tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC September 10, 2020 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
>> thanks so much. dow session high was up 254. we lost a lot of that. it did get to break even for the week nasdaq remains the best two day gains since the end of june. we'll get peleton and maybe some news on tiktok headlines crossing at the white house. al michaels with the judge let's get to the half. thanks so much welcome to "the halftime report." what now as tech tries to bounce from fastest correction on record is it safe to go back into the water yet? we'll debate that critical question yet jenny, the ceo. >> the principal question most people want to know is it time
to buy the dip should you hold onto what you have in terms of technology or should you get out of some of names you have ridden up or wondering what to do i ask you through the prism of selling slack on august 25th and then adding to crowd strike this week and what that says about how you view that question >> one of my favorite sayings about being a market participant is if you don't know who you are, the stock market is a very expensive place the find out i know who i am. it's taken me a long time to get here i understand the way that my mind works in both bull markets and bear and bear markets. i understand the things i have to correct for the biases i have to overcome. i can't get rid of them. people don't really change they get smarter but they don't change there's two ways tho think abou
your question. here is a stock that's $400 chair. down 18% from a recent high. you watch it the whole way up kicking yourself that you don't own it one of the hardest hit names a of the last week or so, if you're type of investor that's looking for that bargain in a stock that you always wish you owned, this is way the take advantage of that and buy in and the bounce today is pretty healthy. there are other types of investors and those are the investors that say don't tell me what got killed the most tell me what didn't budge. i want to know that when the nasdaq is down 1,000 point, i want to know which stocks. nobody sold them people so bullish o isish on a , they are willing to look past the volatility stand and buy and not even at a discount that's what brings me to crowd strike >> it's not like it didn't go
down it was down double digit percent. >> i hope you didn't use the restroom or blink your eyes or try to catch an episode of el visi -- television because you missed it. i'm looking at stocks that aren't been sold i want to know where the real buying power is. you have to noi who you are and the fact you are that type of
investor and trader and you have to live with it. that's where i'm coming from >> i appreciate the explanation. strategies don't always work sometimes you're a prisoner to the way the market moves and you have to adapt whatever your strategy is and then you work with that. jon, you've been buying new tesla calls this week. tesla is one of these names that got obliterated in the three-day sell off this fastest correction in the nasdaq on record record high down to a 10% pull back what does that say about your view of the market right here? >> to me, did it deserve to be over 500 i don't really think so. obviously, they thought it was high enough that they raise another $5 billion at that level through some rather unique way of offering their shares i was shocked as you are that
the krek was correction was so and so fast not to boar retoo much from a vuniversal theme. they traded down i thought that was wash out from over 525 on the highs just a week ago yes, when i saw them coming back and them being institutional paper, i bought in there another one, draft kings, scott. this one just crazy. a little over a week ago, some firm downgraded them, downgraded pen and you were able to pick up shares at 34 bucks share today, it's $10 higher than that we're not talking about a high flying tech stock or a stock that you don't know is a car company or is it a tech company, a battery company like tesla we're talking about draft kings. that thing got slammed down there. knowing who you are, who i am is a person that wants to take
advantage of fear. i feast on fear. i'm like a shark in that regard, scott. i love to smell that blood in the water and jump in there and buy. i saw that in draft kings. i saw that in tesla. i think you see it in a number of the tech names that have made very sharp v shape rebounds several times this year. not just in march but very recently and that's what i love to see >> based on what you're doing and some other things you're seeing, do you have a feel on whether you think that the correction that we have witnessed in the nasdaq specifically is over or is there more room to go, do you think? >> there could be more room. the reaction yesterday -- >> forgive me for throws it the way i did. i'm not talking down 1, 2, 3%. i'm talking a more substantial correction that may need to be
witnessed. i'm asking you whether you think it is or not i have no opinion on it. >> okay. my opinion is that a lot of the stocks that are at the core of my portfolio right now stocks like apple when i saw that they ordered 72 million handsets that's alleged the order they put in reported by a number of the apple tracking sites 72 million handsets for the new iphone 12. i think when you get a correction from 138 down to the teens in apple that represents an opportunity and there's not a lot of downside from that level. to answer your question, i don't know that it means that we have to see a much broader tech sell off. i do think tech continues to out perform the so called value stocks i'm not afraid to be in some of those stocks if the price is right. >> the other issue to deal with is whether you think we'll be in
a more unsettled vierm now at least up until and perhaps through the election >> right i don't see any way we won't be in a more settle environment there's so many questions out here for the last three or four week, i've just gotten whipped sawed with client conversations on both ends of the extreme terrified that biden will win. terrified that trump will win. some in the middle i think that will lead to bum bumpiness with the nasdaq being done correcting or still up 25% on the year even after what happened last week that's a lot the valuations are stretched not many but many are very stretched. i couple that with the fact we don't have vaccine yet we don't know what the real economic impact is what the real fall out will be from this pandemic we're just going to start to figure that out. value weighs are stretched i don't see any path to it not being a bumpy ride
i don't think bumpy is bad could create something healthy there's no way it will be smooth sailing. >> jim you have 12% cash what do you anticipate in the days, if not weeks ahead for the market specifically tech. >> i'm going talk about it from a stock pickers perspective. i think everybody gave a great st strategic overview first off in large cap tech, just take apple, i think apple is perfectly safe. 30 times forward multiples in a 0.7% ten-year treasury world, i don't blink an eye at that where i think there's some air pockets that may form are the new economy stocks that are great companies but that are up
six fold in the case of zoom or five fold in the case of tesla valuations are not just unseen they are obscene those are susceptible to profit taking in terms of where i would put money to work, as you see maybe some money coming out of those high flyers, it's not just the apples, the googles. it's maybe the nvidias of the world. i did add to visa last week and i got my eye on sales force. on the other side of the equation, i think you still have to stay away from energy and financials even though i own some of them, it's hard to make compelling case where it is easy is the industrials. i don't know if anybody missed this but the industrials are on fire you look at companies like caterpillar breaking out it's at a 52-week high general motor, forget where the price is the underlying fundamentals of car sales and car pries are terrific you can look at industrials for opportunities if you don't want
the stay in tech >> i know you're thinking a lot about this now, we know you sold slack. if i recall, you no longer own zoom am i right about that? >> i took my original costs. my original cost average was in the 70s pre-pandemic i have the house's money on the line i don't recommends that i ves r investors i veinvest that way. zoom was a trade for me. i wanted my principal back out but i'm there. >> not in the way you were before what about teledoc >> actually more if you buy a stock at 70 and it goes to 300 and you take off the original cost, the shares you are left with are more than what you starred with i'm still there. it matters to me >> what about teladoc? >> no position don't own it >> you did have a position, right?
>> yeah. check this out i will only -- >> you understand where i'm going with this, right >> totally i will only personally put on concentrated positions with stocks of beta 1.7, high momentum, high ok octane stock, i will only handle a few at a time you will never see a homie like me with 12 of these things ricochetting off the wall. i've been in many of these high octane names i can't be in all of them at once i don't believe that five years from now, any of them will be in the conversation they're not all going to turn into google and apple. i hope people understand that. you can't fall in love with your stocks because they dispyre all
the -- disappear all the time. i'm in zoom. i can't own them all it's too much. i'm 43 years old i have other things i'm focused on >> i think we're all trying to figure out what to own, whatnot to own where we are and where we may be going. the nasdaq is in ominous company. >> we had coming off the highs, a three-day decline and nasdaq 100 of minus 8% after hitting a 52-week high we have only seen that set up five other times back in 1985. three were in early 2000 one was in november of '07 and
one was in february of 2020. i think what's notable those are some ominous dates i think if we had to draw any type of analogy, it would be the 2000 time frame. in fact, this is what is lost on a lot of people, from march of 2000 through the end of the year, there were four sectors that were up 40% take it step further there's an index that's a reverse cap weight index where the smallest kp companies in the s&p is given the most weight.
there's some extreme analogies that are very analogous to some bubble-like periods. that doesn't mean the overall market has to be a concern some of the names like the coffee names, dunkin bucks starbucks, mcdonald's, the home builders >> you're not suggesting the nasdaq couldn't have more room to go to the downside. throw out some ominous dates it's like five dates and everybody knows what happened around all of those instances.
it's more concentrated six names represent about half the index. we do think there's some downside risk. we're still 21% above the moving average. outside of the july/august move of this year, that's still one of the most extreme spread versus 200 we have seen in last 30 years we think there's risk in those big megacap names but like we have seen throughout other times in history, there are plenty of over names below the surface that can do well despite those maybe seeing some profit taking. it's not like it was in '07 where a lot of sectors continue and there's really no place the hide we think it's more like that late '90s period where certain areas of the market got a little
extended but there's others that can be played for the long side. sdplp not the minimize it, this is basic area of the market you're suggesting may be over extended >> that is a good point. it's going to be almost impossible for the s&p 500 to make meaningful upside progress. the average stock may be flat the hire jenny, you hear what jonathan is saying, he's not the only one. if you have large upset, it's
going to be awfully hard to keep those winds from blowing a lot of other stocks over >> maybe the point he made at the end was critical is the stocks could have positive returns. that is exactly what we saw in 2000 the high growth trade collapsed, the value part did really well you could have a lot of winners out there. be carriful of falling in love because some stocks will disappear. i think that's true. i think there's a tremendous amount of stocks out there that won't disappear. it has significant cash flows that's been lost in the shuffle of our love affair of growth at any price. we have been ignoring the fact that those guys don't have earnings those with earnings and those with cash flows could start to
actually jonathan's point about the rest of market making up for the top part that backs off. >> josh, time to worry the storm clouds getting a little too ominous now or what >> i just go back to this idea that the way you orient a port kno -- portfolio around a realistic view what do you do for a living. i own an orthodontist practice really and you're trading on technica technicals you prop the phone up to the patient's mouth. that's an investment stra that requires constant monitoring if you're the kind of investor
who is setting up dividend reinvestment portfolios and buying a lot of the jenny stocks, i love those stocks. that requires much less. forgo forget about ominous storm clouds those five dates is out of 100 years of market history. it's not a really big sample size it's a sample within a sample that's not that big. give me 1,000 years of market data and i'll tell you >> when you say and jonathan, i'll give you a chance to respond. >> i was on a huge roll here, judge. >> which is why i had to jump in when i did >> krinsky goes onto say -- it's not insignificant data we have only seen it lose 8% or more over three sessions immediately following a 52-week high five other times.
you don't need to have 100 years worth of history to have the instances that he sites. jonathan, i'll hand the ball the you. you run with it now. >> the push back, you could have made a lot of extreme cases at any point in august. we have been talking about how stretched the nasdaq was you could have said it's different this time. interest rates are different, et cetera the reality is it was different this time but we still lost almost the entire month of gains in august if three days. that just shows you the power these names have to josh's point, it is a small sample size. we're not saying that's going to happen we are going to say when you see something that can lose a month of gapes in three days, that tells you it's not this safety trade that we think a lot of people perceive. they do is risk. we're still 20% above the 200-day outside of the last month and a half, would still be
one of the most extreme stretches we had in 30 years >> it may be the alarm bells may not be lost around the big five or faang or the largest megacap names in the lights. maybe the alarm bells are going off. maybe some of this new money has flooded into how much robinhood money was flow sboog ting into the megacas >> it's probably not new money it's probably margins and options level.
>> even worse. even worse >> if you're being reasonable and honest with yourself, you're saying yes these stocks let's say 50 to 100 stocks that we talk about relentlessly had been incredibly stretched into the end of august. let's all concede that nobody would argue otherwise many of them had been incredibly stretched in july in june, in may and this idea of losing a month's worth of stock market performance in three days, we lost almost two years worth of stock market performance in 16 days in moarch and april these stocks came ripping back i don't know that's the type of market action that we want to say has a cause effect on what happens next last thing one pr unprecedented stuff happens all the time >> this time was different from march and april. we pulled back in the magnitude
over those 16 days because we had a once in 100-year event inflict the economy, the market, health care. >> krinsky, tell scott what the ten-year treasury was yielding back in 2000 those ominous dates you're talking about. what were you able to get on a yield if you sold out of your stocks back in may of 2000 >> josh, that's my point if i came to you last week and said the nasdaq is about to do something that it's only done in 2000, you could say you can't do that because interest rates are different. that's my point. one of the the things i'll say, the pull back and snack bap bac march was coming from apple below it's 200-day moving average. this is not saying the end of the run by any means it's saying think of the risk in some of these big megacap names
and don't be surprised if some of the middle ground stocks that don't get talked about as much actually out perform in the coming months. >> we'll see where the none goes >> i agree with all of that. s >> jonathan, we'll talk to you soon there's tom lee with an opinion on the market. most of them have been right today he's saying fed put equals buy the dip. we must still by the dip he also thinks there's better risk reward in the epicenter stocks as he's made that case numerous times and in print. that works only if you have money that comes out of tech and goes into cyclical stocks. let's take a quick break >> that's not exactly true >> quickly >> there's been tremendous in
flows into bond. it's just huge it's been like hundreds of billions of dollars this year. that's money that can and should come out from low yield insecurities into the stock market as it corrects. >> okay. >> good point. >> we will take that quick break. a historic day on the street citi naming its first female ceo. it's the first time a woman will become head of a major u.s. bank it's big deal. we'll talk about that. debate the financial next on the half we're back after this.
welcome back let's get the headlines now with sue. >> here is what's happening at this hour. senators mitch mcconnell and chuck schumer trading bars ahead of a vote on covid-19. it's a relief bill that mcconnell is saying that democrats should stop hiding and help the american people schumer says the republicans delayed relief for months and offering a bill with no input for the democrats. in georgia a fugitive wante for shooting two people.
she's stepped down effective immediately. the move comes after backlash. developing stories we'll keep an eye on it. back to you. let's talk about some of the moves you're making. what's going on? >> scott, i exited sonos just did because the thing hasn't been moving and some of the calls i was long in there were shrinking i said, i'll hit the exits took some profits on amd that we did for unusual activity. i was long calls and short puts. this one rallied significantly we had a nice trade yesterday, scott in one of josh brown's favorite stocks. shake shack. at the money calls yesterday the
67s that expired tomorrow, friday the 11th. those calls accumulated in big money yesterday. they went $5 trading from 67 to 72 and change most dated within the next 30 days some of in days as in two days until tomorrow's expiration. >> sounds like we'll have a debate for a moment on shake shack. >> i think you're calling shake shack too early to make that move >> i was just teasing the shark. i don't want to get too cloese t the shark. >> josh, you've made the case. >> it's options.
he's doing options >> he's defining his risk. >> the difference for me and jon. i can sit forever and can be right. jon is leaking gamma and th eet out of his ears. he's got to make a move. >> i hear you. the thesis is different. i get that jon is doing this for a trade but maybe you're more optimistic about what you think shake shake's exploits are going forward even at a time where josh, you've been a little more cautious on that name due to the pandemic and more some of the obvious reasons you stated.
>> i give josh full credit i mean, he's been a bird dog on this name just like jim has been on roku and jenny has been on numerous stocks. >> jim doesn't own roku anymore. >> i know. he was a bird dog. he was in there. >> i do too. >> you missed it >> you were on vacation. i tweeted at you but come to think at it, i saw no response >> i don't know how much i looked at twitter when on vacation >> i can't blame you >> it's a trade. i'm not trying to value it people need their tvs. it's going to come with roku unless you're a dinosaur
>> i feel like you're talking out of both sides of your mouth. it's been a good stay at home play you made the case throughout the pandemic at various points not just one point various points exactly what you just said. >> i said i'm not trading ill anymore. i said i'm changing my tune. i'm mablgi inmaik maiking the te it's under performed any of the stocks it's got some catch up to do times change you have to change with them >> okay. >> what? i'm not allowed to change my mind >> you are >> you are allowed to change
your mind. you know, when you make -- when you make the case that you trade in and out of this name and you say on the air i'm done with this thing because i can't value it and now you're back into it saying i can't value it. >> i never could value this was never a valuation gain. never. >> tone of the singular reason you said that you were done with it was because you couldn't value it and you weren't going to play that game anymore. i never have said you could value this thing
that's the trade valuation has never come into this it's relatively new. >> all right next, the big etfs to watch today and today at 2:00. cnbc inclusion in action form examines how business leaders with take immediate concrete action addressing racial disparities in organizations and create sustainable solutions to allow for equity and opportunity for all. program and partnership with the executive leadership counsel the event features conversations with carnival. you can register at cnbcevents.com/inluclusio cnbcevents.com/inclusion we made usaa insurance for veterans like liz and mike. an army family who is always at the ready.
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we're back tech is hanging in there after a few rough days of trading. let's get to bob with our etf edge today hey, bob >> hello the sell off at internet cloud computing and software stocks really only lasted for about three days while the volumes are on the light side, we're starting to see some buying interest let's talk about it with our guest tom light.
tom, looking at the software etf symbol xsw you can't keep square, zoom, sales force and docusign down. it's a little choppy today >> two-thirds of the gdp is based on small businesses that are changing what's going on they are embracing technology. they will embracing software and p/e are going through the roof the tech sector itself is about 31 times but many components here triple digits on their p/e and many don't show earnings the average entrepreneur that has had to embrace tell menolchi not heading back any time soon >> same pattern here with online retailers. down several days in a row attempts the buy it here
we have wayfair, peleton, carvana, etsy, overstock trying to make it but they are choppy here in the day. >> earnings will prevent it from having a real dip. a real true dip. these companies have earnings. we p not all good tech and online is in the u.s 15% of the total index in those four names that you just mentioned. it's pretty diversified with 50 names. it has momentum. about $850 million in assets >> yeah. big thing is the market really having a tough time figuring out the right multiple for these software and other tech stock. we're getting starting here at etf edge. head over to our website for tesla s&p 500 snub what does that mean in our conversation with eric ries. the noundsfounder of long term k
we are back and so thankfully is the nfl. the season kicking off tonight in kansas city super bowl mvp patrick mahomes. al, it's great to see you and it will be great to hear your voice tonight. >> you know this is my favorite show nobody watches more cnbc than i do if you would have said to me two months ago would we be starting on september 25th, i would have said about a 25% chance. so far, so good. hopefully we get started on time >> you'll have some fans in
attendance this evening. i'm wondering, aside from no collins worth slide into the picture, we'll have to get used to that but what's it going to be like for you, do you think? and our viewers? >> lit be a little different they will put 22% of capacity into arrow head stadium. that's somewhere around 17,000 fans the only other stadium that will have fans this weekend is jacksonville you'll have 14 stadiums without fans it will be different but i have a feeling it will sound somewhat similar. we are going to enchance the audio as the nba and the nhl have done in other games but not tonight. we'll let the natural sound play
i'm curious to see what the quality of play will be like no team has done it. houston trying to get over the hump we're set for a big night. >> no pre-season games that speaks to what you're saying about the quality of plays i know you guys normally meet with some of the stand out players before the game. maybe the day before the coaching staff, et cetera. have you been able to do that this time and i'm wondering if you have a sense at all of what the players may be feeling or thinking before they begin this journey. >> we are like the rest of businesses we're doing it zoom, microsoft teams. the texans are here in our hotel but we can't meet with them. they were in a room separate from ours. we sat there socially distant and had our zoom meetings with them it's worked out okay
you do miss the person to person interaction. for the most part we're doing it on the fly right now and kudos to our whole production crew we have people working remotely. we have never done this before >> you want to talk some stocks? we got josh with us. >> i know you've got josh. all i can tell you is i may be the kiss of death. i go to our meeting about two hours ago. the market is flying now i'm looking at what's going on by the way, judge, i want to let you know, let me lean toward here for a second. talk about football weather. hold on. i want you to see what the weather is like in kansas right now. can you see that gloomy >> it's gloomy 65 degrees it's rainy and the traffic the moving clearly and fast on i-70. traffic and weather together on the fives. full service >> we appreciate that.
what stock is top of mind for you? >> the stock i've loved for the last couple of years is kkr. it's done extremely well i got to know george roberts i have a great deal of respect for him. that's been fine some of the etfs on steroids have been pretty good. the sfo has been fantastic the financials i'm basically listening to you guys i listen to jon talk about the hot options trades to make i just follow in the path of the experts on your panel. >> we appreciate it. al, we cannot wait for tonight we're all so excited to be able to see and hear you and chris an get this season under way. i know a lot of us were like you. wondering if we would be at this day. >> here we are happy new year >> exactly be well. see you soon
al michaels. >> you too >> we'll catch you tonight coverage begins tonight at 7:00 eastern lyon on nbc. we're back in two minutes. , it e i'm just wasting time. that's why td ameritrade designed a first-of-its-kind, personalized education center. oh. their award-winning content is tailored to fit your investing goals and interests. and it learns with you, so as you become smarter, so do its recommendations. so it's like my streaming service. well except now you're binge learning. see how you can become a smarter investor with a personalized education from td ameritrade. visit tdameritrade.com/learn ♪ everything we have, we've earned. the unmistakable lexus is. get zero percent financing on the 2020 is 300. experience amazing at your lexus dealer.
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hey, rahel. >> let's start with adobe. you can see the stock is up about 1.3% wedbush says bed bath and beyond is in a -- the stock, however, still has a long way to go, down about 30% this year and then take a look at shares of r.h., up 23%, hitting a new all-sometime high after smashing earnings estimates telsey upgrading the stock the target here goes to $450, by the way the ceo of rh will join
jim cramer today on "mad money." jenny, you would rather own sherwin-williams, though i know you wish you owned rh today. >> i do wish i owned rh today, but i love the companies that pump out super-consistent cash flow and you don't have any worry about the fickle emotional response of people and what they'll do at any one time you always need to paint your walls. you may or may not be inspired to decorate your home. our next guest says more gains are coming jeff, where is it good >> i think it's going higher it cooled off a bit here and now i want a buy on the december silver futures with a target, scott, of 2850. i'm being mindful, i want to put a stop at 26.75, so risking $2500 to make $62.50
you know wise precious metals are being bought, right? we have the weaker dollar, fed policy i want to talk technicals. we actually own silver, because the technical strength is on its way to revisit the high and put it on august 7th of $30. >> good stuff. see you soon, jeff final trades after this quick final trades after this quick break.
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known as coach, they're buying the sep 15 calls, they expire next friday, paying about 50 to 60 cents for those second trade they run a brunch of brand, that is capri. also september expiration they're buying the 1850 calls, which are in the money i'm in both of these and i'll probably be out by the middle to tail end of next week, scott. >> good stuff. a final trade as well, doc >> sure. plug, this one is just seeing explosive volume right now in the september 13th calls i bought those. >> good triple from you there. jim lebenthal, what do you have for us today >> citigroup named a new ceo it's a woman this is a great idea there needs to be a lout of
outreach to citizen. >> congrat to jane. in honor of nfl returning, viacom cbs i bought it in may. >> josh brown, quickly from you. >> verizon, 4% yield, sting long. good stuff thanks, everybody, "the exchange" starts neo the markets are struggling today, but we're down 122 right now on the dow goldman just out with a big call on q3 gdp. plus from walmart to movie theaters to home depot, we're going to talk with the ceo of one of the country's biggest real state landlords. >>