tv Power Lunch CNBC October 27, 2020 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT
good afternoon, everybody. glad you could join us on this tuesday. election one week away stocks are mixed after yesterday's big drop as earnings season brings with it more questions than answers a flurry of companies are reporting but skipping the guidance we've got those details. plus eli lilly sinking after it says it will end its coronavirus drug trial for pairs while pfizer says its vaccine won't be available before the election. later, a $35 billion chip deal
amd to buy xylinx. is there more room to run on amd? we'll explore that one when "power lunch" begins right now >> earnings season is supposed to be a report card for companies. let's go to bob pisani for more on this lack of guidance bob? >> kelly, once again, the fourth quarter, another quarter with the lack of guidance it's a bit of a problem because the analysts again having a hard time figuring out what the right numbers are. remember, the earnings numbers have been coming in very well, generally weathering but again, big companies, no guidance from caterpillar, 3m, xerox, stanley black and decker.
others like harley davidson didn't give guidance either. raytheon, corning. no guidance from companies. analysts have a tougher time and they've been very conservative and wrong so far fortunately wrong on the conservative side. look at all these companies out there. 83% are beating for the third quarter and they've been beating by almost 20%. it's an amazing beat and shows you the analysts have been way, way too conservative look the cummings today, they make truck parts, truck engines all over the world they had numbers no analysts had. they were 40% above the consensus numbers. amazing blowout numbers but the stock is barely moving that's the problem we're having so far we're almost halfway through earnings season. not translating into big price gains. that's a problem remember, we've all got that stimulus vaccine and election issues that are completely
messing up the analyst's ability to figure out what the right prices are on top of no guidance back to you. >> thank you very much, bob. how do you navigate a market with less company guidance in an election a week away, uncertainty around the path of a pandemic let's find some answers from m samantha azzarello also wonder, what are analysts good to if they're actually so far off with their estimates >> well, i mean, i think in this environment the lannists probably are relying a little bit more on their models and inputting economic numbers which really have been all over the
place. so let's cut them a little bit of slack one thing we do at asset management is we do natural language processing. we'll check the underlying sentiment within a great deal of earnings outlet calls or transcripts. through those sentiments and tracking the changes in the language, we can actually get an idea of where things are heading on a top down level. >> samantha, i asked that question to evan to be a little provocative and frankly be a little bit of a smart ass. but be that as it may, i am struck by the fact that the predictability of company earnings is so difficult right now because those companies don't know what the future's going to hold. so how can you as a portfolio strategist, as a guider of people putting money to work or putting money to work yourself, how can you make decisions about
where to go? >> i mean, it's a fantastic point. we're not even remotely out of the fog. i remember when we weren't getting company corporate guidance and then we started to get some and we thought that would be like harking back to the way things were before and now we're looking again and you're right, we're not getting guidance and i would just add consensus estimates improve a massive amount between q2 to q3. but i don't blame the analysts if we're looking at how much the picture is changing, there's so much uncertainty i guess when i look around, there's a lack of stability in the data that's translating to a lack of conviction. we're sticking to the plan until we know more i think a wait-and-see approach is good until we know more >> three years from now will it
be uncertain or will i be happy that i followed your advice, stayed the course and made some marginal trims in my portfolio am i going to be happy in three years? >> so, i don't think we need to necessarily wait three years there's always reasons so not invest and stay on the sidelines and events that emanate uncertainty. we're not advocating for waiting it to be totally clear but i think we're all in agreement, we're in the second phase of the recovery there's a lot of muddling. we're kind of meandering right now. we need a vaccine and then we need the vaccine to be widely distributed. once we get those two things and arguably all the data suggests that will happen at some point next year, then i think we can feel more comfortable knowing that, yes, things have changed because of covid but we can go forward with more clarity. in the meantime, asset allocation, diversification,
maybe we want to have growth and make sure we're picking you on some of the cheaper names. all those tweets we can do otherwise we do want to stick to a diversified portfolio. that's how we get our clients in terms of meeting our financial goals. >> you say a blue wave outcome, evan, would be the most positive for markets in the near term because it the one outcome that guarantees sufficient fiscal report later in the new year, a blue wave becomes yet a head wind for u.s. stocks because of the prospect for higher taxes. >> i think that's right. in the current environment what we need is to make sure that the economy has enough stability to it and the blue wave really is the only one, the only outcome where you know you're going to get that necessary fiscal support. but investors who fall in love with the blue way outcome may come to get a little more cautious as we enter the new year there's an underlying assumption
that many investors have that, oh, biden won't raise taxes too much, it's too recovery biden and kamala harris see this as a moral issue they want to be moving in the direction of redistribution. we could very well be looking to the taxes being hiked as planned across both corporates, high-income individual, capital gains taxes. that doesn't speak to divesting from the market but that speaks to making sure you're adequately diversified between the u.s. and international markets. sloks you have that international exposure, you're not as exposed to the tax risks and still play the broader cyclical recovery. >> you used a word if biden does
prevail, and i think it will be a lot and it's redistribution. but redistribution by another name is simply the graduated income tax basically but that's how the money gets redistributed. evan brown, thank you very samantha azzarello, thank you for your time. we appreciate it kelly. >> shares of facebook, twitter and google all higher ahead of tomorrow's senate hearings, where their ceos are set to appear virtually ylan has more on what mark zuckerberg is going to say >> i've obtained a copy of the written comments of mark zuckerberg he says without section 230, they would perhaps field the risk of constant litigation as they try to remove potentially harmful content as well as misinformation however, he does acknowledge that the debate about section
230 shows that people of all political persuasions are unhappy with the status quo. and he strikes what sounds like a more conciliatory tone saying that i believe congress should update the law to make sure it is working as intended he said he supports ideas around transparency, collaboration and some of the bipartisan proposals and looks forward to meaningful dialogue he said he looks forward to public scrutiny, says i know we will be judged by how we perform in this pivotal time and live up to the trust that people have in the platform there you have the written testimony of ceo mark zuckerberg, being more conciliatory, acknowledging there could be changes to section 230 the company my
suppo support. >> how would you compare so far what we've heard from zuckerberg to the approach that jack dorsey is taking? >> yeah, dorsey appears to be a little bit more combative here you know, arguing that if section 230 were somehow weakened that it would actually entrench the current players in the marketplace and make it harder for smaller startups to find their footing in a very competitive landscape. so it will be interesting to see the personalities of the ceos at play tomorrow and how they perhaps take different approaches we've seen different approaches in how they moderate the content on their platform, taking down certain items and certain its yells allowi -- item still stand or stand with restrictions. they've taken different strategies within their own companies. we'll see how that plays out tomorrow >> yeah, i wonder how much of it goes back to facebook's size and
scale and ability to moderate content if they need to in some kind of new paradigm ylan, thank you. >> it will be a very interesting day on capitol hill. >> oil down as the sector continues to lag a top lanalyst, our fave, will join us. >> and eli lilly ends its hospitalized drug trials and the latest on the companies fighting coronavirus, working on vaccines and more. more "power lunch" right after this ♪
welcome back, everybody. time for our power rundown we start with the latest coronavirus case counts as the seven-day average in the united states has risen now to a new record meg? >> hi, tyler that record is just approaching 70,000 case as day in the u.s. that's of course higher than the peak we saw oaf tver the summerd the spring it's really being driven by cases in the midwest but we're searing cases rise in all regions in the country really concerning is hospitalizations are rising, too. there are almost 43,000 americans in the hospital with covid-19 and the number of deaths reported each day has started to tick higher as well we're now at about a seven-day
average of almost 800 daily deaths from covid-19 now, there's a lot of talk about we're doing more testing, doesn't that mean we're just tushing turning up more cases? well, the test positivity cases is also rising we're doing more testing but also picking up more infections so as a country, we're up to about 6% or 7% positivity in terms of those testing numbers. >> our next topic is earnings from the big drug makers like pfizer, merck or eli lilly which has stopped a test of one of its ant bo antibody drugs for hospitalized patien patients >> it was a missed for pfizer and mixed. it was a big beat for merck actually analysts in general saying nothing too surprising in any of these quarters you're seeing,
essentially maintaining or tightening all of their 2020 outlooks it's always interesting to hear how that are looking a the recovery pfizer saying essentially the peak of the impact was not as severe as they feared but the recovery has been slower one really interesting thing about listening to all these conference calls today, the thing nobody was really asking about, the election. four years ago all you heard about was people being afraid that hillary clinton was going to come in and lower drug pricesthis yeprice prices this year the election is not even on the radar. maybe because all these companies are working on covid vaccine and drugs. >> we come back to eli lilly and its trial of an antibody treatment hattlted what's the news there? >> last night the nih and eli
lilly saying it looked like it wasn't going to work for the patients this trial had been paused a couple weeks ago and this is just the conclusion of that. elie lilly says it is hopeful the drug will still be useful earlier in the course of the disease. that's an update on the drug front. and over on the vaks vaccine sw got an update from pfizer. we are not seeing results yet, we may see them soon butly we'l before the election. there had been so much talk about election day and vaccine results. probably not before november 3rd, ty. >> thank you very much kelly. >> let's bring in aletha young, an analyst at kanter fit gerazg.
what's the most important takeaway for investors >> i think the most important takeaway is there's not going to be a one size fits all to a covid treatment. and anti-retro vie wa retrretros it's going to take all different kinds of therapies for herd immunity >> if you're investing, there's a lot of people, i actually get asked pretty often from people about the vaccine stocks and whether they're attractive again, i never know what to say on anything like that. but in this particular case, for all the people who are interested in saying, okay, how do i invest, what do i do if i want to get in on this vaccine trend that's coming, i mean, what do you do now some of these stocks have had massive run-ups this year, the smaller, more speculative ones but what do you do now
>> i think you can look at some of the ones that aren't vaccine like a gilead and regeneron. when you look at regeneron or gilead, it's still a broad-based business story but the facts are gilead probably we estimate could sell a billion dollars this quarter of remdesivir and regeneron is approved for emergency use, that could be a dig driver for earnings. we don't know sustainability and how long covid revenues will last but feels like this situation is going on far longer than we expected it might be a boost for the next year or two. >> that's interesting. so if people are realizing that there isn't going to be this kind of magic pill vaccine coming in the next few weeks and we're flipping a switch in a different paradigm, if the reality is settling in it could be another year or two where we need these treatments as basically a primary way of dealing with the disease, then
all of a sudden regeneron and gilead are potentially more attractive stocks? >> i would agree i think so the things we wrestle with are should we model $3 million for the next ten years or one year or three years i think, you know, the sentiment overall is this is a protracted fight we're having in 2019 and we're not going to be done with it in 2020 and 2021 and 2022 there could be further treatment and stockpilingi don't think it it's going to be a one and done. it's going to take a while to thread the needing on 320 million americans. >> it's too bad. there's other companies in the mix, eli lilly, astrazeneca, are
those other that people should look at here >> i think all of them i don't cover them directly. the companies first with the vaccine are likely the ones that will benefit with data there's a lot of different methodology about how vaccines are developed. we have to see what data comes out of some of these updates, some of the ones in early, mid november to get a sense of how the market is driven >> thank you so much thanks for joining us today to walk us through all of those developments tyler? >> thanks, kelly still ahead, is the bitcoin boom back we'll tell you what's driving the crypto currency to its highest level in nearly three years. plus, amd, one of the best performing stocks over the past year does its deal to buy xylynx
it's real very additive to the amd modelfirst of all, it is it immediately accretive upon closing. it brings significant margin expansion as well profitability and free cash flow generation, but more importantly than that, we really believe that together we can define the future of high-performance computing >> amd shares sinking even after the company topped estimates on its top and bottom lines and raised full-year guidance. the trading nation team, jc o'hara, mark tepper. a strong earnings report from amd, strengthened pc, gaming and data center yet the stock is selling off down 5%.
tell us why. >> i think it's a buying opportunity. first and foremost shareholders are being diluted but for really good reason. they're going to have just an absolutely much better company if you think about it, amd with this xyzilxilinx we bought it because of its data center, pcs and gaming there's two new gaming stations coming out, a new playstation and xbox and guess whose chips are in there not nvidia amd. i tried to buy one for my son and they're all sold out
now you add in the programmable chip, it gets them into that booming 5g cycle as i said, shareholders are being diluted. you'll be better off because you have an excellent end market >> your thoughts on how the market is responding to this $35 billion deal and how it compares to other deals in the chip semiconductor history? >> any time there's a deal, stocks directly involved always experience choppy trading over the short and intermediate term. often more time is needed for the technical trends to fully emerge i think it's a good idea to look back at a relative proceeding deal for potential analog for this situation if you remember back on june 1st of 2015, it's not apples to
apples, that was an all-cash deal versus all-stock for amd. in 2016 there was a decent three-month correction of nearly 25% immediately after that deal was announced. time was needed to incorporate the new information and reprice intel. in august it was able to resume up trend rallying into 2016. the moral of this is give amd so time so a trend can formally develop. >> thank you follow us on twitter kelly, back to you >> seema, thank you very ahead, is there a risk to the energy market heading into this election plus new results from cnbc's all-american survey. do voters feel they're better off since president donald trump took office? and microsoft earnings after the bell a top analyst will break down the three most important things to watch, all coming up right after this break
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welcome back, everybody, i'm sue herera a senior white house official reportedly saying medicare will cover the cost of the yet to be approved coronavirus vaccine for older americans. the official toll the associated press, the policy change will be announced soon in philadelphia the police commissioner says there will be more officers on the streets tonight. this is in anticipation of further unrest following the police shooting of a black man on monday. >> in the english channel, a boat carrying migrants has capsized killing at least four people, two of them children french authorities say they have
rescued 15 people as the search continues. and let's end on a light are note, shall we camilla, the duchess of corn wall getting a demonstration of sniffer dogs learning how to defect covid-19 infections they are being trained by a charity that camilla supports. kelly, back to you >> you made my dad's day with that story anything with a dog, he loves it >> excellent we'll try and do that every day for you. look at that guy one is called basil -- >> i admit, i love it, too >> the other one is called buddy. so it's basil and buddy. camilla said they are the future of early covid-19 detection because there's obviously sometimes a shortage of tests. these guys have only been in service two days and they got it right the first time >> wow >> there you go. >> and it would be great i'd rather have a dog sniff me
than stick the swab up my nose, that's for sure. thank you very >> you got it. >> let's go to eric for the numbers. >> reversing yesterday's oil's losses yesterday, shutting down in the gulf of mexico due to hurricane zeta producers turning off about half of u.s. offshore oil production. later today we'll get u.s. supply data from the api and tomorrow we'll get numbers from eia. analysts expecting inventory to rise by just over 1 million barrels. tyler. >> thank you very. oil prices are below $40 and down 5% over the past weeks as fears of more lockdowns in the u.s. spark demand worries.
as always, great to have you with us. what is the range you anticipate for oil for the rest of let's say 2020 and where would you start to be worried it might start slip sliding away? >> we think wti will average between 37 and 42 for the remainder of the year. we get more optimistic about oil next year, particularly the fourth quarter when oil could trend in the low 50s but things we're watching for really are the demand story if we get a vaccine or not could be very impactful for the shape of oil demand recovery we're also watching, as you mentioned, the rising covid-19 case count and whether it needs to return to shelter-in-place poll signatureicie policies u.s. gasoline is 10% of total demand if we start to see u.s. drivers keeping their cars in the garage, that would be something we would be worried about with
oil prices >> and obvious there is a rise with europe. i would imagine you might be ultimately concerned, perhaps even most, about a rise in covid-19 cases in china, if that causes that market to slow markedly because china is a big demand participant >> you nailed it, tyler. our biggest concern would be obviously anything that happens in china china has really suppressed the virus, it has been the recoffeerecoffekof -- recovery of the chinese market, if we're to get a potential slowing of growth in china, that would be almost a worst case outcome for the oil market we'll be watching it very closely. >> on the supply side, you have pointed to the return of some libyan barrels to the market talk us through that >> libyan production has come back faster than anticipated
we've had some breakthroughs in the security front, the fighting that had been going on for years. we started to see libyan production come back rapidly we're looking at a situation where libya could be reaching that 1 million barrel a day mark that's putting a lot of pressure on opec, which would have to accommodate these barrels to keep the market balanced while saudi arabia could sit down more barrels, other countries like iraq are struggling with the current cuts they have not been able to pay civil servants since september they almost need every last barrel libya is weighing on the market. as we think out to 2021 and where the election becomes impactful, if you were to get a biden victory, we are potentially looking at the return of iranian barrels as well if we get back into the iranian nuclear deal that's another potential headache for opec in 2021 on the supply side. >> you raised joe biden there and i wonder whether what he
said last week in the debate about big oil companies and drifting a were from fossil or carbon-based fuels, does that move the needle at all in the oil market did it >> well, i think certainly there has been some ambiguity about the biden energy policies. he's been very clear when he's been campaigning in swing states like pennsylvania that he is not looking to ban fracking. he's talked about investing in renewables but the question was what is this general stance towards the u.s. fossil fuel industry the campaign was quick to come out after the debate and say he's not talking about banning fracking what he's talking about is phasing out subsidies for fossil fuel producers in the united states i would say that the one thing to bare in mind is any changes in the tax code would likely require congressional approval that's where the make-up of congress will be very congress to see whether those are
enacted. >> thank you very much as always it's great to talk to you. >> thank you >> kelly >> let's turn to the question that we ask every four years, are you better off than you were four years ago it's a question voters ask every time around during a presidential election. we're asking it in our cnbc economic survey. steve liesman is here with the results. steve? >> kelly, thanks very much just one week before the big presidential election, a plurality of americans say indeed they are better off than they were four years ago the cnbc all-america survey finding 47% of the public saying they're better off than they were four years ago, 17% worse and 35% about the same we're up to 36% saying the economy is excellent or good 62% saying it's fair or poor that's better than it was in
april. not as good as before if you look at our december polling where it was quite a bit better. what about the outlook for the economy? big story here 47% say it's going to get better, 15% say worse. the big story is the don't knows on the 18%, that's high and a lot of uncertainty and on the top line head-to-head poll, former vice president joe biden leading president donald trump by 11 points according to this survey. we've had this steady tick up for joe biden. he began when we started polling this every quarter, five points, nine points, now 11 points still some possibility for the race to tighten but right now joe biden with a very commanding lead of 11 points. >> how might it still tighten? granted we only have a week le left >> we have a republicans and democratic pollster who advise us they say president donald trump
has to deepen his base and draw from the many nonvoters in white noncollege-educated block right there. for biden, the trick right now is he's got to get his new voters, newly registered young voters who are a big part of his lead, he's got to get them to the polls this those two groups historically are not terrific to count on to vote he's got to get them out and trump has to deepen his base those are the two things we're hearing from our pollsters >> all right steve, thank you steve liesman. tyler. >> election a week away. coming up in power movers, we've got mutual funds, motor cycles and avocados bitcoin rising again today, highest level since january 2018 much more on that move coming up very shortly more? at morgan stanley, a global collective of thought leaders offers investors a broader view.
♪ we see companies protecting the bottom line by putting people first. we see a bright future, still hungry for the ingenuity of those ready for the next challenge. today, we are translating decades of experience into strategies for the road ahead. we are morgan stanley. we started by making the cloud easier to manage. but we didn't stop there. we made a cloud flexible enough to adapt to any size business. no matter what it does, or how it changes. and we kept going. so you only pay for what you use. because at dell technologies, we stop...at nothing. ♪ becaubefore money, peopleies, wtools, cattle, grain, even shells represented value. then currency came along. they made it out of copper, gold, silver, wampum.
shares up 22% this afternoon and franklin resources, the company behind franklin templeton and legg mason they came in 12 cents below estimates, ending the quarter with $1.4 trillion in aum. and mission produce is the of a cad oaf numb -- avocado maker. up just under 4% >> we have a very middling objection. it looks like many of the maturities crept up and were giving some back if you zoom that month to date to year to date, the truth emerges, flat line the range we've been in is around 13 basis points
we've been here for a long time. i don't suspect it's going to have a significant more volatility any time soon look at three sessions of 30-year bonds. they have given a lot back just like ten-years have. if you look at a month to date at our tenure on top of tenure european boons, europe a little earlier but made us turn the corner let's look at the yield curves, three topped 69, 69 and the recent top at 70 looks like we've put in some highs for a while. >> thank you very much, rick santelli coming up on "power lunch," all the reasons bitcoin is soaring it's up over 13,600 right now. stay with us
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>> hi tyler. bitcoin is right back around where it was when it crashed in 2018 in the past week bitcoin added more than 19 merchandise to its market cap a few catalysts are driving the rally. square said it was adding $50 million worth of bitcoin to its balance sheet. we also had paul tudor jones on cnbc last week calling it the best inflation trade comparing it to an early investment in apple or google. brian kelly of bkcm highlighting something else interesting from the firm jp morgan's popular weekly report flows and liquidity featured bitcoin in the past two weeks. he says that could be a sign of more mainstream investor interest this year, its prices will be
closely correlated to u.s. equities the trend broke in october as stocks sold off this week. look at bitcoin. it's up 14%. oak back you >> what do you think is this move in bitcoin fragile, as we have seen it before? but i keep hearing more and more people talking about bitcoin and gold and these are respected reputable portfolio managers >> think of it heading into a election a lot of people think of it as a hedge. like paul tudor jones said against inflation. you also have the economy going digital. during covid even payment companies that did digital finance said they have seen the digital economy accelerating by thing like five years. if you take crypto seriously but think it is interesting now but it might take multiple years to get there. during digit . >> i was in tudor jones's class
at the university of virginia. what's the difference between him and me 8, 9 billion, you. >> get more air time. >> but he has done more for the university. >> he was in your class, ty. >> let's not forget that. it is a split market today the dow is lower the nasdaq is up half a percent. after the bell, microsoft reports results. r , ill get you ready for that fothe key things to watch and listen for when "power lunch" continues.
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a big week for big tech earnings with microsoft set to report after the bell today and apple, facebook, amazon and alphabet all reporting on thursday join us for the three biggest things to watch is john freeman. good to have you let's start with the number one thing you are looking for in the report today >> thank you the having me aside from the operating results metrics i am looking at one -- really, the growth of cloud, the how -- how cloud, they are shifting from on premise client service software to cloud subscription revenue, how rapidly that's acuring not just about azure but with microsoft 365, dynamics 365, which can
also drive revenue growth along with azure, which everyone pays attention to the x box coming in -- you know, it's shipping on november 11th so i am going object listening for all the commentary around the new x box. it's the first upgrade in eight years. i think it is -- it represents -- just looking at the specs, it represent a real -- a generational shift i think it is really you know going to represent a big jump in terms of how sort of realistic and immersive games are. if you look at a.r., augmented reality and virtual reality which are slipping into the mainstream, getting mainstream, those two things are strategic not just for the gaming but it is deskcally a new way of interfacing with software, with
the computer i think the x box, right s not just important for this quarter, which it is, and the next couple of quarters after the upgrade, but also more long term. >> yeah. so basically, of the three main things, one is cloud the second is x box. the third is an rpo, their remaining performance obligation. >> right >> it is basically their kind of bookings, the total amount of revenue that has been booked but not yet recognized it was up 23% year over year last quarter now you are looking for this this afternoon last a bit of disappointment in the cloud last quarter do you have lingering concerns about that. >> i honestly didn't think twashs ds it was disappointing relative whose expectations? you are going to see the highest growth metrics decelerate tharz customers are still -- if you remember, people were scrambling
trying to figure out what the ultimate economic of covid-19 was going to be. you know, i think that was definitely legit match also, azure is like -- like i said, it is one aspect of their cloud business microsoft 365 probably represent more revenue, obviously not growing as fast, but as they convert the legacy office users to cloud and get them to start paying thattierly or monthly subscription. >> $254 price target the stock is at 213 right now. we will let you go and get ready for that we appreciate night thank you for having me. >> john freeman. today the "wall street journal" made an interesting point, maybe it is unfair to investors that all of big tech report on thursday you have got give microsoft for at least letting the attention focus solely on them.
>> smart move once again from microsoft. as you point out, technology is doing well today as the nasdaq continues to stay in the green even as the dow is down about 170 points, s&p down about a fifth of a percent that's it for today, kelly >> yeah. we have got the big tech ceos on the hill tomorrow. lots happening in that space the next few days. thanks for watching "power lunch," "closing bell" picks things up right now. thank you kelly and tyler. welcome to "closing bell." i'm sarah huckabee sanders we are with wilfred frost stocks trickling mostly lower today though there are pockets of strength beneath the surface. the major amples are mixed as we head into the final hour of dade with the nasdaq by far the best performer. what's driving the action right now. earnings season picks up steam, dow components, 3m and caterpillar are in the red despite report