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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Open  Bloomberg  March 25, 2021 3:00am-5:00am EDT

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anna: good morning. welcome to that european open. i am anna edwards. mark joins us in singapore to take us through the market action. the cash trade is less than an hour away. here are your top headlines. the eu and you kate signal a thawing of relations over vaccine sharing u.k. leaders discuss the rollout. powell play down the recent rise
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in yields. they xl after a five-year auction goes off without a hitch. still stuck in the suez, it continues to paralyze traffic. good morning everyone. mark is with us from singapore. what other market saying to you? mark: good morning. a very exciting morning in asia. we are distracted by the latest developments on the canal. it looks like a rick's adverse morning -- it looks like a risk adverse morning. i know that oil prices are quite soft despite the blockage in the canal. that is not a great sign. anna: they are down. we will get more on that and talk more about the canal. just under an hour away from the
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start of trading in europe. let's take a look at futures and this is what the picture looks like for us. in good company we see european equity markets broadly, a little bit weaker. we see u.s. features looking modestly to the upside. it will be on the flatline here. yesterday, we started our day, u.s. tech selling off and down more than 2%. when things start to look a bit more like 2021, once again. when it comes to gmm and what you are seeing to the asian session, what are you seeing? mark: i think there are two things to draw attention to. we are seeing a little bit of commodity weakness that i mentioned. if you look on the screen on the fourth column you can see the broad commodity weakness.
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it is heating oil on the top of that list. we are seeing equity weakness. overall, it has been a softer session in asia. i know futures are ok in asia. i know u.s. futures are higher. anna: you mentioned earlier what is going on in the suez, trying to communicate the size of this vast vessel is difficult. no hiding the fact that 12% of global trade goes through this canal and the longer it takes to clear it, the more disruption we risk to our supply chain environment that was not great ship anyway -- great shape anyway. mark: that is a massive cites the story. because of the pandemic there was a shortage of semi conductors and now we have the canal block. it is a situation we have not seen for a long time. one of the things i find most interesting, i see some people
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going, it will not be weeks, and other people saying it will be days, don't worry. i think people do not know what the expectation is. some people expect it done in 24 hours, other people saying sunday, monday, other people say two weeks. if it gets cleared up today it will be an anticlimax, if it goes into the weekend, we can be concerned. anna: after doing reading, i am listening out for the comments. apparently they have flown some people in an have plenty of experience when it comes to salvation stories that we have known and loved before. we will keep an eye on what that salvage team has to say and bring you pictures when we get them. the me ask you about the oil story. we touched on that with the suez , but that is not the whole story. we have seen volatility in oil
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prices, we were down 5% in tuesday session and then up 5% yesterday session. we have had more data on the supplies in the united states, what is going on with oil? mark: there is a lot of volatility. there are many issues. one is that we have a lot of capacity on the sidelines. they were hawkish at the start of the month and their meeting comes up next week. there is more focus than was. they are justified for holding back supply. there are also shell supply there on the sideline discern to pick up. supply is there, inventories are high, the demand story has been very positive. now that it has been hit by problems of lockdowns in europe around the virus, at the moment, there's still a lot of supply and the demand story is not as
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positive as people thought two weeks ago but it is still positive in the long-term. anna: we have another meeting in the next one is in april and a lot will beat the response from the supply side. let me ask you about the asian story supply-side. hong kong stocks are on this headline. in corrections, they are down 10%. there has been a sense that tencent, the earnings might support the market, but not quite so. mark: i think that was what a lot like -- it seemed like traders were hoping for tencent to save the day. the stock opened down quite painfully this morning. you did see the asian side trade negatively. however, they finished closer to even. there was a stronger session post lunch. i do not know why it rebounded.
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there were no actions from the so-called national team in china. it look like there was a sudden bump up some point mid morning that change the narrative. all the stories coming out from on short traders to traders in hong kong and singapore, they are increasingly negative on stocks in china and hong kong. that is the narrative to watch. anna: sentiment shift in asian equities. you can get all of the analysis and get up to date from marc's team. coming up, still stuck in the suez, we will keep an eye on the massive container ship that continues to paralyze $9.6 billion worth of traffic. we will get the latest. plus, grab your popcorn, yes to watch the market open, it also because we have the cineworld group ceo for us.
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what does the world's largest chain have in plans for reopening? that is coming. plus, powell plays down the risk of yields we discussed that and we will discuss with justin onuekwusi head of retail multi-asset funds at legal and general investment. if you have any questions, reject to us. this is bloomberg. ♪ -- if you have any questions, reach out to us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> in the near term we expect that there will be upward pressure on prices and there will be a technical thing of base affects as very low readings from april and march of last year drop. we do not expect that the upper pressure will produce substantially higher prices or that the effects will be
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persistent. we expect them to be transitory. anna: testifying before the banking committee. touching on the questions of the year. many will be on inflation on how high inflation will peak and how sustained it will be. mark: the fed thinks this will not be sustained. we will not know the answer for several months. it is april and make that we are expecting this scariness. we have another three months of the story playing out before we have any idea of how it will end. i think that is where that nervousness comes in. anna: let's get another perspective. justin onuekwusi, head of retail multi-asset funds at legal & general investment. we are looking at the rebound over recent months and the way that inflation is not playing
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ball. inflation is not catching up with the rebound story that we are seeing in the pmi's if they are a good measure of economic activity. what is it that you are looking at to guide at how high inflation gets? justin: this is the most evasive issue in our team at the moment. this is the biggest thing that we discussed. we have conviction that we will seen short-term bounds of inflation. we think medium-term they are still in a deflationary state that we saw pre-pandemic. similar to what powell said, the consensus around inflation, the market has had inflation around 8%.
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it has come up 8% lower than what the market anticipated. do we fully understand all the inflation dynamics overall? pretty low conviction, but we think in the medium-term, we are in a deflationary environment and i think that is reflected in our positioning overall. the market narrative could really drive expectations up. you could see the markets becoming more positive on inflation. that will drive the market further.
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have pressures. one argument that my colleagues has made is that one of the other changes is that we have underestimated growth for the last decade. since then, the pandemic last year, we keep on underestimating the numbers that are coming in. we keep on reviving our forecast. maybe there is a shift with the amount of money put in. maybe we have inflation wrong but we are going to get it wrong in a fears. what would you say as a rebuttal to that? justin: that is the key reason we have to be humble. there is the growth perspective, but we have already seen this surgeon supply once -- this surge in supply after the second world war. cash now as a financial share of assets is at its height since 19 629.
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this is all food for thought. overall, our view given the increasing technology in our economy, we do seek inflationary forces will play over the medium-term and that will eventually feed into an inflation expectation. anna: do you think if inflation is going to remain under control, we have always deflationary forces, what assumptions are you making about the extent to which the large amount of fiscal stimulus we will see in the u.s., whether that will lead to overheating in the u.s. economy? what is the assessment there? justin: we are positive on risk asset, that is driven by where we are in the cycle. we are early on in the economic cycle. the fiscal policy that we are seeing and that monetary stimulus is going to have a positive effect on risk assets
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overall. valuations are expensive. there are pockets in the equity market where you are shortly -- slightly overvalued. you have bonds and other assets and the relative valuations of the fixed income. i think we would agree it is in favor towards equity. positive on risk over the medium-term. over the short term, we have concerns. mark: speaking of overvalued equity sectors, you have been long on tech which has worked well, how nervous are you getting on that position? justin: we still think low debt over earnings will come through and justify valuations that we are seeing. unfortunately, we are concerned about the concentration risk in the u.s. market and does last
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stocks having a more significant impact on the u.s. equity market. that will feed into sentiment, it is difficult to argue that given the stock concentration issue, the u.s. equity market is a more risky investment than it was 5-10 years ago when you had lower stock concentration. we do have a barbell approach as well. we also like some of these reopening trades, travel and leisure. we see the value side as well. anna: making the most of both of those themes. the me ask you about retail investment phenomenon. we talk about it a lot in the u.s. with a gamestop phenomenon and read it, it was easy to
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that. i wonder much retail investment you are seeing here in the u.k. are we seeing a role pick up in the amount of interest from those driven, because they have more time on their hands, and the stock market? justin: the u.k. households have 150 5 billion pounds on their balance sheet. a very similar theme, not to the extent of the u.s., but we are seeing a similar phenomenon. one platform said they sought two times more driven trade in 2020 than they saw in 2019. you are seeing this trend towards retail investors becoming more engaged markets overall. i think in the medium-term, what will happen as we see markets volatility, more of these investors will start to seek financial advice. in the u.s. as well, it is
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pretty strong. actually having financial advice is really quite important. it is available more easily through technology goal -- through technological advances. anna: thank you for joining us. justin onuekwusi head of retail at legal & general investment. let's get a bloomberg first word update. laura: astrazeneca has updated the result of the trial, lowering the efficacy slightly after criticism previous numbers were outdated. it shows that the shots were 76% effective. it is just below that 79% it announced the other day. this latest twist as to questions of when it will be approved in the u.s. antony blinken says they will not ask their allies to choose between the united states and beijing. that will not be an us versus
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them mentality. blinken wants to outcompete china relying on innovation not ultimatums. north korea has fired its first ballistic missiles in that you -- in the year. japan and south korea confirm that move saying it landed in the sea between the korean peninsula and japan. the u.s. says it is monitoring the situation. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. anna: thank you very much. coming up on the program, the race to unlock the suez canal continues. the ship is still stuck in the waterway as an elite squad is due to join the efforts. all the details next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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anna: welcome back. 22 minutes, a little over 40 minutes until the start of the session. lending support to the japanese equity markets. mark: i'm not sure he said anything for to fit -- particularly profound. it seems to boost the market. a slightly weaker market this morning. the rally in japanese stock did come after he spoke. he can get the credit, even though i'm not sure why did. anna: authorities are scrambling to dislodge a massive container ships such in the -- stuck in the waterway. work will resume when in the elite salvage squad is due to arrive on the scene. the best chance of freeing it
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might not come until sunday. joining us now is our middle east reporter. thank you for joining us. how long can it take them to move that ship which is blocking a waterway so important people have been fighting over it since 1869? >> unfortunately the problem is that no one knows. there have been several attempts since it ran underground overall two days ago. really, it depends on the outcome of the initial underwater assessment, it is the first step that the international team will carry out. they have been flown in from several different sites. the first job they will have is to determine how far the ship is stuck. mark: once they were cap how stuck it is what will they do
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with the elite team? we have been excited that they will parachuted. >> i think they got busted in. --bussed in. they will carry on with similar work, but the egyptian authorities say they have more experience and will use tugboats to pull it out. they have several tugboats out of there and they can also charter some other ones. the other thing is lightening the load, that often helps when trying to reflow a vessel. it is pretty easy to take off the balance of the fuel, but if that is not helping to shift the vessel, they are going to have to result to the worst case scenario which is taking the containers off one by one. that could be tricky. anna: how can they fly those off one by one by helicopter? what a fascinating story.
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that was our middle east reporter from dubai. we are dealing with a supply chain that is already struggling. one producer saying the issues of the container industry might be about to spill in to the great bulk market as well. they are still recovering from 2020. mark: i hear there are threats to the toilet paper supply chain again. we thought it was a pandemic story. i am worried we are going to have so many people rushing to the shops to stockpile again. we are only coming to grips with that problem with the semi conductors. causing an upward pressure on inflation and it will be a noticeable drive on growth this is a full new element we need to get to grips with. anna: coming up on the program, we will be talking about something very different. the return to the big screen. we are keeping our fingers crossed. we speak to the cineworld group
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ceo about plans to reopen and film premieres. what are we going to have in the months ahead? this is bloomberg. ♪
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anna: welcome back. half an hour until the trading session. treading looks like it will be on the back foot. mark, let's take a moment to think about the drive of inflation. we started with our guest talking about inflation and his views on it. you have been making the point over the last 24 hours that oil is crucial to where you think inflation is going to head. the oil prices are going to be stunning because we went negative briefly. what are your arguments around the link between oil and inflation? mark: you are right.
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the comparables of the laughter will be stunning. oil prices were negative, that makes it easier to have notable gains. in april and may we are expecting this to be high. as our first guest headlight, will we get sustainable inflation or not? core inflation, inflation excluding energy prices is basically near the lowest level in the decade. it is at 1.3%. that is the base of where we are coming from. if you assume oil prices will treat heavily, which they seem to be doing, if you think oil prices may have further to fall, this threat of sustainable inflation looks almost impossible. suddenly i am moving more into the fed count. what i'm saying is that the whole of inflation debate will come down to where oil prices will trade. if oil prices sink, i think core inflation will not come topside. if oil prices find their
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strength and go back towards the highs, then we may have this debate more seriously in may or june. anna: clearly, all prices have always mattered to the inflation story. i wonder how much they continue to matter. probably a lot. like they have in other periods where we have been concerned about inflation. we saw that yesterday with a u.k. number about how we can overestimate how high inflation will go. that supports your argument. i am looking yesterday at u.s. services pmi, that increases to the highest reading since the series began. admittedly, i do not know when it began, but that sounded like an impressive headline if you are looking for places where we might see inflation. mark: yes, there are signs from the supply side but we are seeing inflation pressures. we talked about some supply chain disruption earlier.
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we have seen in those purchasing manager surveys, we are seeing prices moving up, chinese mpi moving up. for sustainable inflation, we need inflation to generate its own self-serving spiral. we need expections to run away. we need expectations that are driven by the consumer feels. it comes back down to oil. if oil prices are trading heavily it will be hard to generate sustainable inflation. anna: let's pause on inflation and get up today on corporate stories. denmark, with a business is laura wright. laura: securities and exchange reported an inquiry into the spac frenzy gripping wall street. a key concern may be the risk of insider trading when a black -- blank check comes in and when it announces its target. they are asking for voluntary
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information and is not a formal investigation. the leaders of the biggest social media companies are at odds over who is response will for policing online content. those slated to appear, facebook smart zuckerberg support the shield but googles are adverse to any changes. british retail has a long way to go when it comes to increasing diversity of leadership. industry reports fewer than 10% of co and the industries are women. fewer than 6% of executives have black or ethnic minority representation. that is the bloomberg business flash. anna: thank you. with the chronic virus upending -- coronavirus upending cinema, they have been extremity with new release strategies. disney says two new movies will be on disney plus at the same time big move theaters. a blow to the theaters.
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cineworld will expect reopening in april. what will reopening look like and one will move yours return? -- when will moviegoers return? let's talk with mooky greidinger , ceo of cineworld. let's start with the balance sheet. you secured commitments from various investors and a convertible bond and use say you have liquidity one way to the end of the year in the event that cineworld remains close. do still have a worst-case scenario in the back of your mind that you might have to remain closed all year? is that still a possibility? greidinger: we will see our sales. our big guns are opening in the united states. our responsibility of management
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is rate to secure any development that might happen this year. if there is a year that taught anyone in the world, never say never, it is 2020. we are ready. we secured additional financing, but we are opening in april and we believe when we look at the vaccination situation in the u.s. and in the u.k. that business will be growing rapidly may, june, july. mark: good morning. will you have a mask mandate that goes beyond what the government demands or will people be able to go to the cinema without wearing a mask? greidinger: currently we keep the mask demands and we will follow what is happening around us. currently, we will keep mask demands and we feel it gives a good feeling of safety to our customers.
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our top priority is the safety of our customers and our team. we are going to continue with the similar rules that we developed. anna: you recently signed a deal with warner bros. that takes us to a new window, a shorter exclusivity window for cinema support will be theaters, is this a view of things to come? is how things will progress? will exclusivity windows get ever shorter from here? greidinger: i believe that the window is essential for the theatrical business, for the flow of the income of what we call the circle of life of the movie, it is important for studios and other cinema makers. this will be the new normal. there will be some bumps here and there. disney made the announcement
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yesterday, the deal with the others is different. it will take a little bit of time to settle everything, but at the end of the day, we will have a shorter window than the window we had before, but we will have theatrical exclusivity because this is the model that brings most of the money to both sides. mark: it is not going to be exclusive for everything, disney just announced yesterday that the "black widow," and "cruella" will release on the same day. how do you go about of the like that? greidinger: it is not something -- this is under the coronavirus situation. the studios are worried. i believe that the disney announcement is too extreme and we are analyzing the outcome and
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will decide what we are doing. on the other hand, also on disney and their announcements, they see a good value in theatrical exclusivity. whether it is now or september, we will wait and see. for sure, you will see the ethical exclusively coming back as the year goes -- there will be a new, normal in place for the industry. this industry that grossed $20 billion worldwide has not disappeared. look at the numbers now in china. biggest weekend ever in the chinese new year three weeks ago. look at japan.
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japan broke records with a new movie they released. people want to go back to the cinemas and they prefer to see the movie first on the big screen. anna: i know a lot of people just want to get out. they want to leave home and watch something that is not on the same so but they have sat on for the last year. are you going to have to operate under any capacity constraints in any of your locations or do you not know? can you tell us about how that impacts the profitability of the business? greidinger: the capacity restraints are varying from state to state in the united states, even sometimes in some counties. there are some restrictions and they are being lifted gradually. once we have 50% capacity, it is not the end of the world. it is not as good as 100%, but we have that in some places.
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vaccination is doing a good job everywhere. i am in israel so i can't really give good testimony to this. vaccination is working -- i can give really good testimony to this. vaccination is working. restrictions will be lifted. 75%, maybe even 100%. our main problem is to go back and our team had a really tough year and they were almost one year at home. i believe that stability will come back in a big way towards the end of the year. mark: as a cinema goer, i hope that is the case. 2019 was a record year, 2020 was a tough year, when we -- when will we get back to 2019 levels? greidinger: i want to say 2022,
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if we are still a bit behind in 2023 or sure. we need to remember that the world used to be 50-50, united states and international, today it is only 75% international and only 25% united states, not because they shrunk but because the international market grew and you're seeing huge amounts of money for the studios. in general, we are going to be back strong. we are investing in refurbishing cinemas and opening new sites. all things we did when we were committed, although we did not start projects this year, but we were on -- under commitment at all that is done. we will have a better commitment to customers and show them that
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the best way to watch a movie is on the big screen. anna: thank you so much for your time. good to speak to you even on this small screen. mooky greidinger, the ceo of cineworld. u.s. leaders will be joined by president joe biden that european leaders are holding later this evening. we will have more from what to expect from this conversations coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
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anna: welcome back. 15 minutes until the start of trading. futures are point to the downside. u.s. futures look a little more in the green. let's look at what we're watching out for. at 9:30 there is a summit about innovation. there will be multiple speakers.
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we will be listening for headlines. eu leaders will be virtually to discuss vaccine and policy and external relation. the summit kicks off at 12:00 p.m. and continues until tomorrow. we will get an update on what is on the agenda coming up. we also have the ceos from facebook, twitter and google testified before congress. lawmakers will ask questions about misinformation. that is that 4:00 p.m. london time. finally at 7:00 p.m., the bank of mexico publishes its latest decision. emerging market rates decision, something we talked about a lot. in the sense last week, mark, that things were not going the same way as developing markets. we are seeing rate hikes coming through in emerging world. mark: emerging markets central banks have been an exciting story. they have been overshadowed by
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what is happening from development banks. notably the fed. that is understandable. we have seen this very hawkish shift. all hiking rates more than expected. this week, we have mexico, who until two weeks ago expected to cut rates, now they are leaving rates unchanged it is an uncertain decision and that makes it exciting. we also have another bank decisions where they are expected to stay on hold but some people think they may hike again. emerging-market banks are exciting because they are leading this hawkish shift we are seeing globally. anna: i still to come. a lot of focus on those great decisions from mexico and south africa. let's focus on one of the other agenda items, the eu meeting taking place today. our reporter maria tadeo is there in brussels.
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relations between the eu and after's that ago, are we any closer to the u.k. and europe adding to some kind of happy place when it comes to vaccine rollout? maria: we are very thin on the detail. the two sides are very much disputing overproduction in the netherlands. there is a joint statement in the 20 -- and that tone is different. want to read it to you from the united kingdom and nation, they state there has got to be a win- win solution. it is now more important than ever. they stress the need to be a mutually beneficial solution to this. the language is totally different from 24 hours ago. the details are still very thin, but there has been a change in
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direction. a lot of this is going back to some of the concerns that were becoming obvious to the two sides. i would stress that the global supply chain is delicate and complex. when you start moving things around unilaterally that will create a domino effect that can be detrimental for everyone. yesterday, there was a collective realization on behalf of the u.k. and the european union that that was taking a big risk. a number of states were concerned about that unilateral moves and what they could trigger. the irish have a very close relationship with the united kingdom and jump are making vaccine on a global scale. they highlighted that they are concerned that more restrictions could trigger a domino effect that could be quite risky. mark: good morning. the key points to concentrate that there are not just two sides, biden is joining as well. what is the expectation in his involvement? maria: his joining in this call
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at 8:40 -- 8:45. what would have been a huge event is now a video conference. they want to use this to send message that this is the star of a new relationship, moving away from trump. we want to focus on the positive that is climate and the economy and trade. normally china or russia would have featured quite highly on the agenda, but this is happening in a video conference. there is concerns about potential hacking. that is not going to deter them that much. it shows you that under coronavirus, normal diplomacy is becoming very tricky. a lot of the conclusions and real negotiations happened not on the official agenda up on the sidelines. that is not possible now when you do this in a videoconference. anna: the sidelines are difficult to navigate. maria, thank you very much. maria tadeo joining us from
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brussels. that will be a late night for the team in brussels tracking that conversation as it unfolds. coming up, we get your stocks to watch including the airline sector as that you kate suggests it may impose borderline restrictions. -- as the u.k. suggests it may impose border restrictions. we will get that up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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anna: welcome back. let's get your stocks to watch. annemarie: i want to kick it off with oil and shipping, especially what is going on with suez. the ever give her keeps on giving. everything from oil to your
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television to livestock is step on some of the ships behind the ever giver. also big players, from sap dow jones, she says we can continue this price action movement until the ship finally gets ungrounded. that might not happen until sunday. potentially a headache going into the weekend. travel and leisure sector, this comes as the uk's prime minister suggests more restrictions when it comes to the border and european countries. this is because they do not want fresh variants coming into the u.k.. classic names, something i thought more eye-opening from the prime minister, also hinting that people could potentially need to show proof of vaccination to visit the pub. the question for me comes, is the government going to let the private sector designed what they do with vaccine task force?
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that might mean, no job, no beer. this is one to watch. anna: this is big news to follow, including me who are waiting for the vaccine. many people waiting for the vaccine. we will keep an i on all of those developments. and all of the stocks to watch. as we head into the start of trading, things seem quiet asia, but there is a lot going on. mark: it is looking quite calm. i do not think it will be a calm session for us today. there are many stories going on underneath the radar. none of them are driving markets too much. i think it will be a slight nervous section later. anna: we will keep our eyes firmly glued to the bloomberg and bloomberg tv screen. thank you for joining us for the past hour, mark. i will be back for the next hour to take us the market open. we will keep an eye on the big
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names. tech was a big focus, will that be the same again? we will cover all of that. this is bloomberg. ♪
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anna: welcome back. a minute ago to the start of thursday's cash equity trading session. the eu and u.k. signal a thawing of relations over vaccine sharing. fed chair jay powell plays down the recent rise in yields. the treasury market exhaled. still stuck in the suez. the massive container ship continued to paralyze on the crucial waterway. welcome to the program.
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european futures pointed to the downside. u.s. features look more positive. we are neither side of the flat lines. commentary from janet yellen and jay powell adding to our understanding of at least how the fed sees inflation expectations and how the u.s. treasury sees the rollout of stimulus efforts. so we start with the european equity session, expecting to see a retreat, moved to the downside. down 2% on the nasdaq. we start to the day with the 2020 tech preference and then moved into the 2021 dynamic. today we see european equity markets under pressure. spanish market down by 4/10 of 1%. a little bit of weakness coming
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through at the start of trade. ongoing focus on the slow pace of vaccine rollout and extended lockdowns continues to be a big theme for european equities. also very much and focus in the united states, fed chair jerome powell and janet -- treasury secretary janet yellen reminded it still has a long way to go in a second day of congressional testimony. joining us is ben. i wonder how much this is the big question for 2021 for you. if that means how high inflation goes. will it be a knee-jerk response to comparisons with april, is it just going to be that story that it's limited to or will it be an inflationary impulse this year? >> good morning. the inflationary question is a
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big one we are all wrestling with and we can be confident and see headline numbers will come through in the coming months, of the year of year affects we were last year. anna: we seem to have had a problem with the picture there, a little bit of a freeze. we will see if our technical team can help us to unstick ben's picture and if you can hear us, apologies, we will be back to shortly. also want to understand from him when he makes of european growth story and the threat to the general growth story. in the political u-turn we saw yesterday. we also have to make sense of what's going on in the united kingdom as well, of the extent to which we can see recovery ahead.
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talking about a roaring recovery. we've got european equity markets down by 6/10 of 1%, of the ftse 100 down. we are still attempting to reestablish a connection with ben for the moment. let's get a bloomberg business flash. here's laura with the latest. >> blackrock became the focus of a clash between janet yellen and senator elizabeth warren. warren wanted to know if it's been consider for the world's biggest asset manager. she responded the focus should be on risky activity, not individual companies. the leaders of the biggest social media company also who's responsible for policing online content. they are slated to appear before a house panel later today testify. mark zuckerberg supports forming -- supporting the shield but sundar pichai is -- to any changes.
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an industry report has fewer than 10% of ceos in the industry are women. fewer than 6% are black or ethnic minority representation. that's the bloomberg business flash. anna: thank you very much. let's focus in on a sector that has been very newsworthy of late. travel and leisure. ryanair expected to flight 80% of pre-pandemic capacity by the end of summer. ceo joint guy johnson a jonathan ferro. -- joined guy johnson and jonathan ferro. >> life will return to normal and i think covid will still be with us but it will be more similar to the annual cold. >> as you know right now it's illegal to go on holiday.
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we've got a problem. my question would be how hard you lobbying for the issue and how close are we to a breakthrough? >> it's illegal to drive over the speed limit but a lot of people do it too. >> you're saying your summer is relying on people breaking the law? >> no. travel will be much more restricted. but people between the u.k. in europe as well. >> talking about the idea that you will be flying 80% of the schedule you would normally fly out of july and september, what your degree of confidence in the number. >> there's a high degree of confidence at this point with short-haul flying. that's driven by the program in the u.k..
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europe will catch up in that time. they can be 70% by the end of june. then i think you will see a pretty drastic recovery of shortfall holiday travel between the u.k. and european union. the portuguese, the spanish, they are going to welcome vaccinations -- vaccinated u.k. travelers from the 17th of may onward. i think there's a reasonable ground for optimism. that we will see quite significant recovery of short travel within europe. a lot of people who would normally belong to your holidays and we think -- will go to europe and we think ryanair will be the beneficiary of that. anna: interesting conversation
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about expectations of european travel. sam has information on of various variants in the countries and watching how they respond to the vaccine or how the vaccine is able to fight those, like that will be crucial. coming up on the program, the eu and u.k. signal a fall in the relation of vaccine sharing. european leaders will discuss the rollout. we discuss europe's recovery next. this is bloomberg. ♪ is is bloomberg. ♪
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anna: welcome back to the european market markets under pressure a little this morning. we've got some from angela merkel, making statements to parliament saying the pandemic is sadly a long way from being over. the key, cost -- the economic cost is immense. we have seen the 5 -- a u-turn on the five day easter lockdown. we saw her apologize to the german people for that. we will get further analysis of what the implications are for german politics and in the short term the fight against coronavirus across europe. we will get an update from berlin shortly. a quick look at some stocks on the move. dani: travel and leisure is
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under pressure today. carnival, of the european session catching up with what happened in the u.s. paid the cdc not lifting restrictions on cruise lines until the plan of november 1, a previously cruises try to get things back to normal earlier. another travel and leisure type stock that's dropping today down nearly 9%, the headlines coming out of their is the new lending facility gets them towards the end of the year, flagging material risks to their operation. really all of the oil majors still exposed to the story of the huge container ship stuck in the suez canal. a look at what the macro picture looks like. brent under pressure today as well. we have seen earlier it came up this morning. with the ship unlikely to leave until sunday, it is increasingly a macro risk. we are looking a 10 year yields on track for the first time in
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eight weeks. and a bounce back encyclicals in the u.s. navy -- u.s. may be, not europe. a little dip as we head closer to the u.s. session kicking off. anna: dani burger with the specific market movers. let's focus on the european trouble vaccine rollout. it will be on the agenda at a virtual summit of leaders. the talks, after the block signaled a thawing of relations with the u.k. ben is still with us. we just saw angela merkel there to the german parliament saying the economic cost of the worsening pandemic is immense. we have the u-turn yesterday from the german leadership but it still begs the question of how germany will pass over the
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latest wave of the covid-19 pandemic. how much are you dialing back on exposure to european stocks or assets more generally as a result of this or not? ben: the marginal news is positive that there is some thawing in the tone of conversation between the u.k. and europe. it's well understood europe is well behind the u.k. in the u.s. and its vaccine program. as we can all agree that's great news. but because it's well understood we look at things more leading indicators, of the leading elements of the pmi surveys and the gap is obviously quite stark between the u.s. recovery in the europe, perhaps that's reached its peak now and there is evidence that's leveling off. we have the potential for a catch up for the european
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recovery in the second half of the year. of course we watch the news closely but we need to be a little bit more forward-looking in our assessments of investment opportunities. anna: what does this do to the euro? we see the euro gaining on expectations of the recovery fund and now we see a delayed rollout of the vaccine in europe and the recovery fund whilst impressive, we saw the coordination, incise it's dwarfed by what's happening in the united states. where does that leave the euro? ben: more fiscal response would be welcome for the european recovery, but it does not seem immediate and therefore the electronic or money printing that's going on in the u.s. as a
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supply issue and therefore would have longer-term weakening consequences for the dollar. what happens to the dollar is crucial for what happens to the euro and with the dollar you have a federal reserve that is extremely committed to its monetary policy in the face of perhaps increasing inflationary pressures and higher growth rates. the underpinning a very low real rates in the u.s. should be bearish on the dollar notwithstanding some short-term challenges we are seeing and then for the weakness of the dollar, in time through the year it should support strength for the euro. anna: it is interesting to think about what kind of impact lockdowns, in terms of what we are seeing across europe, what they do to economies and how they -- how much they take the growth out of economies. the economic cost of worsening pandemic and we know that the
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cost can be immense. interesting to see the s&p saying that eurozone growth has become less lockdown sensitive and that is something we see as we go from lockdown 12223 -- lockdown one to two to three. in certain sectors they become better at dealing with the conditions under which they have to approach. ben: businesses will adapt and make them less sensitive to lockdown challenges. some businesses simply haven't had the opportunity to enjoy a recovery from the gradual removal of restrictions, and therefore that level of inactivity doesn't change with the new lockdown. they still remain inactive. so that reduces some of the sensitivity.
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but it offers some asymmetry. if we are on this one way irreversible course in this reopening in the u.k., that offer some asymmetry in that activity should only be going one way, but of course in europe they have a little bit of time to wrestle with the challenges of this pandemic. anna: where does this leave the sector versus sector breakdown for you? you talked about how travel and leisure. technology is the darling of 2020. 2021 looks different. the nonprofit area making of technology, some of those have been in particular under pressure giving up some, but not all of the rally they made last year. where'd you sit on tech right now? ben: i think the tech sector,
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the winners will come under pressure and not hurt -- and are not going to be helped by higher bond yields. economic recovery is a result of policy and successful vaccine rollout, those will take capital towards reopening and our assumption that there would be a shorter-term challenge for the technology sector, but over the medium long term, of this disruptive innovative names have changed the way we sort of execute our business and consumer experiences should remain an important part of portfolios. anna: thanks for your time. apologies for the tech issue we had at the start of our conversation.
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coming up on the program, germany's chancellor ditches her easter lockdown plan. she is speaking ahead of today's eu leaders summit. we will get the latest on german politics. she's been talking about the impact lockdown's have on the german economy. we will get the latest on the german story next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> the spring of 2021 will be different in the spring of one year ago. these broader testing policies allow us to better control and secure the steps towards reopening. >> the german government is suspending coronavirus vaccinations of the astrazeneca vaccine as a precautionary measure. our aim of the government at all 16 federal states for tomorrow over the course of the day, vaccinations with astrazeneca can start again in germany. >> dachshund april 3 will be defined as quiet days. >> the idea of a so-called easter lockdown within the state had its good reason, but in a short space of time, it was not possible to implement well enough.
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anna: a look at the german government's lockdown, a u-turn over the past month. angela merkel made a rare public apology as she went to abandon the widely criticized five day hard lockdown over easter. those are live pictures now. she is talking about the economic impact the lockdown has and other issues as well. my colleague is in berlin and has been tracking the latest. take us through what happened over the last 24 to 48 hours. the imposition of what seems to be tougher lockdown measures and then a u-turn. what kind of backlash was there against a further lockdown? matt: there was a huge backlash and it's really been difficult to believe what's happened over the past couple of days. first off, there was a hard lockdown that would have made the thursday before easter a public holiday.
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and then, 30 hours later you had angela merkel calling a meeting with state leaders who had all agreed to this lockdown on a call the day before and saying it is not possible to execute that strategy in such a short amount of time. they can call it public holiday with only 10 days because of the massive bureaucracy around germany, but also because of practical implications. grocery stores would have had to shut down, but the thursday before easter is a huge day for them to sell a ton of meat and that would have rotted. in fact, it is estimated the lockdown would've costed 7 billion euros. anna: so that's the economic cost and that some of the backlash and where that came from, but that still leaves germany with a big coronavirus problem.
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many countries with a big third wave problem. what's gone wrong with germany's fight against coronavirus? it was so great in its earliest stages this time a year ago. matt: germany has done well if you back out and look at the view from 35,000 feet but recently things have gotten worse. i think for three reasons. they have failed miserably at procuring enough vaccines and then actually getting them into the arms of the people. it's just not possible with the slow plodding bureaucracy that has been organized so this country doesn't do anything quickly. i think the variant has been a huge problem. i cannot remember all the numbers and letters, but the insensitive way to name it is the british variant. anna: 117. matt: thank you. it's much more contagious. then of course there's just
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lockdown fatigue. people are tired of being locked down, tired of having those -- not having -- not seeing those people in real life. anna: there is certainly a bit of that in many places. matt miller joining us from berlin. the politics there. and of course all of this in an election year. the impact this is having on the electoral landscape. intel's ambitious bid to regain. we talked about how they plan to charter company back. it's interesting in the context of supply chain conversation we are having. a lot of interest on the
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bloomberg. a great story on supply chains there. this is bloomberg. ♪ rg. ♪
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and texture, so they'll blend right in for a natural, effortless look. call in the next five minutes and when you buy 500 strands, you get 500 strands free. call right now. (upbeat music) anna: welcome back to the european market open. half-an-hour into the european trading session. we see mortgages coming through in european equity markets, certainly the ftse 100 forming better, and u.s. futures have been improving a little bit. let me get to a rate decision coming through from the swiss national bank, the snb maintaining policy at -0.7 5%. no change from the snb, minus 0.75%. they say the swiss franc is
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highly valued and are preparing to intervene in markets if needed, but as i say, the underlying story around whether they are changing policy, they are not. are we seeing reaction in markets to this? versus the euro, the swiss bank had been weakening. as we have been going into this meeting, we see a little bit of volatility, but not much. a 20 month low recently, but one of my colleagues suggesting that options positioning could strengthen soon. interesting to see the snb pushing back against any temptation for the swiss bank to strengthen, saying that it is highly valued in keeping options open around market intervention. they also say both upside and downside to global risk right now. a quick look at the grr, a function that tells us where the european equity markets are. utilities and other bond proxies seem to be getting a boost today. some of the more cyclical sectors having to the downside.
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energy based resources moving lower, a fairly flat to negative session for european equities. let's get a first word update with laura wright. laura: astrazeneca is lowering the overall efficacy rate slightly after a recent trial. the results show the shot was 76% effective come just below the 79% of the others. -- of the other rate. the suez canal is still blocked. attempts have failed to dislodge the massive container ship that has run aground, causing delays through one of the most important world waterways. 180 ships are now gridlocked. it is costing about $400 million every hour. the rise of china makes nato even more important, corn to secretary-general jens stoltenberg.
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many members are picking up defense spending. >> reaching 2% by 2024, which is the fine line. yes, we still have some work to do, but we are seeing significant progress, and i welcome that and we expect that to continue to convey to the nato allies. laura: global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, this is bloomberg. anna? anna: thank you very much, laura wright with an update. europe's troubled vaccine rollout will be on the agenda of a summit with e.u. leaders today. a thawing of relations with the u.k. despite tougher relations -- tougher restrictions on vaccine exports. u.s. president joe biden plans
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to dial into the talks to discuss relations with the u.s. let's get all those details ahead of this really important meeting. maria tadeo is with us. good morning once again, maria. is there some kind of deal, some kind of eye to eye that we can find across the channel that would take the hate out of this situation? it has been very tense the last few weeks. maria: yes, anna, and we know they are working on a plan. details are still very thin on that. both the united kingdom and the european union have been pushing production in the netherlands, but as we talked about previously, there was a joint statement yesterday from the u.k., also the european commission, in which the language has taken a whole different tone where there needs to be a win-win solution to this , that of course the contents of the pandemic means that we have to work together and reach a mutually beneficial solution to
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this. so the language is very different, and the actions are changing. yesterday we had a lot of muscle flexing coming from the two sides, but there has also been a collective realization that the global supply chain for a global vaccine is very complex and delicate. when you make unilateral moves, you're taking a big risk. take a breather from two competing narratives here -- in the united kingdom, this is to some extent the european union trying to snatch away vaccines from what has been a very successful rollout in the u.k. in the european union, this is seen as a corporate story, down to astrazeneca coming up with a solution. it is wrong to assume that everyone in the e.u. wants to go for a full ban or anything of the sort. we do know the irish have said they do not think it is a good idea. the belgians have said they do not want to get in a tug-of-war on a global story with the vaccine. anna: some of the comments from
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the german side also suggesting there was not. there for a band of vaccines -- for a ban on vaccines. let's discuss something that will be picked through, the comments on joe biden -- the kite -- the comments from joe biden fulton what will he be talking about? maria: this meeting was supposed to happen in person but has been relegated to a video conference of the spike in cases. they are calling to talk about climate, trade, the economy. the big american companies that operate in the digital space in europe, china, usually the big topic on that front, but again there are concerns that this is
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a videoconference and there is concern about potential hacking. it also shows, as we mentioned before this, real politics. there is no eye to eye chemistry between them. they will have to do this as a videoconference, which is very much about sending a picture and an image to better relationships between the two sides than any details on the content. anna: i am sure even global leaders get zoom fatigue, something we all know very well. maria tadeo in brussels. german chancellor angela merkel at the start of the sour, a couple of comments you made -- at the start of this hour, a couple of comments you made about turkey. she says there is like the end of the tunnel is visible, the bite -- the virus will be beaten. in little bit of optimism at the end of her address. let's get back to the corporate news flow.
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we have been looking to intel ceo pat gelsinger about the $20 billion plan to create a new business. pat: because i'm committed to the best products in every category that we have participated, the best cost structure, and the most resilient supply chain, and we see this ability to leverage the industry, but also becoming a major supplier. this is a winning formula, and the world is demanding more semi conductors than ever before. we were getting more digital, and then cobit happened. so we need to step into this, and our strategy is uniquely positioned for intel, to be able to invested on. -- to invest on. alix: we're talking about production deadlines that were missed over years. what makes you so sure that you have diagnosed and solved manufacturing problem? pat: we are moving to a yearly cadence of process innovations
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following that. we are on track to not only fix the issue but be a parity, parity plus, and then we believe sustained leadership into the future. so the path that we are on, looked at the data extensively over the last month or so, and came to the conclusion that the team got it figured out, we are back. as you have seen more broadly, the ibm 2.0 strategy. as i have declared come intel is back. emily: you suggested companies like apple and qualcomm could be your customers. why would they be your customers if they are your competitors? why should a fierce rival also work with you? pat: as you well know, and i think you have written on the subject of coopetition. in some domains you might compete, in others you might be customers and partners as well. and for that, there are very few companies that can step into
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advanced semi conductor technology, something we have only used for needs at scale before. and now we are going to say we are going to open our doors wide for the industry. with that in mind, customers are looking and saying, you know, i have samsung, intel is the leading choice and only one of those is a western u.s. and -- is on western u.s. and european scale -- and european soil at scale? i want at least two suppliers of my technology choices, and intel is saying we are going to be that. there might be some skepticism, because we have somewhat halfheartedly tried some of this in the past. we are saying we are boldly going down this path and we will have our best technologies, are unique 3d packaging technologies, and i'm going to be making all of my intellectual property available, including my x86 course for these customers.
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we are really going at it with the best intel has to offer. the world needs more semi conductors. the world needs more balanced supply chain. we are one of the full -- one of the few companies that can step into do that. anna: that is intel ceo pat gelsinger, speaking with emily chang about the need for my balanced supply chain's. coming up, we speak with philippe poletti, the ceo of already in france -- of ardian france.
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anna: welcome back to the european market open. 43 minutes into our european training session -- trading session. what you really need to know is we have been into 44 minutes of trading, unchanged on european equity markets. with the performance earlier on, we pulled ourselves back to the either side of the flatline come up by .2%. turning to buy art activity in europe, we have $110 billion in management. over the past month, ardian france has made investment from online retail to marketing. ardian is also proposed investment in suez, paving the way to end the contentious takeover battle.
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this has nothing to do with the suez canal, this is a french utility story. here with an update is dani burger. dani: suez actually built the canal, which may there is a connection to the story there. joining us to discuss is philippe poletti. good morning and thanks for joining us. here we are one year on from the pandemic. what do you see has been the biggest change in the way that you invest? philippe: good morning, great to be here. first i have to say that this situation is good for them or -- is not good for the morale. i think that people, companies have adapted. today in business it is working. i would say most of the sectors, as usual. so we have an asset.
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a lot of people are in teleworking. we have our companies to go through that situation, and i think that the fact that we all work together, there has been a huge constraint, but also there is work that has led to the prices extremely well. dani: what about companies that you look at from potential deals ? has that changed at all over the past year? philippe: we are investing in sectors that have done extremely well -- health care, foodchain, technology -- and those sectors have done extremely well for the crisis. we have been able to do a lot of deals during 2020. we invested in two companies, in
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the health care sector. we invest in germany, gba, and lab testing foods. in italy, a company that is doing marketing. we have been quite busy on the investment side, but also on the diversity side. we have sold some -- dani: it is going to be busy -- speaking of being busy on the divestment side but on the investment side as well, anna mentioned on sunday, you and another private equity firm offered to buy about half or a little more of suez, who at the moment is trying to send off a takeover attempt -- to fend off
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a takeover attempt from veolia. it has been very contentious. at this moment, what do you see is the most likely outcome? philippe: first, i want to say that it is an attractive business with a bright future. our proposal will guarantee -- we believe that it is a good proposal for the company. dani: a great company, a great proposal. sorry, go ahead. philippe: basically if we want to go into more details on that, you should obviously talk to my infrastructure colleagues, working on this opportunity. dani: right. does it seem, though, that we will eventually be in a position where viola -- where veolia ends up buying suez? philippe: i don't know yet.
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everything is on the table. i am sure my infrastructure colleagues would be very happy to talk about that. dani: fair enough. if we go back to divestments, which you mentioned before, we know ipo activity has been really strong in europe. is that sort of the way you see as the best exit route at this point, given the environment is so favorable for listing? philippe: i think that listing has always been a very small part, and i would say that is the case for most private equity firms. markets at the moment, i think if you are a nice business in the right sector you can get valuation from private equity firms or strategic angst. you can get value, less energy, so we will look at it, and i think it is still strategic.
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dani: that kind of buyout being the best. you say part about -- part of that is about ease of doing it. about listing europe's back. philippe: it is a small part compared to what they are in the u.s., so it is not as big. for the time being, we are not into it. at ardian. dani: i am afraid we will have to leave it there. philippe poletti, thank you so much for joining us. anna, a lot going on in the european by space for sure. anna: interesting to see those levels of activity. dani burger bringing us that special report. coming up on the program, oil retreats, as efforts are made to dislodge a massive ship on one of the world's busiest trade routes. this is bloomberg. ♪
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anna: welcome back or could open, 53 minutes into a session. it looks increasingly positive for european equity markets, fairly flat right now. laura, is this just a run into the session where you it -- where futures overnight have been catching up? what is expanding the negative start in this turnaround? laura: i certainly think markets
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are telling us it is a keep carrying on type of day. we have a key day of central-bank speakers ahead. we did have powell come out yesterday and say don't worry about any price pressure. that is not something that is going to be concerning. as well, let me look at what is happening in the middle east. the suez canal blockage does continue, but ultimately it does not look to be a big macro story at this point, so brent crude is back below the $64 handle. the dollar is coming off those days of gains, so really that is getting this back into this market this morning. anna: it is interesting to see the sizable moves in oil prices. in the last couple of days or so, down 5% on tuesday, up 5% on wednesday, and some of that has to do with the suez canal being blocked. at the at their issues at play here, the extent to which we see
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capacity in the u.s. come all of that very topical as well. laura: absolutely, and the credit -- the volatility of crude oil was kicked off earlier this week i the fact that we had those virus restrictions in germany that have now been reversed, and this comes after brent crude has tumbled more than 10% since mid-march on these virus fears. but like you mentioned, opec-plus is likely to put a floor under those prices, tumbling even further, that at the same time, i would expect that prices are going to be capped. because we do have those u.s. shale producers who potentially could come back into this market. and then opec does have exceptional access capacity, -- special -- exceptional excess capacity, so they were quite cautious last month. that seems to be a prudent choice with what happens to oil, but next month they could withdraw some of those cutbacks. anna: it is interesting to see that -- we had supply chain disruptions before we had the
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enormous container vessel stuck in the suez canal. we had issues with supply chain coming into this, and now toilet paper is being talked about a lot. one bulk producer has been talking about how the container shortages are now spreading into other types of shipping, and that could make things difficult. laura: and this is something that is worth watching. when we look at shipping costs, they are trading near those 18 month highs, and this is also something that has creeped into manufacturing print. those prices paid metrics are at multiyear highs, so there is the risk that these supply chain disruptions could actually start to feed into those producer prices, and in turn feed into those consumer prices. it is likely too soon at this point, but certainly a key rift to watch on the inflation front. anna: laura cooper, thank you very much for joining us. that is the -- that is it for
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the european market open. "bloomberg markets: european surveillance early edition is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> what we are thinking about as
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we head to this summer, the unleashing of pent-up demand by the consumer and the unleashing of the stimulus, really flowing through the system. >> the problem that we have is that our european colleagues are very, very important and we continue to work with them. that is a product of international cooperation. >> this is a meaningful shortage, and it is going to be a couple of years until that is fully resolved. announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance: early edition," with francine lacqua, matt miller, and kailey leinz. francine: good morning, everyone, from london, berlin, and new york on this thursday, march 26. calling in the a-team of elite salvages trying to dislodge the container ship blocking the suez canal. it will be a high-stakes test for biden at his first presidential news conference. and digital dollar debate,


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