what's required to go higher but the sequence would call for that now, so lower yields on a short-term basis the second is of course the dollar and the first chart here is very clear. the dollar has broken above the down trend line in effect for the past year. now, where can it go really that's the issue. take a look at the second chart. we are up to a level of overhead
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supply, if you will, right we're starting to get into where there's congestion at the 94 plus minus level so, while i think we can inch higher, it's not the all clear that's coming consensus that the dollar is about to really get going in a big way to the upside so, a little bit up sideways if you will the issue of small cap the issue for the russell 2000 is the comparative chart it's the russell 2,000 versus the s&p. the spread had only been wider one other time going back to the beginning of the russell in 1978 and that happened to be in march of 2000, no analog with a dot com period you should get some mean reversion, and we've seen what's happened to small caps russell just dropped 11% and peaked the trough.
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this is russell itself over the past five years with it's 150-day moving average what we know is again, around the middle of last week, had never been higher above its moving average, 150, going back to inception 1978. so, i think the very important message here is that crowded, steep, overdone and that it's large cap, the better bet than small. >> carter, may i please ask for a bonus chart? and that would be just straight up s&p 500 >> well, so interestingly we know you've had a drawdown of 11% in the nasdaq. you've had about 11% in the russell. and ultimately the s&p is sort of playing the middle. it's this perpetual rotation machine that doesn't allow it to draw down that much. ultimately you do get mean reversion back to trend. i think the s&p will also come down to it's moving average as the nasdaq 100 and the nasdaq
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have already done. >> carter. great to see you thank you. very nice fireplace. by the way, in case you're just tuning in, in case you can't follow the charts, in case you have forgot whan carter said, which is entirely possible, we've come up with this graphic yields down, dollar sideways, small caps down. you put all these things together, these charts, you shake them up and what do you get in term of your interpretation of the market >> well, i think it's constructive i think it's a constructive backdrop if yields were to come down, i think that's one of the market has. sideways dollar, tim mentioned the dollar a bit of a wrecking ball i think that's a katy perry song or something when the dollar does rally, it serves as a wrecking ball. i think that's encouraging for the broader market if it goes sideways i think everything carter speaks to less the s&p trading down, going back to a mean reversion,
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is very constructive i am not in that camp, as i mentioned. i do think yields go higher. i also think the dollar is going to top out here. >> i feel like you're a katy perry fan, so i'll pose the same question to brian. >> it's funny. i've got katy perry playing in the other ear. it's amazing, uncanny how you're able to predict that, melissa. but nonetheless, the dollar is a global wrecking ball the dollar is the new vix. the higher it goes, the worse it is for financial markets, okay that you need to be very concerned about that it does look like we have hit some overhead supply, so maybe it stalls for a bit. the one thing i would say is, you know, if you're trying to hedge your bets here, trying to figure out where to position your portfolio, i would skew much more toward the large cap cyclical and industrials and the reason why is even if the economy starts to taper off, you're going get an economic stimulus bill that will likely
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be for a stimulus and for green energy and those type of things. so, skew your portfolio that way, start selling off your tech and that'll kind of balance you out and potentially hedge you through this period. but the bottom line is i think the easy money's been made in this market. and it's a lot more difficult to kind of analyze what's going on now. >> by the way, apparently nobody on this panel is really a katy perry fan because it's miley cyrus. >> i knew it i was about to say it. >> we have breaking news steve has the detail melissa, yeah. just the last hour the federal reserve announcing it's going to continue those restrictions on bank payouts until june 30th they were set to expire march 31st, but they're going to continue them for another quarter for most banks the restrictions are going to lift after june 30th for banks that do well in the stress test.
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restrictions will remain for those banks that are -- that don't do well in the stress test until september 30th so, i think this news was expected, melissa, to happen sooner or later. it looks like it's just a little bit later, so the banks over the last two weeks have won one and lost one they lost one where the fed didn't get the exceptions to reserve requirements against reserves and treasuries. but they won this one in a fashion in a sense that over the course of the next quarter they'll be able to put those dividends and share buybacks back on. >> nadine, i'll go to you. the kre was up almost 3% today >> you know, and we look here at the banks, just harkening back to talking about rates and the dollar, i'm much more with what guy said, which is if you've got treasuries going up to 2%, our risk range is about from 155 to 175 for the 10-year.
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that's going to be very, very different for stocks, different for banks, which obviously would be bullish for them. so, we're long on banks. we're long on financials in that type of spirit >> yeah, tim, you're expecting this >> i think you had to be expecting it i think the backdrop for banks, so great the xlo has outperformed the s&p by 20% since november, banks excel out for about 44%. money center banks, we know the pressure's off the banks right now. that's good news for investors the balance sheets are as bad as they've ever been. if the yield curve is where we think it is going to stay, banks are still cheap. >> favorite bank, guy? >> black stone and we've talked about it for a while. i think this environment sets up for them and you know, i actually did know it was miley cyrus. i also love hannah montana, and i think they should both tour with eminem, slim shady and marshall mathers
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that would be five people i would go to see. >> do you know who these five people are anyway -- >> i just named them all of course i do >> he just exhausted his pop culture knowledge right there. >> exactly done still ahead. nike getting tripped up. the developing story out of china that sent shares low big tech grilled the ceo's of facebook, alphabet and uritter entering their fifth ho of testimony. we'll break it down when fast money returns. ng customer and i'd like your best new smartphone deal. oh do ya? actually it's for both new and existing customers. i feel silly. but i do want the fastest 5g network. oh i want the fastest 5g network. are we actually doing this again? it's not complicated. only at&t gives everyone the same great deal. like the samsung galaxy s21 5g for free when you trade in.
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...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. welcome back the ceo's of facebook, alphabet and twitter still in a hearing with congress in its fifth hour. let's get to julia boersen for the latest julia. >> that's right. it's been a heating hearing and also a very long hearing in which lawmakers have expressed frustration that the companies have not adequately cracked down on misinformation and hate speech there was a bipartisan focus on the damaging impact of social media on children. a number of representatives say facebook and youtube in particular are addictive and
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responsible for depression and even suicide the three ceo's were accused of censorship of conservative voices, also acting more as publishers than platforms. jack dorsey says they enforce their policies about hate speech because that best serves their customers and their business >> some of you will say we're doing too much and removing free speech rights. some you have you will say we're not doing enough and end up causing more harm. both points of view are reasonable and worth exploring if we woke up tomorrow and decided to stop monitoring content, we would end up with a service very few people or advertisers would want to use. >> mark zuckerberg defending his company's efforts to crack down on hate speech and misinformation as well but he says he hopes lawmakers will reform the section o-230
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liability shield by holding big tech companies to a certain standard of the systems they need in place and the enforcement to remove illegal content. >> i don't think anyone wants a world where you can only say things where private companies judge to be true, where every post has to be fact checked before you hit send. but at the same time, we also don't want misinformation to spread that undermines confidence in vaccines, stops people from voting or causes other harms. >> many of the law makers we've heard from over the past five hours have threatened that regulation is coming, and they could be referring to not only reform of section 230 but also something to regulate these platforms' impact on children. melissa? >> julia, the bottom line is in order to make any changes to section 230 or do regulations, the democrats and republicans have to come together. is that very likely according to the industry watchers you talk to >> well, look, it would be a very complicated process to
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really implement meaningful reform what i do think is interesting is you have bipartisan support for reform but for different reasons. one congresswoman suggested creating a new organization so we might see a push for a new type of industry watchdog organization that could address these issues of hate speech, misinformation, impact on children, et cetera, similar to the way the s.e.c. oversees the financial industry >> okay. julia, thank you julia boorstin the fcc oversees the financial industry by enforcing actual laws creating a new organization to oversee content on social media platforms, i don't know what, tim. i don't know how it will impact these companies. it sounds kind of negative i don't know >> it sounds -- it sounds kind of like what china is doing right now, which isn't going so well, or at least what they're
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talking about doing. i think at least framing the issue, jack dorsey was i think very succinct, either too heavy of the hand or too light of the hand or most importantly what is the hand the advertisers are going to tolerate or get behind. and that's really all that matters. what we've seen so far is social media is the only game in town and therefore we haven't seen a hit on these guys. this conversation goes round in circles. exam and i think ultimately you look at the charts, what's going on for the companies right now has nothing to do with what's going on on capitol hill it's a function of valuations, where interest rates are, where liquidity trades are apple is close to a lengthy period below the 200 day or nearing it for the first time since, again, may of 2019. that's more what worries me. >> i was going to say people might be tempted to draw a straight line between the stock moves that we've seen today or over the past few weeks for that matter and what is going on in
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washington it sounds like it's much more of an issue of interest rates and where you think the markets are going in general as opposed to regulation >> yeah. yeah, i mean, listen, today was a superlong thread, as the kids say, rivalled only by the thread that you would have if you actually tried to have new regulations. so, i think the market has just completely ignored it or shrugged it off. the moves in these stocks have a lot more to do -- i agree with tim. they have a lot more to do with rates and what's going on with big tech and all of that in term of high p/e ratios compressing than they do these hearings. i think investors are just saying, listen, it's not going to happen no matter what they're never going to get a law passed so, we've got to take the companies as they are. as long as user growth keeps going or advertising continues to grow, then these stocks should be okay >> we have a chart here that shows the percent off the 52-week highs, nadine. facebook is only off 8% from the
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52-week high i'm wondering where you stand on some of these companies. >> sure. when it was down this morning, not just twitter but tech overall, we just covered some of the shorts it wasn't surprising to us that we saw a lot of the markets, including tech, come back into the green t. starting in the morning, you were looking 6 to 1 upside and minus 0.6% down side that's great asymmetry so, in my mind obviously fundamentals have been good. they could improve during the year, as companies continue to spend and continue to grow but in the meantime you have to trade. it's been really volatile. tomorrow could be different. it has nothing to do with what happened in congress today >> guy, you have a smirk on your face like the cheshire cat i go to you for comment. >> i love they d drop in asymmetry and trade the chop that's old school. i understand what she's saying i say this about facebook and
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i've said this a long time i'm not shy about it i hate everything about facebook except the stock today i kept thinking about trading in the 290s -- your poind about the recent all time high they report in april, and everything that julia said is true and there's nothing really redeemable about it in my opinion. is it addictive? yes, it's designed to be all those things are true, yet people are not leaving the platform, number one, and nor are advertisers. the existential risk is if it falls under the auspices of investing. katie bar the door -- i don't know who she is -- but you bar watch it >> every business in the world wants a product that is addictive. coming up, big news for the cannabis industry as new york reaches a deal to legalize marijuana. nike shares falling flat as the athletic faces backlash.
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fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more. welcome back we are following a developing story out of china check out shares of nike falling more than 3% today on growing calls from china to boycott the company. on the ground in beijing with the latest >> videos of chinese burning nike shoes circulated online today amid calls to boycott the sportswear giant's clothing. nike is in the cross hairs after what appeared to nike's past statement expressing concern about reports of forced labor and saying it doesn't use cotton from there
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nike is just one of several brands which have drawn chinese criticism after countries in the west sanctioned beijing. china accounts for 23% of nike brand sells. today chinese celebrities cut ties with nike and people online are calling for the national sports teams to drop nike sponsorships so far product stores are open and products are available on websites international brands should lobby their own governments to stay in the chinese market, they say. >> all right our thanks to eunice uniin beijing. similar, you are a shareholder or nike. what do you think of this? >> i think adidas was down 6% today. i think bush ri was down 5.5%. nike has not been afraid to wade into social issues in any country and nike's innovation around the world continues to
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make them a leader i'm most worried about nike's valuation which is 60 times trailing mike's numbers were up 50% in china. that's the number that people want to focus on, but was that the reason is shares outperformed i think the bigger part of the story is north america, innovation and i've not run too far away from this one. i'm not doing anything with my position >> tim mentioned valuation, guy. could this be the reason to take profits? >> it makes sense. when -- valuation doesn't matter until it does. that's what happens. when you have a back story, first thing people look at is valuation. it's too expensive, they sell it now you have to figure out where to get it if you haven't been long or where to get back into it if you have sold out. i think 122 for a lot of reasons makes sense. that was the low around halloween. we're not that far away. nike is never scared to take these matters head on.
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i'll say one thing though. some of the rhetoric between the united states and the chinese has gotten pretty interesting. i think today president biden said president xi doesn't have a democratic bone in his body and he made some comparisons to vladimir putin, which might not be a big deal. but you have to wonder again, is this another reescalation of something we've seen over the last four years. definitely is worth watching >> china tensions don't seem to be going away under this administration no word yet either on whether or not the terrorists will remain in place nadine, every single time we've heard about potential boycotts or boycotts actually happening against western brands, it doesn't really materialize we haven't seen it yet >> you're right. my only concern -- and i agree with both guy and tim -- is just that this could linger for a while and there could be other elements of administrations are going to have a lot of difficulty in term of their discussions and negotiations, will this continue in the headlines. even if it is a certain
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percentage of revenues, it's -- we've estimated a larger percentage of their profits. so, i'm a little bit more worried from a profit standpoint what some type of slow down would do in china. it's about expectations. people invest with certain expectations and if those slow down, i might look elsewhere for value. >> it's all about north america. north america still has stimulus going. china has seen the stimulus high wear off we've seen it in the share price of the indices over there. maybe this is not as big a deal even if it is a hit. >> yeah, i think it's a sentiment hit here i agree china reopened before anybody else did so, we've already seen the reopening trade there. and, you know, i think -- listen, maybe put a tinfoil hat on me, but i just find it very curious that we've had
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u.s.-china relations go even more contentious over the last couple of days and then all of a sudden these so-called grass roots protests pop up. i don't buy it but, you know, so what does that mean for nike? i think you're all right on the way that it reversed today, and i think you can use today's low as the bar >> a big analyst upgrade on one semiconductor name could have you charging in. the traders are plugging in a bit. but first nadine is pitching her next best idea, why she thinks this travel-related stock could be a tax free home run [music: “you're the best” by joe esposito] [music: “you're the best” by joe esposito] [triumphantly yells] [ding] don't get mad.
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welcome back to "fast money. booze, chocolate and perfume need i say more? our nadine says there's opportunity in one travel related name nadine is ready to give us a fast pitch go ahead >> three things. this company has a long runway to expand their share, 11% of duty-free stores around the world. you've got small operators who are undercapitalized willing to sell because their business is hurt then you have municipalities who are looking to privatize their airport operations that's number one. two, what we see is the key
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reopening play, just like you said, it is luxury it is travel so, you have airport operators privatizing and then upscaling the travel experience. so, think of rh. they just had a massive quarter. but here they have no online competitor in the store and you're locked in there for an hour so, that's a great type of monopolistic type of business. and three, an attractive business we're looking at ebitda multiples if you take out operating leases less than four times with them. and they've done a great job of cost cutting, .04 was frank's out. most of that was labor and free options in china, free options on having those types of cost cutting stay with debt reduction. love that type of business maybe you can full up the 5-year chart. this kind of tells the story what happened in covid and what
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you can expect coming out. i leave it to you, mel i'm a big buyer. we own this in our positions, our portfolios, and duty free. it's a win >> all right b.k., you got a question for nadine >> yeah, i've got kind of a two-part question because i'm concerned about one part of it but the other part would mitigate it. number one, whenever i go international travel i get myself a toeb he roan and i don't pay any duty and it tastes delicious. but it concerns me because i think international travel is going to come back last. however, that would be mitigated by the fact -- i'm curious -- i've never seen a competitor to duty free. is there one out there is this a monopoly business? >> one of the beautiful things here is that lvmh does play in this space what i said is 90% of the airport operations, the duty free are owned by small players that are really hurting. what we love about it, the other
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free option if you want to call it, is this would be a great takeout candidate. for now i would play it for alibaba backing them, advent backing them, upscaling airport operations and consolidating the industry >> fun fact. >> hopefully get a takeout >> fun fact by the way brian kelly did bring us one time from a trip three giant toblerone's. we had to by hand break them apart. >> that's because i care >> guy, what do you say? >> can you read my smart board for me, please, melissa, lee is that in your line of sight? >> it says love the european kit kats >> i'm with nadine on this one i will say one thing if you're someone who shops at the duty free like you're at the
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short hills mall on the weekend, you're doing it wrong. that being said, i think she's on to something here the reopening trade makes a lot of sense >> brian kelly >> you know, i was told to use a dark color ink, and all i had was a sharpie, so i'm going with buy on this and going with buy for all the other ones too i do like the idea this could be taken out, upscaled and might be getting the bargain out to what it was before. so, i'm a buyer. >> tim, what do you say? >> i don't like the fact that b.k. only once brought us something back but that's another story i'm a beer that's a plane i love the story i love the margins and i love the free cash flow generation. relative to the history, i think the shop is very cheap >> b.k. brought back a pinata one time from a mexican bitcoin conference or something. are you buying nadine's pitch? vote in our twitter poll we'll bring you the results at
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the end of the show. up next, budding news out of the pot industry as legalization continues to grow, can investors expect to see more genre ahead our cannabis king. we'll break it down next
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welcome back to "fast money. blazing news out of new york state today. state lawmakers finalizing a deal to legalize recreational marijuana for adults 21 and older. despite what should be good news for the cannabis industry, many were flaming out today down so, what gives >> so many puns, mel, so little time i think if you look at the new york news, it was, as expected, long delayed, expected in some cases priced in. the detail around legislation we have so far is it right be more restrictive for the existing legacy players green thumb, kres coe. there's 10 vertical licenses in new york and there's some issues with how well the legacy players are going to sit in the new legislation.
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more importantly for cannabis it's been a rocket of a year i think while the fundamentals have gotten better, the bar got very, very high for a handful, especially of the biggest most popular and more importantly most profitable companies in the space. so, again, safe act in new york to basically come to fruition or at least the beginning of this legislation on federal or possibly the second largest market in the world. very good news, good earnings but a lot priced in. this may sound like a homer here, but this is weakness to buy. there's nothing here that we didn't expect and the fundamentals are probably very, very strong. i just think there's a little bit of a news fact going on here >> yeah. nadine >> right, there's a chart, hopefully you can pull it up and it shows the russell versus the mtf. they look pretty similar we were talking earlier about
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the russell having pressure, 10%, 11% until this morning and you get a pop up part of it is obviously new york part of it is comments that congress and the white house had this week talking about is something going to happen, is nothing going to happen at the federal level. you see this and there's a correlation here as the russell was pressured you're seeing cannabis pressured with another broad brush like this this is an opportunity so, you look at these things and say loans got better here we go >> why one wall street firm is saying a strategic faux pas. n r don't forget to vote iou twitter poll are you digging in let us know. lds you back don't settle for silver #1 for diabetic dry skin* #1 for psoriasis symptom relief* and #1 for eczema symptom relief* gold bond champion your skin
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allow amd to continue to increase its market share momentum despite the upgrade and the close lower on the day remember the price action. it wasn't very impressive. we saw a spike big time of the n news the next day it fell flat. >> that $68 we talked about on the show was sort of the same high the previous all-time high remained this january i think. we talked about needing to close above it it didn't do it. i do think amd is a winner here. we talked about that for a while. amd does have a 5-year head start on the third generation chips. the stocks should be higher. i'm surprised, very surprised actually that on the back of this call and the back of the reversal and tech that amd didn't trade better. 74 on the down side is a line in the sand that was the november 2nd low i
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believe. >> forced to choose b.k. intel or amd i was going to throw out nvidia. give me one or the other i'll go amd. >> really it's none of the above. >> right none of the above. i wasn't given that choice either i wanted to say nvidia >> well, talk about nvidia >> well, bye, how about that buy. >> wow, everything is going to be a buy from now on, b.k. i'll go to you on this one it's a one way truth, just buy >> i can play the would you rather or none of the above and i would rather intel i think you've got a case where we know they've lost massive market share to amd. we know they've got a couple of years of massive investment. that's the point we were excited to hear about the investment is and the
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exitment to innovation by the guy we believe in and helping to make intel what it was and will again. i like the valuation i like it on a discount. i like the commitment to 5 and 7 nanometer and what they're going to be doing in arizona and other parts. so, i think it's a buy >> yeah, it's clear there is a vision for intel but it's a matter of execution at this point. and are you willing to take the gamble that the execution will actually follow? >> well, you're right. it's really about duration do i want to wait that long? so, here i would do amd just because you're looking at taiwan semi who are they going to treat better they're going to obviously treat amd better i would go with that horse between the two. i have to agree with tim that long term they're doing the right thing. fundamentally i would support the business but in terms of owning the stock i would wait a minute. >> often traders are betting there's still upside for intel bonn win joins us to break it
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down >> hey in term of intel given what we've seen recently. taking a look at the options, calls on pace puts about 2-1 and drilling looking at volatility options are implying a 9% move in either direction between now and april 30th that's in line with what we've seen recently from earnings the last four quarters keeping in mind we have seen quite a bit of volatility in the stock at that time the tape that jumped off the take to me, about 10,000 of the april 30th 66 were bought for $1.04. so, you're selling the call against that, putting the break even about 108% of current spot. that looks a bit rich, but keep in mind earnings are on the 23rd or 24th. what it is is a crafty way to get long, unlimited cap after
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earnings while still paying only about a dollar to get into that trade. it was a very innovative trade to get long intel earnings >> what do you think of intel at this point >> obviously i think it's under quite a bit of pressure and i can understand why the faux pas so to speak is causing the shares to be under a bit of pressure if i was playing it, i would do it it's a million dollar bet. it's a dollar. capping your risk and getting exposure to what is likely to be an catalyst of this trade. >> for more action, tune in tomorrow for the full show, "options action. time is running out and it's a real nail biter. go vought in our twitter poll. we'll get you the results and final trades after this quick break.
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all right. let's get a check on bitcoin, b.k.
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bitcoin was down today was wondering what you made of the action we also got news fidelity was going to file for bitcoin etf. there's the chart, down 6.4 kt approximate. >> yeah, i think the failing is very big obviously they're very big players in the space and if they think they have confidence they're going to get an etf through, that's pretty good news for bitcoin. what's happened in the very short term, we have an option expiration coming tomorrow and it's one of the biggest option expirations we've had in the history of bitcoin so you're starting to see a lot of this volatility going around that tomorrow after the expiration, if we start to see bitcoin move higher, we know there was just positioning around that. and it looked even today, we saw it broaden out a bit at the bottom here. bitcoin started the rally. and so i think -- it looks like after this option expiration we could be bottoming and maybe turning to higher here >> the options expiration is the biggest because of the number of contracts involved
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>> the notional amount, the number of contracts and notional amount >> we'll watch it for sure it is time to find out if viewers at home for buying nadine's fast pitch. yes, yes, yes, america is going tax-free style and buying up nadine's pick on dupree. congratulations to nadine. let's go around the horn tim see mother >> congrats, nadine. back to nike i think they gave a very conservative guide for a few i like this weakness to buy. i think the china news overrated. >> nadine. >> i'm still going for bp. there's going to be more inflation. you've got a ship stuck in the suez canal i like all of that in a discounted european name, british petroleum. >> interesting i say you buy the green stemmy
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give me the stemmy sflr looks interesting here. >> we would be playing time of your life if we're not afraid of lawsuits imagine playing. >> thank goodness if lawsuits trump that consolation brands stz >> thank . my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money," welcome to cramerica, i'm here to make you money. call me, or tweet me remember the five stages that i talked about when things were beginning to get back. every time the market roll

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