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tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  November 3, 2020 3:00pm-5:00pm EST

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the nasdaq capacity really basically the same a lot of the cyclicals doing very well, kelly, today, and financials. >> yes, that's kinds of the odd bed fellows that we have look at tesla and neo, which are rallying hard. goldman sachs is the best name in the dow right now that's the brew we leave you with on election eve sfa we will soon see what the story is, thanks. thank you very much, and welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen here with wilfred frost. it is election day in america. and rally day on wall street stocks are headed higher for a second straight session with the dow up 2% as we head into the time hour of trade let's look at what's driving the action right now first and foremost, it's the election we are just a few short hours away from the first round of poll closures including georgia,
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north carolina, and ohio whether we will get a clear result tonight remains to be seen the ten-year note level higher than since early june. banks among the best performing stocks in the dow and the s&p. oil prices are gaining ground but the energy sector is the only in the red. overall a broad based strong day on wall street. >> following gains yesterday as well let's get straight to the big stories we are watching. mike santoli is here watching the market rally. >> and ylan moi is following the all important balance of power in the senate for us mike santoli, welcome. >> good two-day run in the markets. it is inhabiting the ground we were in the last half of last week and gone right to the middle 3,400 is the middle of the long three-month range. if you think about it it has taken two days to lift the
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indexes back onto a balanced footing. we were pretty oversold last week challenged and tested the september lows bounced off of that today. make sure folks are not leaning too much in one direction as opposed to urgent buying in one election outcome or anything else here is the call weighted s&p 500 versus the s&p 500 itself. this is when mega caps were dominating the ultimate peak of the margaret, september 2nd. you see a jagged attempt at higher lows, higher highs. we will see if we can break out of it. it seems to be geared towards things that signal a better economy. the ten-year levels. we are almost at this level from june 8th when it was over .9%. is it strictly an economic call,
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stimulus, about market makers not being able to take the other side a lot of those narratives out there. unclear if we have got an escape velocity fortressry yields everything is grinding in the direction of handicapping a better economic environment, whether that's true or not or election dependent or not. >> the election has been a short-term factor. the other is rising cases and the reminder of what it can lead to, economic lockdowns in europe and the market seemingly slug both of those factors off. is that because hopes for a stimulus are slightly up again >> the stimulus hovers out there on the horizon interestingly you are seeing the pure shutdown stocks underperform, zoom and those name it seems like the margaret is not concerned about a long lasting lockdown one thing is in the u.s. probably not going to be a wholesale lockdown we have seen it works and that
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you can bring cases down over time if you take these measures. i think the argument is perhaps the market is attempting to look through it although, you know, there have been haid head fakes before in this direction i would point to early june as one of those where we had the very same dynamics and then the summer surge happened and it unwound. >> mike, thank you we will see you in just a few moments let's bring in phil camp rely from jp morgan for more on today's market moves what's driving the optimism that's boosting groups like industrials to the top and testry yields to five-month highs? >> sara, good to be with you guys again one of the things that really focusing on are the signal that's coming from financial conditions what are financial conditions? financial conditions are things like corporate credit spreads, interest rates, also volatility, sara i think what the mark has been saying, this week especially, yesterday's rally and today, is that if you can remove this
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giant uncertainty that the world has been waiting for since fwhoef 3rd, that introduces another tail wind to financial conditions i think ten-year treasury rates -- michael mentioned this. ten-year treasury rates are basically at the highest level that we have seen post the march period and that's telling us that there is no boogie man in the bond market there is no real sinister message come from fixed income and moreover, it's one where we see this continued expansion happening along with eventual fiscal policy that keeps rates up at these levels so we are very pleased to see ten-year treasury rates close to 90 basis points right now. that is additive the our view. >> what level of rates, phil, starts to hurt certain sectors because of their valuations? and are you worried about that occurring? >> yeah, wilfred, that's a great question you know, the last cycle we had to answer this as well because every time rates from buttoning up against 3% which
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locks like another universe from here we were getting that question wilfred, it's all about the speed that rates move higher that's what's really disconcerting. if we see what we have seen over the past couple of weeks which is really a grind higher in rates that's a good signal there is no one single rate that the economy can't withstand. a lot of people are talking about 1% at the top of the range. i am not sure if i would necessarily agree with that. we would be concerned if rates unhinged on the back end and caused a tightening of financial conditions quickly something like the taper tantrum. that's not your base case in this economy post election. >> what's your favorite sector right now, phil, given the uncertainties out there, also some of the optimism out there as you suggest that we are seeing from the kple and from the credit market? >> yeah. that's a gu question first of all, on picked income credit is important. that's a big part of the view
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here you need less to go right for credit to work n. a muddle through environment or in a strong growth environment credit goes well. specific to equity sara if we are right about this global recovery story that really takes hold in 2021, the growth versus value outperformance that has considered in a historical way this year drive by a lot of those mega cap tech stocks we would expect that to close somewhat in 2021 you know, those value stocks that have not kept up with the big tech names, maybe you could see a closing of that. that's the way we are positioned we are a little bit more balanced on the growth value position if we are right about the story for each trickle higher and we really do get escape velocity over the next segment we would except overgrowth. we are not jumping into that trade just yet but we would expect that. >> phil, thank you for joining us. >> okay. the presidential race is taking up a lot of the oxygen
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today but the battle for congress could have big implications for your money also ylan moi has the latest on what to look out for on that. >> democrats are betting they can regape the majority by running to the middle. in competitive senate races across the country they are challenging republicans with moderate candidates who have already come out against ideas like medicare for all and expanding the supreme court. kansas is one example. the democrat on that ticket used to be a republican she switched parties in 2018 while serving in the state legislature because she said that mrlly the party was not going where we are compass resides. she is slipping against congressman marshal for that seat but the race is tighter than expected. meanwhile in colorado hickenlooper is widely expected to beat corey gardner. hickenlooper is against the green new deal and critics say
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he has flip-flopped on fracking. you have to pay attention not just to which party wins the elections but who the candidates are because even if there is a blue wave democrats could end up with a relatively centrist caucus. >> ylan, how detailed has the polling been when it comes to how people plan to vote lower down the ticket. even if you do get trump disillusions republicans what is the expectation they might split their ticket and still vote republican in the senate >> the polling has been strong in some of the senate races because they are competitive we have done our own polling with change research or this as well and shown a similar tine mick that is the bet some of the candidates are making. there are, theically in the suburbs, particularly among woman some voters who have been turned off by president trump's tone, his style, sub of the substance of his policies and are looking for an alternative
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that is giving some democrats who are running below joe biden on the ticket a boost as well n. some cases some of these democratic candidates are even running ahead of joe biden in the polls. >> ylan moi thanks so much for that all crucial factors to be watching out for tonight for your money and the markets the markets by the way at the moment slipping a fraction, down to only 500 points higher on the dow, having been up 688. still ahead much more on the market rally as we await election results plus an etf on pace for its best day since march. we will ask an analyst which fund should be on your radar you are watching "closing bell" on cnbc.
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welcome back health care moving higher today with anthem and mckesson among the biggest winners. the group slightly
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underperforming the broader market since president trump was elected in 2016. up 25% compared to the s&p 500 rallying 58% for more on how this election could impact health care stocks, jared holtz. first broad question, if it's possible to simplify it this much, which president -- which candidate as president will be better for health care as a whole? >> good afternoon, thanks a lot for having me. we have done a lot of thinking about this i actually think that a biden presidency would be better for health care than trump becaused on, you know, some of the work we've done, what we believe to be his core underlying policies, and given the fact that the aca in our mind is the biggest risk, biggest impediment facing health care and the supreme court which is going the hear this case against next week that seems to be the biggest risk than anything biden has planned for
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it at this point. >> the aca being rolled back i think is what you mean what are the chances of a biden presidentsy immediately expanding health care coverage >> it seems that's priority number one everything he said about the health care industry and his plans for evolving the landscape over the next few years has been pinpointed on expanding medicare, medicaid coverage to, you know, many more patients who are still without insurance now. i think if we take that and view that as being factual, to me that's very significant for health care. i think health care as a sector performs fairly well under a biden administration the only negative this we really heard -- i am not sure you can call it that -- is this idea of a public option potentially taking business away from the publicly traded managed care companies over time. still given where we are with covid-19 and all the challenges that that's presented it diplomat seem like that's a near
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term head wind for the industry. >> last time around, jared, whenever hillary clinton spoke the drug companies would fall because of threats there to crackdown on rising prices we have seen president trump trying to tackle the issue, too, through executive orders th i am not sure anything came of it. is that issue no longer a threat for this industry in is it on the back burner because we need these companies so badly in the fight against covid? >> it is a great question. i think the drug pricing as sort of a backdrop or as topic -- we are going to have to content with from here until the end of time i don't think that this drug pricing story or narrative goes away that being said, yes, to your point we have already gotten such a significant amount of pressure by the trump administration and the executive orders would be one example of dramatic pricing pressure evolving in health care, especially when it comes to pharmaceuticals and biotech companies -- i would doubt that a biden administration has
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anything up their sleeve that's all that much worse. certainly i think the noise factor around health care under a biden administration will be less significant i don't think tweets will sort of rule the day as it has, you know, with health care, over the past few years. >> what about pricing around specifically vaccines and treatment options from covid is that going to be taken over by the federal government? therefore are these companies going to be pressured even though they are coming out with these game changing innovations? >> the government has already back stopped most of these companies. the amount of money they invested behind multiple pramts has been very significant. you have seen billions of dollars that have been put into these companies as far as ever inning, research and development, procure men or vaccines that are not even approved i think there has been a significant relationship between the government and these companies that's been forged over the past few months which
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is fairly significant. and it my wind up taking pressure, you know, off of the companies in the pharmaceutical industry going forward to the extent that these vaccines work and they winds up being effective at treating the population so i think there is probably a link between the government and these companies that did not exist prepandemic, which might actually be helpful. >> jared, if there is some election-related weakness in your sector over the next couple of days what are your kind of top picks regardless of election outcome? >> for sure, i am trying to stay with what i believe are solid good growth companies over the near to medium term that have -- you know, that demonstrate that type of profile. you know i would stick with some of the med device names, some of the diagnostic names i would use some of the weak innocence pharma to go after a pfizer or a merck on any significant weakness i think abbott labs as far as a
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company in diagnostics, garden health and catalan, which you mentioned earlier, all of those have the profile investors are going to look for if indeed there is weakness to be had here. >> jerr holtz thank you for joining us. we have got more than 500, a 42-point rally right now for the dow. don't miss cnbc's election coverage tonight 7:00 p.m. eastern and continuing all night long we have 40 minutes to go here before the closing bell. consumer, financials and consumer discretionary the cop three performing sectors after the break, joe biden headed into election day with a sizable lead in the polls. but the betting markets are showing a much tighter race. we are going look at what the big money is being spent on in
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that market, what those wagers tell us, and how traders are using the data next. later, former defense secretary leon panetta here to aneak down what the election mes for foreign policy and much more. s&p up 1.7%.
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the expertise that helps keep hospitals clean, is helping keep businesses clean too. look for the ecolab science certified seal. under 40 minutes of left dow is up 540 points the final nbc youth news "wall street journal" poll showing a 10% lead among voters for joe biden. but the betting markets are
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showing a closer race. leslie picker has more the polls are giving president trump about a 10% chance of re-election. the political betting market known as predict it has his odds upwards of 40% although it is declining today. we asked predict it's ceo why there is such a big gap. >> we are not asking people what do you want to have happen we don't care about that had we care about is what do you think is going to happen what do you think is going to happen sufficiently that you are willing to put a little bit of money on the line to back up that conviction. >> predict it says their markets are accurate about 80% of the time a notable miss was the 2016 election which gave trump a 20 to 35% chance of wing. of course most polls also indicated hillary clinton the clear winner in 2016
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still much of wall street is turning to the political stock market predict it to help inform the strads they make on other financial markets. guys. >> leslie, we talked a little bit about this in brexit, i remember, not just the 2016 election the growing gap between the polls and the betting odds why is it happening? who is generally right >> it is a good question what they would say it predicted is when people are putting their money on the line it speaks to a different type of psychology what he said in the sound byte we we just played, what you think will happen versus what you want to happen speaks to a different psychology in your answer they talk about the efficiency of the inputs and how up so much volume, so many trades, especially in a market like the 2020 election, where there is just a tremendous amount of attention and people really wanting to take certain bets on this one that you get so much more -- you know, you get more
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inputs than you would in certain polls that you would have. and polls require a certain amount of kind of scientific diligence in order the conduct those. the betting market is a free market you have a buy father outcome, a group of people looking to make trades that's why you see different results especially as it pertains to the 2020 election. >> of course you can't directly extrapolate probabilities of outcomes just from polls, but, clearly, they are linked to the odds the interesting thing, leslie, compared to 2016 on this and while everyone is trying to work out if the polls were wrong again, is that the sort of clinton size of lead is being discounted in the polls if you look at individual states like for example, florida where biden does have a lead in the polls. trump is still ds odds on favorite in the betting market so there is actually a level of discount of what happened in 2016 into the 2020 numbers it's just this time around, biden's lead on a national level for example, is more like double
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digit points on the polls. and therefore, yes, he's got a lead in the betting markets. but it is relative will he small compared to what you might expect for a ten-point lead. but as you say, the important thing today is that donald trump's odds lengthened a little bit today and now he is back out to a 2 to 1 chance in the european betting markets for example, into i think that's right. you also look at the various markets and how people are placing bets it is also subject to the fact that each person who place as bet on the predict it market can do a maximum of 850. $850 is what they can bet there. you attract maybe a different type of person who has been betting on these markets than, say, someone who would be responding to a poll that said you also have predict it cited so much more frequently in wall street reports this is something a lot of hedge funds are reading, investors are reading as they try to make sense of how they want to place
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their trades and place their bets going into this election. i think it speaks a little bit about what you mentioned before, with the margin of error, with 2016, people aren't sure if the issues from the '16 election have been rectified at this point, whether they should trust the polls in making their bets on wall street so they are turning to alternative methods and all termtive data sets such as predict it in order to signed of suss out what's going to happen they are kind of pointing directally to the same thing but obviously a huge gap in terms of probabilities. >> leslie, great stuff thank. still to come we will speak with your asia group's cleat will ems here's a check on bonds. yields moving notely higher today, .877% on the ten-year part of the reason why the banks are doing so fell.
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30 minutes left in today's session. the dow heat map with a rally of more than 560 points here at this point most dow stocks are higher the win e goldman sachs on the day, up 2.4% walgreens, boeing, walt disney are all higher as well a pocket of red there at the end of the table chevron, j&j, amgen and verizon. energy stocks struggling despite the rally. united health care adding 65 points to the day's rally. goldman sachs right behind it with 52. >> two good days we will discuss the banks later so i shouldn't dive into it in too much death i am being reminded we are doing it in the "market zone." time now for a cnbc news update with sue herera. >> here's what's happening at this hour.
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no major problems in today's voting although the fbi and the new york state attorney general are looking into robocalls and several carolina polling sites opened light telling a group of voters philly is the key joe biden is in pennsylvania this afternoon making several stops including an interview with wcau he says he doesn't expect there will be violence in response to election results. >> i believe the american people are showing up in droves they are ready for change. they want to make their voices heard. they are showing up in the middle of a pandemic, high unemployment, and they are determined to have their voices heard. i don't think we are going to have any problem. >> after visiting with campaign workers earlier today president trump will watch returns tonight with his family and senior aides at the white house the campaign says a war room has been set up in a government building next door at its own
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expense. fans are gathering outside a hospital in argentina where 60-year-old soccer ledgend diego maradona is undergoing emergency surgery for suspected bleeding in his brain >> wish him well. >> he was a legend. >> absolutely. beat england a number of times nonetheless, everyone respects one of the all-time greats we wish him well. >> uh-huh. we do. okay up next. we will look at how america's relationship with china could change based on the outcome of today's election as we head to break, a live shot of long voting lines in cleveland, ohio. we will leave you with those as we head out to break seeing this all over the cotr but there is a shot of a nice fall day there in cleveland. we'll be right back.
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3 minutes at wow, that is easy. so, need another reminder? no, no no, i'm good. uh, yes please. oh. ho ho ho, yeah! need worker's comp insurance? get a quote in 3 minutes at the u.s. stock market crushing global markets since president trump was elected back in 2016. s&p rallying by nearly 58% compare that to the shanghai
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composite only higher by about 4% and the ftse in the uk, which has fallen despite america's move higher america's relationship with a number of countries has hit lows over these last four years let's bring in ian bremmer and concrete will 'ems welcome to both of you clete since you were a former trade adviser under president trump, i wanted to start there he ran in 2016 on trade. especially taking on china we did get a lot of drama during his administration, the tariffs, the trade fights, the war of words. clete what does he have to show for it >> i think the phase one deal is a major accomplishment if you look at the deal -- i don't focus as much on the purchasing side.
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i know that gets a lot of the media attention. but in that deal there are a lot of structural changes that china made into its intellectual property laws. there are a lot of changes that he made to agriculture to the underlying laws that' lou for market access for the united states i think you are going to see an uptick there in sales. i also think across a whole other range of issues, the export controls on huawei, whether it is cracking down on investments you do see a lot of chinese companies that are in pain right now that are going to have to deal with this new environment. and i think if you talked to analysts on huawei they are in a bit of a survival mode that's what the u.s. intended to do because it sees them both as a national security and economic threat i think a lot has changed. more than the specific actions i would say what the president has done is changed the entire political dynamic on china we live in a nation that's very polarized. our parties are very polarized
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but the one area whereeveryone is marching in lock step is on the need to take on china's unfair trade practices i think that will be his biggest legacy and no matter what happens this this election the policy trajectory is going to be stay much the same. >> foreign policy experts tell us china has emerged stronger over the past few years despite the things you listed. china is the only major economy set to grow this year, which is the u.s. which is expected to shrink four to five percentage points in terms of gdp i am not sure he accomplished weakening it. >> you have to take into account what happened this year with the coronavirus. and there is no getting around the fact that china has been able to manage that i think better than most of the rest of the world. and we can debate why or why that may not be the case but thank that's more the issue than tez were's trade policies themselves like i said, i do think, if you
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look at what the president has done, he has changed china's behavior in some significant ways and you actually see the rest of the world rallying around and taking stronger action against china the example i love to give for people is sweden literally the least protectionist country in the world, some people might say and they are now saying we are going to ban huawei and zte from our networks and that really is u.s. leadership leading other countries to move in the same direction. >> ian, does the eu have the most to gain potentially if you look around the rest of the world from a change in president? >> first of all i want the agree broadly speak with clete, there is agreement between biden and trump in terms of whether foreign policy is going regarding china. the big competition being on climate. that is if biden came in i think there would be an effort for more multilateralism, not just in the pairs climate deal also
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work with the chinese, working with the japanese, and importantly working with the europeans. yes, i think it is very clear that europe is a big change for biden versus trump trump, of course his best relations with european leaders are people like not just boris johnson in the uk, also victor or ban in hungary. the euro 79 andics he was pro brexit and assertbly opposed to a strong eu biden's direction would be dramatically different also the fact that he is seen as more sociodemocratic in terms of the distribution of wealth,ing arelation on kompts. all of that is more aligned with the germans, with the french, and with brussels as a whole i think of course there is going to be a honey moon among the european governments if biden comes in because so many of their personal relationships with trump are so damaged i also think generally speaking that
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the transatlantic rip for stronger, less volatile and less open the question if biden were the president. >> do you think a biden presidency would get the u.s. back into the jcpoa. >> of course but that doesn't mean it would be easy to do. remember one of the first things that that happened when the deal was signed all the money, all the iranian assets seized by the iranian after the revolution in 1979, we enfroze them. that was part of the deal. they have that money now them coming back into the deal, it is not clear to me at all that they would say we are going to accept it the way it stands also you have iranian elections coming up next year. i don't think the supreme leader wants to necessarily give the moderates a win in a deal they saw after they enfroze that money hasn't led the iranian economy to be a paradise for corporations
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there are still big sanctions on them from the united states. that was true before trump pulled out i don't believe this would be a sea change in relations between the two countries. we have much more on this with leon panetta next hour. for now we have got to leave it there. ian and cleat thank you for joining us on this election day. the dow taking a leg higher here, up 656 points rallying into the close up next we are heading straight into the "market zone" to look at what sectors could win in a trump or biden administration. don't miss cnbc's election night coverage it starts tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern and continues all night long "closing bell" will be right back market rallying approaching session highs. we'll be right back. keeping your oysters business growing
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here we go 14 minutes left in the trading he will g. we are now in the "closing bell" "market zone," commercial-free coverage of all the action going into the close. mike santoli here to break own these crucial moments in the trading day. today we have got nancy tengler. stocks rallying into the close good to see you. s&p 500 on track for its second best election day performance ever andist its best daily performance in more than four months mike, we have taken a leg higher on the s&p and the dow there we are, above 2% gains the dow mostly turning positive, up 2.4%, what's driving the enthusiasm >> i am going to stick to the
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rule i was following all day trying not to attribute the one day moves in the market to it being election day tested the recent lows and you were oversold it would the not be weird when you have got a new ism number and all the rest going ochblt yes we are one day closer to election day being in the past we can say that i think there is sense of tension release that's starting to make its way into the market regardless of an outcome but i don't think we can may crowscopically examine what happened today and say the market has figured out something beyond what we are all observing when it comes to the probable in this vote. >> does this two-day jump mean if the election result is delayed and uncertain for the next couple of days that there is scope for a short-term pullback again >> i think it does, wilf anyone that tells you they know what's going on day to day is probably influenced by personal
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bias or an inflated view of their knowledge. i agree with mike. i think the ism numbers were spectacular. yes, they are backward looking but we have a lot of really good data that's coming through earnings have been exceptional we all know about liquidity. consumer free cash flow at historic highs and not big charge-offs. we had both capital one and american express come in and say charge-offs were better than expected there is a lot to like in the fundamental backdrop and in the near term i really don't know what's driving the market i could make an argument for either election result and i am going to be wrong in one case or another. and there is potential for more volatility note the vix and the options that we have purchased in our clients' portfolios have not gone down. they have maintained their value that they established last week even after yesterday's rally and today. that's interesting the me.
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>> banks have had a great couple of days following declines last week but the declines weren't too steep relative to the rest of the market. twofold. banks are down 28% year to date, so far this year and second at or above the august closing high. maybe, maybe about to build some momentum higher for the first time since back in june. the difference this time, perhaps, yields are higher and seemingly holding higher, which means if we do get stimulus then both macro boxes are checked at the same time for the first time in a while that would outweigh the risk was tighter regulation or higher corporate taxes potentially a blue wave might threaten but, mike, overall yields obviously very important and we discussed many times since june this sort of failed attempts to break out this one feels a little bit different because for the last two or
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three weeks even on good days for the market and bad days for the market the banks have relatively outperformed. >> as yields go, this group will probably follow. yes it has been a more resilient uptrend in bond yields i do think they traded tightly with expectations for stimulus maybe that's also keeping a bit of a bid in there. value stocks and laggards and cycle kgcal stocks have all been working. but that chart has shown that either the yields or the financials relative performance, it's still -- it's still a show-me situation to some degree. >> i think there is also still questions. you could make an argument for both sides andy bush yesterday said banks are in a risky spot if we see a blue wave because we don't know if biden is going to appoint someone like elizabeth warren as treasury secretary, if we are
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going to talk about reregulation of the banking sector. what do you do with this group >> we are underweight, that doesn't look very smart in the last couple of weeks or a little bit longer than that but of course that is the worry, that the regulatory environment is going to be such that -- even when regulations were relaxed, the stocks didn't outperform so it's -- to me, i mean the yield curve really matters, the results of the election of course matters the question is, are there better places to be even as the yield curve stoopens we had seen that mike said the yields are firming which is encouraging but we have a fed that's willing to be easy for years to come i think you sit back a little bit and you own the highest quality, custom is kind of a chicken move, but you don't take on the additional risk of the regional banks >> let's talk about what the market overall is pricing. a biden victory, according to many firms on wall street, one example is rosenberg research,
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david rosenberg's shop, which has constructed a biden and trump index. as you can see, with sectors inside each index that should gain for each administration it shows the biden index handily outperforming over the last few months and really each right now. they say sectors that will do well in the biden administration, include infrastructure play like construction materials and building products, environmental services and renewable energy producers, environmental services and then on the flip side, energy financials, aerospace and defense should win if trip gets reelected interesting we have seen wall street putting its bets on seven sectors and groups unclear whether any of that will happen a lot of times last year that was flipped around it didn't work out that way.
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there is a market and other factors like pandemic. >> for several months it worked after the 2016 election. i think there is no doubt the margaret is using its educated guesses using what we are all using, by the polls, what the policies will be if they win and by the betting market. that policy has been consistent and steady up to this point. but that doesn't mean a two to one chaps of something happening is a lock. i think that's why you have to take everything with a grain of salt because the market is not some sort of pure message on a political or policy outcome. but it is attempting to make its best guess. >> we are up 700 point now on the dow. the s&p also at a session high up 2.3%, regaining some of the steam as we approach the close >> alibaba shears under pressure as chinese regulators suspended the record-setting ipo of ant group. alibaba owns a large stake in
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that company we have the details. >> at issue here a closed door meeting between ma and chinese regulators and a changing reg la story environment that could disqualify ant from listing in shanghai days before its planneddy debut. the developments could have ramifications for ant's business model which in recent years put the focus on lending over payments it also puts the focus on jack ma he remains the face of both ant and alibaba. comments he made a week ago to the chinese financial system may have ruffled some feathers at the top. >> thanks for that mike, the other question and indicator here is what the chinese market is doing of late. it has been remarkably strong really when you look at it compared to sort of everything else around the rest of the world is this absolutely
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trading near highs you have a speculative froth going on there, too in some of the more long shot names a fascinating shoer. chinese authorities feeling as if this independent financial kind of fin tech company parallel to the official banking system is seemingly some kinds of a threat. it is remarkable that it has come down to this right at the precipice of the listing >> right it was just, mike, so big, and seemingly so oversubscribed. >> yeah. >> faber was talking about earlier about how many bets have already gone into this and was considered a way to prove the u.s. and the u.s. exchanges wrong. alibaba went public on the new york stock exchange. this was going to be a behemot on the shanghai. surprising. >> surprising that all of the bids went in for the ipo before these regulatory changes which could have an impact on the business we have to see what the demand is if people sort out what it is
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going to mean down the road. >> nancy do you have any comments. >> we increased our allocation to asia andat the expend of some of central europe yeah, i think this is a difficult situation. it is high theater it is kind of interesting. but i still think you want to be overexposed to asia. it's the fastest growing, most reliable technologically driven group of countries so that's where we have made our bets. >> what about u.s. stocks with asia exposure? is that a theme people should be looking at if you are betting over there that the growth is going to improve >> yeah, i mean it is a two-edged sword of course because you have a company like qualcomm or broadcom that have heavy exposure to china f. trade tensions reignite i think you want to be wary of that. companies like tesla and apple have seemed to be able to navigate -- and starbucks have
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been able to navigate the tensions but you have to be kind of swift-footed if you are going to play that angle. >> two minutes left in the trading day. mike, what are you focused on in internals? >> it has been strong all day. you look at the volume split, 85% or more upside volume on the new york stock exchange. threw see it, 6.5 to 1 upside to downside thenst look also at the riskiness of the stock leading the way. the high beta etfshsb. it has been outperforming the low volumetivity version over the last five days that's the tone we have been mentioning for while there is a cyclical trade building in this rkt that's reflected right there the volatility index starting to give up some of the juice in there. obviously we are at the moment that the volatility markets have been pricing into turbulence for a while. when the market is up big you have volatility back down.
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35 is not a low level of the vix. but you would think it is poised to give up a lot of ground if you get a settled result there is a tremendous number of bets placed downside in the vix. >> sara is into the close. my apologies. >> that's okay one minute into the close. and we are off those session highs but still pretty strong rally across the board the dow is up 570 points s&p 500 up almost 2% every sector is working today. you have got that growth and value trade working. industrials are the leaders. financials, right behind them. consumer discretion father and communication services though also going very strong the only sector that's lower is energy energy stocks under pressure despite the fact that oil prices are higher speaking of oil prices, copper prices are higher as well. the dollar is weaker treasury yields are higher if you put that picture all together it tells the same story of economic strength and whether that's a bet on a blue twav and
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potential large stimulus that would come out of that or just having some election certainty which a lot of folks are telling us today could be the trigger behind the rally on wall street. it's two days in a row, almost 3% so far for the week for the s&p 500. actually it is just over 3%, which means we made up more than half of last week's gains. there is the close on election one of the rallies we have seen on wall street on election day stocks used to be closed on election day before the 19 0s. since then, this goes down as one of the stronger ones. >> it was. well to "closing bell," i'm wilfred frost along with sara eisen and mike santoli let's check in on how we finished the dow was up ten minutes ago 715 points but closed up by 552 points. it did slip a fraction into to the close but as you can see a resoundingly strong session on this election day, up over 2%. s&p was up 1.8% as was the nasdaq ten of the 11 sectors were
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higher one was lower. energy does down by .75% oil rallied today, adding to yesterday's gains. the dollar was weaker. gold was up by .8% and yields continued their march higher at .88 on the ten-year overall, a very strong session coming up former white house chief of staff and former defense secretary leon panetta will discuss with us the election cults and possible impact on foreign relations and trade. nancy still with us. and alley joins the conferring as well. mike first to you. a pretty strong finish two days return of 3%. i guess the question on everybody's lips is to what extent can that be undone if we get a very disputed and drawn out election result? >> certainly would not be the welcome outcome, i don't think, some kinds of prolonged dispute.
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by the way i don't think it is the same as not yet official result because i think if we have enough information for the market to make a very informed conclusion as to the very likely winner that's enough to say we have some kind of predict. in the environment that being said i don't think we did much of anything today except for get less negative in the leaning of most investors. we came out of last week very much at the multimonth lows. pretty oversold. so you have this snapback so you can be open to pretty much whatever happens from here i think there are more bullish scenarios politically and policy wise as opposed to biden president, republican senate outside of that i think the market can make peace with what happens. >> mona, what are you telling your clients. >> thanks for having me on such a historic day in our nation's
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history. this is a market that sms to be sniffing out higher spending going forward. we are seeing that not only in the rally in cyclical stocks today but with treasuries back to close to .90 basis points we saw gold rally, we saw the dollaren all of these are alining to tell us that over the next four years markets expect a sizable fiscal stimulus, also sizable fiscal spending that when you compare the two camps we see the biden camp certainly has outlined specifically a $7 trillion spending plan. we haven't yet gotten that from the trump team we expect it would happen over time, but probable probably not the size and scope we are seeing out of the democrats something the market perhaps is sniffing out what we are saying from a portfolio positions perspective, near term bee like the balance between growth and value
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but over time we say layer in some of the cyclicality not only from a sector perspective, also from a gentlemenio graphic perspective so we can have non-u.s. assets alongside u.s. assets there are sectors we like independent of the growth value trade. it includes infrastructure, clean energy and the u.s. housing and strength in autos supported by low rates in some of the demographic trends we are seeing certainly something to think about as we get more trends of volatility positioning for broadening of participation and perhaps some of the theme you are seeing outside the growth value trade. >> nancy, value and cyclicals have been outperforming. any of the big tech names that pulled back taken your fancy. >> we reduced our exposure to google we do own facebook so those are obviously part of faang. but we have been adding to names like service now, also splunk.
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names that are going to benefit from infrastructure build in the tech space i would be adding -- if microsoft sort of sits here, we will likely be adding to that holding. we have been net sellers and now we are looking at repositioning and adding back to that name. so we do like a lot of the software and chip names. we have also added to texas instruments recently and we are taking a look -- we added lamb research. i do think -- i still like that space. we also added names like -- two names like honeywell at the expense of feddeck which has been just been a phenomenon lal perform performer. there have been lots of places to hide. that's what i have been telling clients, don't invest your politics. >> you had a good day today. honeywell, lamb research, they were among the big winners on wall street. mike, was it surprising to you to see both growth and value work together? it has been really one or the
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other so much lately, but today buy everything in buy everything in different mag any attitudes i don't think it is a big surprise i think today was all about let me make sure i am not underexposed to a market that's going to have a relief rally down the road. therefore it was more across the boards it was a whippy market i think a lot of people are talking about it being not the most liquid environment. a lot of big banks don't necessarily want to be heading out on a limb in this time of known volatility environment all that stuff -- also one thing i would mention when we talk about strong election days, some of the strongest election day stock performances, 2012, 2008 were both up significantly, as well as 1984, it didn't necessarily mean the next couple of weeks were strong it is not a hare binger of exactly what is coming. >> mona s energy cheap enough for you to be attracted to some
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of the fames there >> it is a great question. i think at some point energy does catch a bid it may be more of a story of the reopening play lately we have been seeing european economies doing backwards and shutting down and seeing closures there. that weighed on energy if we get a true eopening into 2021 we do think energy will play catchup the preferred way to play energy is more the transition to the clean energy names winds, solar, renewables all having strong growth prospects particularly if we get the biden win which he is committed to $2 trillion of spending in that space in particular. that's how we are playing energy right now. next year we could see a different story. >> we have seen some of those stocks perk up lately on that view let's hit some of the battlegrounds. arizona one of the traditionally red western states that could
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turn blue this election. jane wells is there, she's in phoenix. >> hi sara yeah, the west is really in flux by the way, the line never stopped here for in-person voting today traditional red states may still go red tonight but it is not a done deal. not even here in the state of barry goldwater and john mccain ♪ god bless america snees. >> that's martha mcsally she is america's first fae mail combat pilot she has been in a dogfight with former astronaut mark kelly. if kelly wins arizona will have two democratic senators and could flip the senate. it is a contest between covid and gun rights cally's wife is gabby if i have orders who nearly died in a mass shooting voter registration in arizona is split pretty evenly among
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democrats, republicans and independents but it is not just arizona, traditionally conservative nevada has started to turn blue. and the biggest surprise of all. texas. could texas eventually vote for a democrat what are the reasons behind this here are two growing latino populations and a lot of movement to these states from high-tech stets like california and californians bringing their politics with them. >> yes, we have seen them. jane, thank you. jane wells mona, as you watch some of the results coming in tonight. as you watch cnbc of course what market will you be watching? i am thinking back to 2016 it was really the bond market that showed that -- first, the dow plunged on the surprise win by donald trump. it didn't last very long but bonds led the way. we saw yields tick higher and the market with it what will you be watching. >> you hit it spot on there. i think the bond mark will be a gray indicator of what's to
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come like mike alluded to earlier, if we can make a case by the end of this even that the biden has a clear path i think you will see yields continue to kind of have some upward pressure if not, if there is a contested election or if we see the trump team really come back in a strong way, i think you will see that downward pressure on yields the equity market will be a telltale sign. we may get some sell the news no matter what happens after a strong two days. be wary on that. there are a few states we are watching in particular that we think will be early tells. you probably know them, florida, north carolina, ohio if they go to biden early, some of the top pollsters are saying it is game over at that opponent he probably win the race great early indicators we will probably get later tonight certainly bonds, egts, we will be watching the dollar, even gold to some extent as well. which can be both an inflation hedge and also an indicator of rates going forward.
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all asset classes on the table there. >> nancy, just a final question in terms of whether the election result will make a difference to the level of reaction if cases continue to spike or if deaths follow cases perhaps is a better way of putting it in terms of strength of lockdown that we might see in the months ahead over the winter months. >> i think so. i think we have heard vice presidented bian said that pretty clearly i worry about that because, you know, the recovery that receive seen has been strong consumer free cash flows as we talked about earlier is at historic highs when we have also seep is the lower income cohort has not been put back to work these are the people who are least able to not work women in particular. i am hopeful that we will find a way to engage in short lockdowns. i split my time between nevada and arizona. i am super keenly interested on what happens i don't have any particular
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insight but i am eager the see how we -- how this election plays out. >> as are all of us. wilfred before we go i am going to mention something that probably didn't get mentioned a lot on election day but i think it matters to the markets today. that is the central bank of australia cut interest rates it was a surprisingly dovish move to record lows and signalled they are going to do qe you see the dollar tanking today. it is a remind hear the central banks are in it and they are not beholden to elections. usually when central banks do thing they do thing in coordination because we are all sort of in the same cycle. it's are minder that the fed could have more bullets, whether we enter into a lockdown or there is some election uncertainty. powell has proven himself as a crisis firefighter i wanted to end on that note, with the weak dollar and that the fed is there no matter who wins the election and whether we get a result or not.
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>> a bigger factor on the dxy is the euro and the pound both of which are strong today and strong this week that follows lockdowns over the weekend. we talked about this yesterday perhaps the uk assets, currencies or equities have rallied because they also announced more stimulus. i guess that's the other key point. monetary or fiscal approximately see i think markets are reacting more to that than necessarily fears of how big the economic pullback could be if there are second lockdowns in the u.s., that's not the most likely outcome anyway. >> stimulus anywhere you can get it. >> stimulus outweighs it out in we are out of time thank you for joining us on election day happy viewing cnbc's election coverage tonight. up next, what the performance of the defense sector could be telling us and leon panetta will be with us to discuss the potential impact
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of the election on foreign relations. poept miss our election coverage starting tonight 7:00 p.m. eastern continuing all night long through tomorrow morning. "closing bell" back in 90 seconds.
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-- to the industrials. now it is down at a discount in fact a multiyear discount clearly, heavy defense spending over the past several years, this fear or expectation perhaps that that mod rates a little bit. historically a lot of that kind of fear in the defense sector gets priced in up front. then over time it tends to outperform again but it is an interesting, perhaps, policy influenced trade that's not spoken about quite as much as energy and financials and some of the other kind of regulatory areas. >> mike, thanks for that for more on how tonight's election will impact foreign policy and defense, let's bri in leon panetta who do you think president xi jinping wants to win tonight >> you know, i think that,
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having engaged with president xi, that he much more prefers to be able to have a dialogue with whoever becomes president of the united states. and so i would think deep down he probably looks forward to perhaps a biden administration that will at least conduct a greater dialogue with the chinese. i don't think it represents necessarily a weaker line against china. i think joe biden still believes that china is a serious competitor to the united states and that we have to deal with them from strength but i do believe that he feels that it is important to engage in a dialogue with the chinese. >> what about policy towards the middle east, iran of course of particular focus do you think that will change more markedly depending who
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wins >> i don't think there is any question that joe biden is someone who believes in asserting united states' world leadership we have gone through a period frankly where the united states has withdrawn from a leadership role in the world. and also withdrawn from strong alliances that the united states has had in the past. i think a biden administration will go back to the united states as a world leader and will develop those strong alliances. and along those lines, i think that with regards to the middle east that biden will try to engage with our allies, great britain, perhaps, germany, russia, and china, to determine whether or not we can put the iran agreement back in place and begin the evident to tffort to t iran back to the negotiating table. >> mr. secretary, we just showed
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a chart of aerospace and defense stocks underperforming into today, election day. do you think that is the correct thesis that a market would have, that under aed bian administration and potentially a blue wave that you would see less military spending in favor of other priorities like climate change and infrastructure? >> well, knowing joe biden, he believes in a strong military. so -- and he said as much, that he wants to make sure that the united states has the strongest military force on the face of the earth. and that means, obviously, making sure that we do have the technology and equipment and weaponry and force structure that is critical the our mio ou military i think what is going to be added to that mix is a strong diplomatic effort as well. we have undermined a lot of our diplomacy in the world joe biden believes diplomacy has
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to be part and parcel with our military strength. what i think you will see is an increase in force for the state department and department maes when it comes to international affairs. >> on china in particular, it is really hard to read, secretary panetta, how tough joe biden would be on china. he did call president xi a thug, though has been critical in the past of president trump's use of tariffs and just the way he dealt with china how do you expect a biden administration to confront china on sol of these issues >> well, i think the one thing that joe biden believes is that you have to negotiate with our adversaries from a position of strength and i think for example, with russia -- i think russia has sensed weakness on the part of the united states and taken advantage of that. i think joe biden will be much more assertive in terms of making clear that there are lines there that we will not
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allow russia to cross. and i think the same thing is true with china. if you are going to negotiate with china, you have to negotiate with china from a position of strength, which means that we maintain a strong military presence in the pacific, that we are very clear about china not interfering with the freedom of the seas in the south china sea. he will have a strong position on hong kong a strong position with regards to taiwan. there will be clear lines that will be established. but having done that, i think then the issue is are there areas where china and the united states can try to develop a better approach, particularly with regards to trade? >> does a trade deal, mr. secretary, with the uk become less likely or less favorable to the uk under joe biden >> i think, since joe biden is someone who believes in working with our allies, that he certainly will sit down with great britain and hear their
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case and determine whether or not there should be an effort to develop an approach that will help great britain in dealing with the whole brexit mess but as to whether that will be a first priority or not, i doubt it i think it is going to be down the road because we have so much to deal with in this country, particularly with regards to covid-19 >> finally a lot of people expect, secretary panetta, if biden does win for him to reengage in the agreements like jcpoa, like world health organization, what am i missing -- there are many of them how quickly can you flip that switch and just get back into those group efforts? >> well, i think joe biden has made clear that we are going to re-establish our relationship with our allies. and in re-establishing a strong
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relationship with our allies that will put some of these agreements back in place, particularly the paris climate accord i think there will be a effort to develop a strong allied approach in dealing with iran. i think there will be an effort to work with our allies when it comes the dealing with our adversaries, whether it is with nato or whether it is with other alliances in the pacific so i expect that you are going to see a biden administration that is really engaged with the world in trying to deal with the crises that we are confronting this is a global world you can't run away from that so you have to deal with climate change you have to deal with security issues, and you have to confront our adversaries in that world. but it should be done through alliances. >> paris climate that was the one i forgot. you reminded me. secretary leon pa netta thank
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you for joining us. >> good to be here. coming up, uber and lyft shares have been rallying on expectations california's prop 22 will pass and exempt the companies from reclassifying their workers as employees up next our guest thinks this initiative is a corporate power grab at the expense of workers. vege tigt miss our election coraonht starting tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern and continuing all through the night. we'll be right back here on "closing bell. when you switch to xfinity mobile,
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time now for our daily coronavirus tracker. in the u.s., the seven-day average of current hospitalization is up to nearly 46,000 that's the highest level we have seen since august 16th top white house coronavirus adviser deborah birx breaking rank with president trump this week in an internal memo according to the woechlt brirks directly contradicting president trump and warning that we are quote entering the most concerning and most deadly phase of this pandemic, leading to increasing mortality moantime a potential setback on the rapid testing front. a rapid antigen test made by quidel could only detect 32% of
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positive cases in asymptomatic patients when compared to a traditional pcr lab test and mckesson which works with quidel to produce that test higher today the stock finished up 5.25%. they supply a lot of products including hand sanitizers and gear to doctor's office. >> up over 5% at the close today. bailouts and battlegrounds up next, the latest mortgage bailout numbers anwhhed etr they could turn the tide in some key battleground states. back in a couple of minutes. remembering all my hr passwords. my boss doesn't remember approving my time off. let's just... find that email. the old way of doing business slows everyone down. with paycom, employees enter and manage their own hr data in one easy-to-use software.
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humana - a more human way to healthcare. welcome back time now for an election update with shepard smith what's the latest. >> more than 100 million americans voted early. and their votes are already in the books according to the u.s. elections project. millions more lining up across the country today. turnout said to be heavy in many different areas. a federal judge ordering the postal service to go through facilities in several of the battleground states to look for any remaining mail-in ballots. the order focusing on facilities this some of the battlegrounds, pennsylvania, michigan, georgia, texas, and florida that's part of a lawsuit against the united states postal service over measures that have slowed the mail delivery. the first polls close at 7:00 p.m. eastern 4:00 pacific. just two and a half hours from now. georgia the key state to watch
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this the first wave. former vice president biden traveled to scranton, pennsylvania stopped by his childhood home will also went to philly. said he is happy with the early turnout across pa. >> pennsylvania has been turning out in droves. so i am confident that the people who didn't vote last time are showing up to vote and i feel good about pennsylvania. >> the democratic nominee back home in wilmington delaware where he will watch the returns tonight. as for the president he visited the republican national committee always in arlington. thanked supporters there said hasn't written an acceptance or concession speech. his mood, caution. >> i think we are going to have a great night. but it is politics and it's elections so you never know. >> one state where results will lickly be slow seven counties there won't even
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be counting mail-in ballots until after today. we will have it all for you here on cnbc starting at 7:00 p.m. eastern, 4:00 p.m. with a special edition of the news, the vote >> can't wait for that you mentioned a couple of states there. i know we can't get a confirmed full result in if you hours tonight but which of the other states you are watching out for that if they went against expectations for any candidate it would be a blow to them. >> against expectations, there are many of them florida is going to be early and important. think about this in florida, 9 million people voted early. that's more than 95% of the total that voted in florida in 2016 we are going to get a tranche of votes very early, probably around 8:00 eastern time then among the democratic strong hollywood counties, broward county counts very slowly often because they have so many same-day voting. i heard from a poll worker and
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the election supervisor in broward county when asked how things are going she said it is boring meaning those numbers could come in soon as goes florida, maybe early we will see, wilf. we know president trump needs to win it but he would have a tough path otherwise if you believe the polls. shep, thank you. >> sure. >> look forward to much more from you and the team tonight. our shepard smith. wisconsin is going to be another key battleground state that could decide who wins the white house. our phil lebeau is there for a closer look at how coronavirus is influencing voters. high case load. >> reporter: very high case load positivity rate near 30% on a typical election day in milwaukee we would see long lines behind me. we saw them in the morning but once midday hit only a trickle of folks coming in
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covid-19 is a big part what have is influencing the vote here look at the survey look at the number of people who have a personal connection with covid-19 staggering almost 90% of the people said i have got a connection, maybe i know somebody who had it and maybe i had it myself. as a result it is influencing how people look at this election. >> we have affected the economy to the extent that we are harming people a lot of my friends lost their businesses and i don't understand the reason for night the latest surge has intensified my desire to vote. i was already pretty clear on who i was going to vote for ahead of time. but this is just solidified it now. >> so far, 162,000 people in milwaukee voted early. and they started counting those ballots at the central count facility here in milwaukee we will be back over there a little bit later on tonight. the mayor just gave an update,
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guys in which he said, look, we believe that we will top the number of votes that were cast in 2016 because 60% of the votes that were cast then, they have already got those in the early vote here, and they believe that as they slowly work through that that eventually bycal when the polls close they will top the number of people who voted back in 2016. guys, back to you. >> phil lebeau in milwaukee. thank you. up next, afl-cio president richard trumka discusses whether union woers ulrkcod stage a strike if joe biden wins the white house and president trump refuses to accept it we will talk about that when we come back. we're excited to do business with you
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♪ ♪ heart monitors that let your doctor watch over you, just like you watch over your best friend. another life-changing technology from abbott, so you don't wait for life. you live it. stocks closed sharply higher today, in fact, second best election day performance ever. the s&p 500 rising 1.8%. the dow up 2%. that was the dow's best day since july 14th. most sectors closed higher today. the only exception to that was energy industrials topped the list. the nasdaq did well. tech stocks were certainly part of the party, up 1.8%. and the russel 2 thousand index
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of small caps closed higher by almost 3%. it was the winner. polls closing beginning in just few hours. where do america's workers stand on this election joining us now the afl-cio president. we know you and a lot of union leaders endorsed joe biden what about the union members themselves president trump appealed to the workers last time around with goals of going up against china and bringing back american manufacturing. >> well, our members have known joe biden for a lot of years i have known him personally for 40 years plus. joe has always been a friend of the working people our members are overwhelmingly supporting joe biden in this election we are making our voices heard in this election and we are voting for change and we are voting for a better tomorrow joe biden is going to be elected president of the united states when all the votes are counted >> what policies do you care about the most we have had you on in recent
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weeks to talk a lot about coronavirus and worker protections, osha. do you actually expect a lot of that stuff to change if biden does win >> it will change immediately. president trump has made osha into a cadaver it has fewer inspectors than it has ever had it does not -- we don't have a safety standard to protect essential workers on the job right now. there is nothing they can do to protect us they don't even give us proper protective equipment joe biden will change that immediately upon taking office he will starrt to bring back inspectors, make our health and safety mean something. he will do something that president trump never did. he understands that you can't fix the economy until you fix covid-19 and you can't fix covid-19 until you protect essential workers. he will protect essential workers immediately. there will be a sea change from a worker's health and safety
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point of view on day one. >> what type of policy do you want to see on china something closer to president trump's? or something closer to president obama's? >> president trump did some things right on china, but he did them in the wrong way. he tried to attack china unilaterally you simply can't do that it has to be a multilateral approach president trump didn't know how to play with his allies. didn't know how the solicit them coordinate with them or get them to help us harness china and keep them and make them play by the rules. joe biden will use our allies use a multilateral approach and hem china in so they have to apply by the rules or all of us will stop them from gaining from their cheating >> wanted to ask you specifically richard about prop 22 the ballot measure in california that uber and lyft and so many other gig economy companies have been spending to get past to keep their workers as independent contractors
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i know you oppose it but uber and lyft threatened to pull out of california if it goes against them why do you think that is the wrong thing? >> that's a joke they are not going to pull out of california. it is too big of a market for them where are they going to go every place else that does the same thing they wrote prop 22 so it would exempt them from things like social medicare and unemployment insurance. the rules they wrote if prop 22 passes you will have unsafe conditions for drivers and pass skbrers alive because it reduces the safety rules applicable to them they want to have it both ways they want to be able to not pay all of the social safety cost asks use all the social safety benefits to make profit. it simply won't happen if they lose there or lose later in another federal act which we will go forward with i am sure they are not going to leave
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california it is too big of a market. >> you are very confident. you stated matter-of-factly that vice president biden will win tonight. any nerves any concerns that the polls might be missing something again like they did in 2016? >> first of all the polls right now are probably more accurate because of the number of people who voted already. it is easier to game that when you have already voted it was easier for us to get volunteers than ever before. we have more people showing up than ever before for phone banks, more phone banks, more texts and we have got a positive response back i feel confident that when all the votes are counted joe biden will be the president of the united states. let's hope. >> richard, i wanted let's hope that the president is more graeshs in defeat than he was in victory.
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just want to push back a little bit because the number of police unions backed president trump, and also the more i read about workers in the energy space, there were some alarm bells raised when vice president biden in the final presidential debate did say he would transition the country away from fossil fuels so it is not exactly as unanimous a picture in the unions as you are painting it. >> i never said it was unanimous. i said we are going to win big, very big, probably by a 35% margin of our members. that's significant our members understand who is good for them. they know that president trump has been bad for them. he hurt our health and safety. he has taken away overtime he has not given us a standard he has filled in with union buster filled the department of labor with union busters all of those have hurt workers he has done everything he can could undermine collective
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bargaining.even the members that voted for him last time understand he didn't deliver on his promises and that a larger number, larger number this time around are going to vote for joe biden for two reasons, one, because trump didn't deliver and two because they have known joe biden for a long period of time and he has always been proworker and prounion always. >> richard, great to he is a you. thank you for joining us. >> thanks for having me. >> don't forget, cnbc's election night coverage starts tonight, 7:00 p.m. eastern time continues all night long you don't want to miss it. up next, some surprising stats. we'll break down exclusive data on mortgage bailout this is the battleground states ahead. plus what's likely to have a bigger impact on the market, the election or the fed meeting. don't forget about that. sara certainly hasn't of we will discuss, coming up
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up next, mortgage bailouts in the battleground. we will break down new exclusive figures from america's sngwi states they may surprise you. next turn on my tv and boom,
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we are back. new data on mortgage gailout diana, how is that going >> every week we get the latest count of the number of homeowners in government, private sector, mortgage gailouts, and that number is rising again just over 3 million of active mortgages, now we have an exclusive breakdown by state which offers crucial insight
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into where borrowers are struggling the most. in tl aflorida, texas and nevad, higher than average. north carolina is right around average in the 5% range. these bills allowed them to delay payments in three-month increments up to a year. we are seeing an uptick as well as some fborrowers coming back into forbearance >> diana, do those figures off correspondent with other
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metrics, like unemployment and other standard of living type issues >> absolutely. that's why you see the numbers so high in nevada and florida. those states were disproportionately hard hit by unemployment because they have entertainment and hospitality as the main driver. >> interesting read on the map there. thank you. e > up next, the election versus thfederal reserve. the feds two-day meeting takes off tomorrow which one will matter more to the market we will discuss straight ahead ♪ ♪
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investors will be closely watching the results of today's election before tom's opening bell yesterday the fed opted to maintain the range as it dealt with covid-19. what will be the biggest catalyst that meeting or the outcome of the election the outcome of the election is what investors are focused on
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now. nobody expected any action of the fed this week. but over the longer term -- powell's term is up in 2022. and auft trstralia cut rates an euro european ur european union did >> the interesting thing about this week. nobody expects any actual moves, any tactical maneuvers, but does the fed feel compelled to answer those people who say it is out of bullets, do they talk about longer term interest rates are going up a little bit. do they consider it encouraging?
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that could be relevant down the road >> some other things that raises the point about physicfiscal po, the fact we are expecting more fiscal policy, but the fed not expected to loosen or tighten it >> to some people the curve is coming into alignment with a lot of other indicators like what the commodities are doing and market it seems like things are moving into that direction, but we don't know if it will be interrupted with a wave of another shutdown >> what is your dashboard tomorrow morning, mike, assuming we get some results?
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what are we watching in the market >> i think people will be fixated on the overnight futures. i think that's wherethe concentrated efforts will be people are trying to guess what the majority of other people will do with a noble outcome >> all election coverage that you need right here. don't change the channel starting at 7:00 p.m and before then "fast money" which starts now >> i'm melissa lee this is "fast money. tonight we are trading the vote. less than two hours from the first poll closing tonight it is possible we won't know a decisive winner for days, or will we? stocks are surging with the s&p 500 posting its second best


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