tv Bloomberg Daybreak Americas Bloomberg March 15, 2018 7:00am-9:00am EDT
dodd-frank and the big winners are regional banks. from's new director of -- trump's new director says by the dollar, sell gold. nafta can be a win-win win. justin trudeau plays nice with president trump and says the country has been making kudlow says-- and the country has been making concessions. david: it's the ides of march, so be careful out there. alyx: and shakespeare something. in the trading market, it feels very choppy. the s&p at a one-week low yesterday and now futures basically flat. market, 123 is how we -- 1.23 is how we print the eurodollar. 10 year yield pretty much know where. we had some selling and now some buying.
also not really going anywhere. i wonder what the market is waiting for at this point as we die dressed -- as we digest more out of d.c. david: larry kudlow. this is what is coming up today. we will get economic data, including jobless claims and import and export prices. at 10:45, president trump will meet with the irish prime minister and after the bell, broadcom will be announcing its 2018 first-quarter earnings. alix: no pressure. 48 hours after qualcomm is not going to happen. kudlow's dollar policy trading the dodd-frankd rollback. what areas have we seen change? david: we welcome rachel evans, bloomberg cross asset reporter and we want to start out with
larry kudlow. let's put up a full screen quote, he didn't waste any time to tell us what he thinks should be going on. "a great country needs a strong currency. i have reason to believe president trump doesn't favor a sound and strong and steady dollar." there has been some doubt about what do us dollar policy -- about what u.s. dollar policy is. >> this take us -- takes us back to reaganomics and one of his idols, which is -- the idea of kudlow behind this is if we have to have cuts and we get fiscal booms,and the country investors are going to want to put money into the united states . that brings about a strong dollar policy by default. at the end of ifs
the day. will we wind up seeing structural changes like japanese and chinese investors buying local equities without the fx head, that's a negative dollar shift. >> you are seeing investors shun at the moment. we have seen the dollar being weak this year. when people have been kind of going out to japan and europe, they haven't felt the need to kind of protect against the currency and that is suggesting they have been seeing a weaker outlook for the dollar. it does seem as though we are getting rhetoric coming in with kudlow that could push the .ollar higher central bankers have a quite a bit -- david: one of the things we watches dollar-yen and it really has been moving. vincent: this is a lot of risk off haven flows, fears of trade wars and it potentially can
continue. we base at about 1.2535 this year and a break of that will and us to pre-election lows the theme of the market yesterday with kudlow's appointment was wait for it, trade wars are coming. see him as the face trump wants to put out to explain to the american public why we need a tough trade policy against china and it's really news fors -- good canada and mexico because the feeling is we will cinch up with our allies and nafta will go forward before we take the next step to canada. alix: perfect segue because justin trudeau said the same thing. we will see nafta ba win-win -- be a win-win-win. >> i have been consistent standing up for canadian interest. that is what they elected me to do. we are getting the exemption on steel and aluminum and
continuing to stand up for ourselves up a nafta tatar -- table because we know a good deal for canada is a good deal for the united states and mexico. alix: is that the irony we get kudlow with tough talks on canada -- china, but it will be good for canada? rachel: the canada situation has been interesting. we have seen people pulling out money of canadian investment funds, actually seeing big outflows as people have been digesting the risk. we have seen stocks kind of rallying back the last couple days and we have seen the loonie ingesting -- digesting this as well. -- whether the change in tone with regard to china being excluded from the -- canada being excluded from the tariffs is enough to bolster the economy. david: the australian dollar trades off how well china -- vincent: pretty much a proxy.
david: yes. vincent: the future for the aussie dollar is in question. when you have the -- asking china to cut the deficit by $100 billion, that is not something that's going to happen overnight. talking the art of the deal starting high and we will take something a lot less. ,lix: first it was superlow then it was super hide. >> i will not do the pinky saying, i am tempted because i have the look. $1 billion. i think he sort of missed the boat on that one. he missed a zero 42. i think the ultimate goal of the aministration is to fight trade war with china on intellectual property. this is where the people in the great are talking and they think the administration wants to keep high and technology away from
china -- high end away from china as a defense to the united states. david: we are going to take a look at the premarket and three of the big banks all up. it's not clear at all that that -- weated to the passage were told again and again this will not help the big banks, this is for regionals and community banks. rachel: we are seeing that already in the exchange traded fund world. if you look at the spider etf investment regional banks, they saw a teen hundred inflow yesterday. another bank focused etf also saw more than 300 million flow and it's interesting to me because it runs counter to what we have seen from larger financial funds where we see outflows. not because-- is they are going to save money on cost and regulation or because they will be more active lending money? outel: i think the jury is
on that. looking through the regulations of dodd-frank that are being rolled back, most of the implications are the compliance. looseninghere are restrictions and removing the two big to sale systemic requirements -- too big to fail systemic requirements. if they start doing more pop trading, that will be interesting. alix: what in this was positive for big wall street guys? rachel: anything that kind of lessons the yoke around their next. this suggest -- around their necks. this suggests dialogue around the banks has changed. we went to being something where lovinge not exactly bankers, but not exactly pushing them down under the heel. it suggests there has been a change in tone. david: is this going to affect the economy at all? is this stimulative?
vincent: it can be the most stimulative thing out there. one of the biggest things the bankas in restricting lending is the change of reserve requirements. this is equivalent to lowering the reserve requirement ratio by giving the banks more money to lend, by taking away the limits they need to put up against losses, compliance, cost, prop trading, all in all. it frees up the banks and capital. lend isthey use it to another question. they have the potential to go out there and open the faucets. alix: thank you so much, guys, rachel evans and vincent cignarella. do it, do it, do the pinky. -- how does that play into protectionist talks out of the administration. we will discuss that with jane foley. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ >> this is "bloomberg daybreak." toys "r" us is going out of business. a the them of competition and crushing -- victim of crushing -- competition and crushing debt. jeopardize tens of thousands of jobs. they filed for bankruptcy -- last fall, sales falter during the crucial holiday season. in biggest radio broadcaster the u.s. filed for bankruptcy protection with a last-minute creditor deal. i heart media filed chapter 11 and has an agreement to cut the $20 million debt load by more than half. radiown about 850 stations breed spotify and
sirius xm have cut into their ad sales. thes at h&m stagnated in fourth quarter. revenue was unchanged. european clothing retailers suffered from warm temperatures in december and january and a cold spell in february. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: two administrations and two different views on the dollar. larry kudlow says i would buy king dollar and sell gold. that's not what we heard from steve mnuchin. he said a weaker dollar is good for us as it relates to trade and opportunities. it joining us from london is jane foley, the head of fx strategy at rabobank. your i think it depends on perspective. the treasury secretary did clarify his comments a few days later and said over the
long-term perhaps a stronger dollar. in the near-term, he wasn't bothered. when you get into a low inflationary environment, it is perhaps far less likely that you really want a strong currency because they push downward pressure on inflation and that was the crux of the currency war we were talking about just a few years ago. i think this year, there's a theme about inflation, is it creeping higher? if we saw that i think we would have more focus on the need for stronger currencies. david: as you look forward to what the dollar is likely to do, is it a matter of u.s. policy? what can the u.s. really do as a policy matter to matter how much they talk up or down or is it flight to safety or the underlying economy -- strength of the economy? jane: i think all of those factors and it has been interesting over the last year that we have had the fed putting interest rates up.
beenest rate centers have favoring the dollar. the dollar has not responded. that doesn't -- that is not necessarily uncommon over a short-term period. there are these other factors, some of which can be political uncertainty, etc., a number of other factors. right now, we've got an interesting point, potentially a point of inflection because if sense of trade wars and market concerned that that will slow down global growth, many of the emerging-market currencies are high risk currencies, commodities, exporting currencies, they are likely to think against the u.s. dollar. if we look back at the beginning of february, the dollar has been a quite performing currency. we mustn't do is look at the dollar in the perspective of euro-dollar because the euro has been strong and can hold up relatively well against the dollar, but i think there's a lot are scope for the dollar to
make gains against a whole host of other currencies. alix: alix: in some ways, that is counterintuitive to what we have been hearing and seeing. we have the dollar spot index. you can see how they are moving in opposition to each other. the implication is the more uncertainty in the u.s., the lower the dollar goes. are there crosses that could continue to see dollar weakness? i think certainly, euro-dollar has been an interesting one and there are lots of different forecasts with respect to which way euro-dollar will go. if we look at 2017, i think the euro had an interesting year. the market last year really revised higher with expectations about the political stability in the eurozone and growth. the eurozone has a huge current account surplus. we saw a big rotation back into the euro and because of the current account surplus, that currency was a safe haven -- had
safe haven characteristics from time to time. those behaviors will continue to allow the euro to perform well against the dollar. however, if we look at em currencies, they are looking a lot more vulnerable against the u.s. dollar. alix: one of the underperformers of the dollar in the g10 space is the loonie. justin trudeau sounds confident on nafta. here is what he had to say. prime minister trudeau: we have long-term stability on the economy of politics, social -- immigration that is very attractive in our diversity and all sorts of things. there are a couple of people saying what's what happened with nafta? i am really confident we will get to a nice place on nafta. there's an imminently achievable win-win-win out of nafta and we are working hard to get there. alix: so positive. is the asymmetric upside -- jane: the other factor with the
loonie is the central bank. we have been hearing more recently having high interest rates during this cycle, the central bank in canada is becoming more cautious and that is a something that has been worked into market expectations. there are two factors as well and there's a lot to focus on with respect to the canadian dollar. david: one of the narratives developing now here is actually nafta will be ok the way prime minister trudeau just said. really, it's china that president trump focusing on. if it plays out that things get patched up with canada and developut there does tension on trade with china, what does that do to currencies? how does it affect the u.s. dollar-japanese yen? say --he best thing to first thing to say is we can alk about china-u.s. trade as big theme, but what is important is going to be the sub themes.
for instance, if trump is about protecting international -- intellectual property rights, if this is about a blanket compromise on chinese exports, then the market will get quite concerned. if you consider the japanese yen, that's a safe haven currency. market considers that will slow, the yen is likely to do well and the currencies that can suffer are commodities exporters. china is the world's biggest consumer of commodities. anybody that exports commodities is likely to be hit by that. that could be brazil, australia, etc. and the -- then it is em. if the market thinks global growth is going to slow, that's bad for the investor. alix: just to pivot off of that before we go, you mentioned em a couple times. if the market thinkswhich curret vulnerable in em?
indonesian onehe is interesting because it can give us a good gauge about whether or not the market is concerned about liquidity in the dollar. if the market is beginning to worry the fed could hike more aggressively, we watch that and the reason for that is there is a lot of dollar-denominated debt per capita and that can give a good litmus test as to whether the market is getting nervous about dollar liquidity. david: thank you so much for being with us today. that is jane foley of rabobank from london. a thousand cuts to dodd-frank. lawmakers have given banks there chance to rollback rules after the financial crisis. more on that, next. ♪
rules. this is a full-screen of basically what the bill says. it basically changes the requirements and makes it limited to banks -- cut them under $10o 250 and billion are exempt from the rule. they really have done a lot. this is for the smaller banks, not the bigger banks. alix: and there's a story out there that should be discussed, how stable are small banks really and it's adding fuel to fire. they are getting into the credit card business and a lot of small banks are ramping up exposure to low credit quality consumers. retail bankruptcies could also hurt commercial real estate lending. there are question marks as to the stability of these guys. david: it's encouraging mortgage lending again, cutting back regulation. the last time we did that, it didn't work out so well.
alix: and this is not necessarily a done deal. david: there's a house version that is quite different. the house version is 600 pages and the senate is about 250 pages. the rule in the senate and repeals it out right on the house side and for orderly liquidation, the house size -- house side says this have them do bankruptcy. yesterday i talked with rob nichols down in washington and this is what he said about the timing. a utopia, then president is signing into something -- something into law before easter, but it could slip into may. david: if we are getting a reality check, we talk to kevin cirilli in d.c. you heard what he said, he hopes to get this done by easter. how realistic? avin: i think he does have
realistic expectation. the house version was crafted by jen hence ruling originally and it's much more ambitious so to the other what the -- bill put forward. i spoke with sources on the financial services committee going to are these two mesh and really there isn't going to be many hijinks that thwartupport -- would this bill. if you quickly note that are playing this forward, community banking regulatory relief might get done before easter or the next couple of weeks. we should note the broader trend that every potential 2020 democrat voted against this bill. senator elizabeth warren really doing everything she could in her power to frame this -- oppose it and we should note
that it put her at opposites with other members of her party. -- disagrees with senator warren for how she characterized this. there has been so much back-and-forth in washington about this bill. bottom line, it gets passed very likely sometime over the next couple of weeks. alix: thank you so much, kevin cirilli. he has been up for like 17,000 days straight. tensions between the u.k. and russia escalating. how is it going to affect businesses with amos -- between the countries? this is bloomberg. ♪ retail.
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point. dow jones up 39. european stocks relatively flat. we are looking at the dollar after larry kudlow talking about how he likes a stronger dollar. u.k. with an interim deal but nevertheless we are lower at 139 how we print. a dollar yen getting a safe haven down by 3/10 of 1% as the yen continues to grind higher. yields lower by one basis point. a good takedown of skilled silver. more buoyant field. we will potentially be in surplus. i can't keep track with all these agencies. david: it's exciting. it's oil. alix: every month and advisory forecast higher. get with it. david: let's get a sense of what's going outside the business world.
>> good morning. the u.s. senate has giving the banking industry is best chanting years of rolling back after the financial crisis. lawmakers passed legislation that would ease constraints on regional and community banks while mostly snubbing wall street. it would chart them from the ranks of banks to bigs to fail. president trump will back a strong dollar and a tough stance on china. is a tvdlow -- kudlow commentator and economic analyst. the european central bank has told lenders they have to be tougher in dealing with bad loans. the ecb came out with time limits for how quickly this should set aside capital for loans that turn bad. eurozone banks struggle with that dance that amount to almost $1 trillion. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more
than 120 countries. alix: russia is preparing to hit back against the u.k. >> in the aftermath of this act against our country this relationship cannot be the same. we will suspend all plans i the u.k.tact between and russian federation including revoking the invitation to foreign minister lavrov to pay reciprocal visits to the u.k. and confirming no attended by ministers or members of the this summer past world cup in russia. alix: the prime minister threatens sanctions. 23rd biggest uk's trading partner. it is germany, the u.s. as well as china. joining us or perspective, john mikel' -- you talked to yourself.
think? you john: i'm a little concerned. this will be the beginning of something that will spread. talking about syrian children being killed by nerve agents as well as the fact that this is the first use of a nerve agent against the nato partner. go a further.m to in terms of russian business in london, it's also much big exporters it tends to be more home for oligarchs. money outside russia. there's always been a sort of refuge, london, for many years. isthis particular case it there because people are friends and foes of putin in russia. able to live there fairly easily
. if this changes i think that does make a difference. the tendency of these things is hours russiaew will do the same back and that is it. this one has momentum to go further. david: you put your finger on a key issue. no one country can make putin come to his knees. what are the chances of? true action john: it depends a lot on america to be basic. nikki haley has gone further historically. you will see more people. substanceing a banned so it breaks normal rules. against the nato member. this guy was a british citizen and i inc. that makes the difference. there will be more questions to stockpiles of
chemical weapons. that sort of thing can spread. expect it could roll further. germany being tougher. david: angela merkel says there has to be more transparency. think -- you only have to look at pictures on the internet of vladimir putin and merkel and the dog. merkel and putin have a testy relationship. she confessed she was frightened of dogs. one showed up at their next meeting. much would appear to put in's amusement. merkel is the person who is best at getting him to change his mind. if she does not come along with it to make a difference.
alix: we want to bring in viktor .zabo he received 15 billion and emerging-market debt at aberdeen. great to see you. take a look at the market reaction yesterday a stronger dollar, weaker ruvell -- weaker ruble. does this change investment strategy for you? viktor: if you look at what's happening now markets are recovering. we have nothing reaction on the bond market. probably not surprising because russia continues to be fundamentally strong investment case. market was ready to overlook. alix: gascon sold some depth investorsyou did see in the market buying. you would think the one car u.k. -- continued strength in investment. viktor: russia has just announced that it will come to the market, 11 years sovereign
bond. i expect decent demands for both. john: the real achilles heel could be the swiss banking system. that would be something that would do a great deal of damage to russia if somebody focused on that particular aspect. david: a spokesperson for swift came out overnight and said we are not doing it unless all 28 e of thes eu get together and tell us to do that. chances are pretty remote. john: pretty much how i argued the beginning, this will be bigger than previous retaliation . russia has crossed several redlines it did not before. on the issue of chemical weapons , this time there's something different for people to focus on and it brings together a lot of people who are worried about vladimir putin, it is not just bring together the normal 10 bashers. -- normal putin bashers. danger in thee a
failure of economic sanctions? the u.k. by itself is not big enough. we had multilateral sanchez after the shooting down of the civilian airline over the ukraine. if you want economic sanctions it leaves something much more dangerous. , if: the russian economy you look at it for all the reasons we made clear comics things like oil and natural gas. they're quite difficult to keep them away. hurtanctions that seem to -- london is not entirely without weapons. mobil leaving their russian oil venture because they're worried about sanctions. the conversation.
not being able to develop the arctic is significant. john: there are sanctions where people feel comfortable dancing allo the edge of it companies are nervous. russians have been in the category best in the first category. there has not been that much activity. the iranian ones have deals a lot further away from where the sanctions it's because they are terrified of being hit with fines. david: to what extent has vladimir putin insulated himself? developed economy. he's remained largely a national resource dependent economy that is more immune to international sanctions. john: it's an economy that does .ot grow quickly enough
the vast amount of russians do not take a great share in the proceeds of the economy. natural resource economy tends to go straight to the small number of people who own those natural resources. economyr industrial would provide for more people. putin is about to win election. david: you interviewed vladimir putin. most experts say it's very unlikely that this nerve agent attack could've been done without vladimir putin knowing about it. what was he thinking? john: sometimes with people like to its last what he himself thinks and what other people around him think he wants. second, thomas becket, the archbishop of canterbury shouted let someone get rid of this turbulent priest. you can imagine putin moaning about the russian spies who live now safely on the other side of what was the cold war am somebody thinking that was an
executive command to proceed in that direction. alix: to investors exit care? 5.8%.g at gdp, there is a distinction when you're looking to the market participant of -- john: that is robust sanctions -- a level of sanctions where does begin to matter. so far with russia probably for reasons david points out, very .ased around commodities so far it has not really hit. prudent is doing well in the polls at home. -- putin is doing well in the polls at home. both very muchu for being with us. coming up, crypto pursuits. alan howard ventures into the
alix: and now to your bloomberg business flash. deal.a the ride hailing service and magnet will share the intellectual property. magnet will be free to share the technology to car companies. so run us and elizabeth holmes have agreed to settle fraud allegations. the sec accused them of raising more than $700 billion by making the claims about the effectiveness of like testing products. holmes will pay a $500,000 fine and surrender control of the run of us -- theranos. e soap is of dov consolidating its headquarters in the netherlands. a blow to theresa may. it she has tried to keep investment in the country after it leaves the european union. thanks. we turn to wall street beat
recover three things washroom is buzzing with. no bet like home. crypto pursuits. alan howard makes a personal bet on block chain. diamond in the rough. wall street gets its succession plan in order. alix: jason kelly and executive editor from global television. trouble, then other is that european equities are not in favor. investors are pulling money out of european etf's. jason: i think this is more about the state ofoch ziff at this point. rob schaeffer, seen as a safe pair of hands. a lot of speculation leading up to his appointment about who was .oing to succeed dan och
rob schaeffer was the head of the americas for credit suisse. room.s the adult in the .aking fairly dramatic changes david: we have a core business. we did credit, we do real estate. we want to get back to our knitting and getting situated in the right way. jason: it is interesting when you look at the number of performances for each of the funds that focus on, u.s., asia. 10.4% up last year, asia fund of 23% and europe was up 4.8. alix: when you consolidate and go to core business but you have everyone and their mother talking about how they want to go into european equities because it's going to be a lot of value, you're going to miss out yet again on structural sets.
david: you have to make tough choices and they could go right or they could go wrong. we're going to talk about alan howard. he's making a big bet on block chain. companies, but they were careful and saying this is his money. it's interesting they want to make clear what's going on. jason: people have been worried about brevin howard worst year last year. they have to be careful. if it was a time where everybody was feeling good about the firm, we're doing this, we are doing that. .ur smart founder has this idea they are being careful to delineate these two. david: the sec saying we are investigating hedge funds. jason: it is interesting when you think about the list of who is going in. who is avoiding it. you seen big skeptics. on the other side you have mike
nubber -- alix: and john mcafee. we love talking about this guy. jason: oh great, john mcafee is getting involved in this. alix: how do you feel about that? basically joining crypto secure reported that the firm offered, tax -- high proof security solutions. jason: the other thing that jumped out, this is a company that is backed by another firm called key capital described as a company focused on precious and cancerg and tech treatment. it really goes together nicely. and now john mcafee. alix: martha go wrong with investment banks -- what could go wrong with investment banks? the legacy of jamie dimon
rotating out of ceo spots. aroundi happen to be when they were conceiving the story. so smart about the last 10 years on wall street. when you dig into this, great cover of business week, at the great moment for bald men. bet,is a bad, this -- a this parallel between jamie dimon and lloyd blankfein, the stewards of wall street during the aftermath of the financial crisis. interesting to think about all the guys who lost their jobs. whether it was ken lewis and bank of america, and yet these guys have endured. david: it's almost like a buddy movie. vic into to office reasonably around the same time. they did a really good job. they got cancer about the same
time. jason: as you go back further, outer borough guys. david: one from brooklyn, one from queens. jason: to the buddy comedy moment, you've got the brash jamie dimon and the wisecracking lloyd blankfein. it would be a good movie. particular isin changing their company. i feel like the fundamental goldman sachs we will be talking about in five years will be drastically different. they will always have to trading banking.estment we will see markets and lending become a bigger conversation. a totally different world. enough, it is likely that goldman is going to look more like jpmorgan. david: jpmorgan is going to look like jpmorgan. it's going to keep going just the way it's been.
jason: jamie dimon has laid out his potential successors. it's not as clear-cut as it is in part because jamie keeps restarting the clock on i'm going to be here five more years . even the guys he named president may not the the ultimate successors. alix: also, they still work there. jason: only one man is left. david: thank you for being here. there was terrific. u.s. radios biggest broadcaster strikes a deal for chapter 11. a top toy retailer goes out of business. alix: bloomberg terminal. click on our charts and graphics . interact with us directly to scroll through. go to tv go on your terminal.
david: the tale of two bankruptcies. i heart media and toys "r" us. as ross going to have to sell everything. i heard media says they have an agreement with creditors. in some sense they're going does go different ways. toys "r" us went into chapter 11 last year. i want to point out, two charts. ross bottom, i heart on the top. the blue line is the debt service level. the yellow line, operating income. alix: and of story. the majority you make has to go to paying interest expense and not reinvesting into your business.
david: and it's not a growth business overall. either radio or toys and bricks and mortar. alix: i wonder in this situation , does this change the lbo story going forward. and also, what does it wind up doing to derivative products? talk about clo's incorporating leveraged loans. david: that is something you follow closely. what's going to happen to the credit market? when lenders get burned they may be more reluctant to lend. david: coming up in the next hour we will talk with senator david purdue about performs. this is bloomberg.
alix: no wall street when. revamp ofses a dodd-frank. larry kudlow says by the dollar, so gold. justin trudeau says playing nice with president trump as kudlow says the country has been making concessions handover fifth. david: sounds pretty good to me. alix: markets feel a little choppy. a little directionless. the dollar getting more action than other asset classes. s&p futures are up by not even one point after they closed at a one-week low yesterday. euro-dollar slightly weaker. a mixed dollars session despite the fact larry kudlow says we like a stronger dollar. the treasury market goes nowhere.
bundstperformance of and 281 is how we print on the 10 year. we could see a shortage this year. david: i thought we had a surplus. now a shortage? alix: we could see a shortage. david: time for the morning brief. at 8:30 we will get economic data including initial jobless claims. at 10:45, president trump will meet with the irish prime minister at the white house. raw, announces its 2018 first-quarter earnings. alix: a big week for economic data. we got retail sales out of the way. we have jobless claims and tomorrow we will get housing starts. in the event of leslie -- next week is the fomc rate decision. , jeromeg to wall street
powell is inheriting an economy that is doing well. we caught up with steve schwarzman for his take on the economy. >> one of the things that's forgotten when we turn to this hubbub of what's going on in washington, the basic economy is doing really well. consumer confidence, business confidence, there are records. bonnieoining us is wongtrakool. digging below the surface, jpmorgan lowering their forecast, atlanta fed gdp forecast lower as well. the rest of hard landing are increasing. what is the bond market telling you? bonnie: i think that keyword shorts men used was confidence.
what you are seeing his confidence and optimism of where the economy's going in you see that reflected in a lot of soft data. it has not been supported by hard data and we have seen softening in hard data over the past few months. i think with being priced in is fairly optimistic and the risk might be to the downside that the data does not come in to support that. you see retracement in bond market yields and treasuries. alix: at the same time you have larry kudlow saying fed get out of the way. the growth is not inflationary, let it rip. is that the right call and has the bond market going to respond to that? bonnie: on our side we believe there is more room for the economy to grow. that there's more slack. if you look at workers between the age of 25 and 54. do side with kudlow in the sense that inflation is
not going to be a fear. david: on the one hand you say there are some slack in the economy created if you look at what the fed talks about, we are --wing at 2.5 or two 9% gdp 2.5% or 2.9% gdp. bonnie: it does come down to inflation. inflation does not seem to be a big risk. with there being room for employment -- unemployment rate to go down, inflation is not eminent. structural forces in the economy will limit that inflation. when you say growth is good, it 2.5% is stilland moderate. are: 10 and 30 year yields under their worst week. what is the play on the curve?
bonnie: if youbonnie: look to see how much the curve has flattened it makes you think. looking at the belly of the curve at that could be more attractive. that is something we have been doing. outside of treasuries, that looks attractive in the credit space where the credit her has flattened as well. alix: we will talk about corporate credit as well. willie had into a fed meeting and there is uncertainty, but if four ratets of a hikes for the fed what does that end up doing for the market. how much do we have to raise? bonnie: we would not be surprised to those dots move from three hikes to four hikes. the question is where does the terminal write. -- where does the terminal write. constructive on growth they are not yet concerned about inflation or they are more concerned they have not reached
their target after all these years. even if they do upgrade economic growth projections we don't think they will upgrade inflation predictions. heard not long ago we concern of our fogginess in the market. asset value inflation going on. we have not heard much about that recently. has something changed in the marketplace? are they not as concerned about it? bonnie: financial conditions are neutral. previously they were accommodative. come closer back to normal. that has given the fed or around that aspect. alix: where is more value in the sovereign bond market globally? david: we like emerging markets particularly with local currency . we think those yields are attractive and there's room for collation -- room for inflation.
downfor inflation to come on emerging market economies. they actually were better than expected. you can expect the evening cycle to continue. to the extent that this synchronize global growth , even more than developed market economies. alix: how do you factor larry kudlow as nec? one is we will see a harder trade line because larry kudlow will go out and sell it to other countries. the other is we will be moderate because he's a free trader. how you understand emerging markets within the context? bonnie: that is a key issue whether it will be trade skirmishes or a trade war. that is something that would affect the emerging market economy. what we do against that, we own
treasuries as a hedge. to the extent the markets receive more hawkish trade policy that would help us to have that as a balanced against overweight to emerging markets. david: if you are interested in emerging market debt in local currency is that a bet against the dollar and a bet against larry kudlow? bonnie: ultimately you're going long those currencies versus the dollar. bet against larry kudlow per se. the scenario for of not having an all-out trade war. david: you are too clever for me. she would not let me trap her in that one. she's going to be staying with us. coming up, the credit market is showing signs of fatigue. campbell soup bond offering is the latest example. this is bloomberg.
kailey: this is bloomberg daybreak. going out ofs business. the victim of competition and crushing debt. the collapse could lead to the shutdown of hundreds of stores around the world and jeopardize tens of thousands of jobs. toys "r" us file for bankruptcy with a plan to turn the chain around. the biggest radio broadcaster in the u.s. -- a last-minute
creditor deal. forard media files chapter 11. i heart owns about 850 radio stations. newer media have cut into the company's ad sales. unilever is saying goodbye to the british face it has had for more than a century. is maker of dove soap consolidating its headquarters in the netherlands. theresa may has tried to keep investment in the country after it leaves the european union. that's your bloomberg business flash. alix: the state of the u.s. credit market. cbs issued $40 billion of investment grade bonds but has to offer discounts to investors in all but a 30 year portion. campbell soup -- the spread did not tighten after the offering. bonds fell after they were sold. still with us is bonnie wongtrakool.
what i we learned in the past few weeks about where the credit market is? bonnie: as you said, we are seeing concessions in the new market. there are no concessions to the secondary market. this year we are seeing five to 10 business points of concession versus secondary. that tells you the appetite for credit is softer than it was last year. what we seeing is there is interest at these wider spreads. there's demand mystically and internationally for credit, for u.s. credit. that will keep the market supported. -- ourdiosyncratic investments being idiosyncratic in terms of what they are demanding. bonnie: certainly we are quite selective about what new issues we are participating. we think concessions are
attractive and that does not mean we go out and buy every -- i think there is selectivity now that the market has moved from a market where everything haveened to one where you to be very intelligent about what you're buying and not buying. david: if we see some cooling in the demand for these bonds, will it continue? how far could it go? bonnie: for an investors have been a big driver of the u.s. credit market. even more so than treasuries because they own 40% of u.s. -- any change in their flows are going to have some affect on the market. seen demand for credit soften. a driver for that has been currency hedging costs. for example japanese investors have to give up quite a bit of -- about 2.3% on the three-month ten-year.
as cost of gone up we have seen that the man come down or move into other pockets. on the other side, you have domestic demand. strong pension demand for long dated corporate and strong domestic demand if you look at mutual fund flows. off wemarket has sold have seen foreign investors come back and show interest at these higher yields. alix: you like credit risk order ration risk? bonnie: we like to own both credit and duration as complements to each other. within credit we like bank loan. we prefer that the high-yield. investment-grade, we've been selective that adding at these wider spreads. alix: can you tell us in what sectors? bonnie: thematically we do metals and mining with investment-grade and we like energy.
the names are little more idiosyncratic because it does require fundamental analysis and bank loans it sort of across different sectors. david: what about banks because .t has in the case in the past banks a gun so much safer. bonnie: we've been overweight for quite a while. we think that business model is attractive and the bondholders standpoint. capital ratios are solid. things are profitable. police by regulators. in that sense it is good for us. we are looking to make back our coupon and we know banks will not take undue risk. alix: you take a look at investors. what is the one thing that you monitor to see we really need to start to rethink our corporate credit? what is going to be that tipping point? bonnie: we're looking at a
combination of factors. leverage, cash flow, how bondholders are going to be using their proceeds to whether they will pay down debt. there is not one particular metric and you are measuring that against the spreads in the market. if you look at all of those holistically, you will come up with your view. our view is the fundamentals are very good but the spreads are fairly tight. we look to be selected as to where we own and add risk. alix: great to get your perspective. david up we've speak with purdue, member of the senate banking committee, on all of that change for dodd-frank.
legislation is senator david purdue. we welcome senator purdue back to bloomberg. we will put up a full-screen. what i want to know is -- sen. purdue: the president last year said job one is get the economy going. free up the capital that was locked up. there were over $6 trillion of capital not at work in the economy. 2 trillion on the smaller community banks and regional banks. ,he number one thing we did reserve requirements and lowered the regulatory burden on small banks and that will have a huge stimulative approach on walsh --
on main street america. david: that's going to help a lot of banks. but is it going to help the banks or change their behavior in terms of lending money? sen. purdue: both are stimulative. we know it's like dividends. ,he answer to your question small candidates and regional banks have nothing to do with the 08 and 09 crisis during the got wrapped up in this blunt instrument called dodd-frank. i'm excited about this bill we passed yesterday. it went the regular order. we had amendments on the floor and we had a bipartisan approach . we don't do that very often in the senate. . remarkable accomplishment on the back of what we did last year a tremendous addition to driving the economy forward. right now you're going to see a lot of this money find its way
to small businesses in small-town america. david: a bipartisan effort in washington is -- let me come back to what the effects are. do we need more lending in the economy going on. if there any danger we may be overstimulating? sen. purdue: when you take the jackboots of a an oppressive federal regime you get a pop. most of the benefit comes from the regulatory work. we have energy work done last year as well as tax changes you will know about. we got an activity-based situation where the economy is moving. we still have a low level of workforce participation. what we've got to do is open up foreign markets and grow exports
as well. it could be overheating. i think this is a natural reaction in the cycle to the overregulation we had for the last decade. david: before that you were interested in restrictions on -- eased under the statute. how to we make sure we don't go back to the bad old days of 2006 and 2007? sen. purdue: most of the mortgage problems we had were created back in the late 1990's by the clinton administration when we first darted. who could be against increasing homeownership? we changed the underwriting rules. that created an imbalance in the system. did.w what wall street the crisis occurred. the banks we are talking about, small community banks and regional banks were not contributors to that crisis.
i'm not worried about that at all. without enough rules in dodd-frank that protect against that in a big way. ratio.he leverage paired back from 6% to 3%. are we going to see that in the bill that hits president trump's desk? sen. purdue: the house will probably put that forward. i'm a proponent of that. moving.nilaterally the only signatory country in that agreement that's actually moved. we want to create a level playing field. president trump talks about that all the time. we want to be measured in the bill. this is one that brought 17 democrats and 15 republicans together and passed a bill that will stimulate the banking bill. industry. david: you are from the state of georgia you run companies that are dependent on foreign trade. the white house may be going
more and more conservative. more and more hostile to free trade. what extent are you concerned about that? sen. purdue: i'm always concerned about trade. i've been involved with it my entire career. america has always been a trading country. instinct are correct. we need a level playing field if markets access to our we want access to yours and we want legal activity. we don't want government subsidies. we want a level playing field for workers. david: republican senator david purdue of georgia. alix: still with us is bonnie wongtrakool. are we going to see stronger lending? bonnie: we actually don't think any of these bills could really materially change banks behavior. if you look at loan growth it's
been about 4.5% year-over-year and it's been even better for smaller and regional banks which this bill would help. about 7.7%. those banks have been growing loans across all categories including residential lending. for loan growth to pick up you probably want to see that from larger banks from home this bill does not benefit and are not likely to change lending standards going forward. alix: really appreciate it. hutchinsonkay bailey will discuss u.k. russia relationship in light of stern words from theresa may.
other asset classes a lot of buying in the u.s. 10 year overnight but now pretty much flat, 281. dxy is stronger on the day. a safe even currency with the yen. you see the initial jobless claims that 226,000, staying in line with estimates, markets continuing to percolate throughout the market. in terms of import prices year 35%.ar, staying in line export prices at 3.3%. all of this on the heels of atlanta gdp's forecast around 1% for this quarter, and you have downgrades from big banks in terms of first quarter growth. helping us to write this down is michelle meyer from bank of america merrill lynch, head of u.s. economics. break us -- break down this week for us. used,hink the date of the
the manufacturing sector remains strong. we have very cried manufacturing. the philadelphia fed also very strong. we are seeing this globally with rsm surveys. it is also from the jobs report on friday with good, solid producing job creation. that is one theme that has been continuously coming out. in terms of inflation data it is tame. so prices are heading higher. the cpi is heading higher, but it is happening pretty slowly. there'll be a gradual trend up in inflation, but good for the economy. all of the data is pointing to increase. david: can we keep this up without the positive -- without the inflation? not going to refer to any fairytales. >> you can keep it up for some time. in the sense that you have a
real momentum heading in, there was a global recovery. we are starting to see maybe there is more capacity than we have given credit to on the manufacturing site globally and maybe on the labor markets are given the participation rates did pick up in the last report. that is the piece of the puzzle. if we learned there is more supply, then yes, you could have solid growth without seeing really problematic price pressures build. alix: atlanta fed gdp forecasting a one handle. we saw retail sales rolling over yesterday which is causing concern in the consumer holding out. how do you factor in these two things? michelle: for q1 we are tracking 1.7% and we have been looking for a soft q1 since we released our forecast. alix: which we do say. is that something? michelle: we see that every year. the weaker q1 goes some of the stronger q2 and q3 will be.
we think there will be a mid-percent growth number even with the one handle of q1. i think there is a number of kind of unusual things happening on a monthly basis. you had strong november retail self, early shopping season, then things softened out. in march, i am more optimistic things will continue the consumer trends. david: if there is more capacity we had thought, how will that be reflected when the fed comes up next week, when they meet? will they adjust their speed limit? michelle: i think they are not yet convinced of it. they are seeing early indications, but my view is it is early to change their estimate for potential growth which is currently 1.8%. it is possible you see the balance of risk shift in that direction, some beneficial start to move up. there is a pretty high hurdle to outright change it because they
want to make sure the data is speaking in that direction. alix: let's look at market reaction from import and export data. dollar index is near a high for the session. the two-year yield is up one basis point, and some flattening in the curve there is a 210 is 54 basis points. on the margin, yields like ok data this is consistent with the march hike next week. if we get any thing for a rate hike, would you consider that hawkish? michelle: it leans more hawkish if they put in four hikes as their medium because you see four fed officials move in that direction. it would be a big swing from what they were thinking back in december. they have to feel pretty convinced the recent data is telling them four hikes is appropriate at this point. what do they do in the out years? if a pencil in four hikes, do they stick with only two hikes in 2019, 1 in 2020, or do they
have passive rates? alix: that is the question, and is the data that we are seeing enough to raise our start? neutral rates can rise and you could have more in 2019. michelle: echoes back to the potential growth story and if they are convinced if they have a longer business cycle. they are starting to hint in that direction but i don't know come next week the consensus on the fed will be there to pencil it in. that would happen in the summer. alix: let me get through this and not mess up. michelle meyer, bank of america merrill lynch. good to see you. david: yesterday british prime minister theresa may spoke out again againstmichelle meyer, baa merrill russian spy living in england. this was curtailing marshall relations. the u.s. ambassador to nato treated her immediate response. we stand in solidarity with our nato ally, the united kingdom,
in condemning the offensive use of a nerve agent on their territory. russia must address questions and provide full exposure of their chemical program to the special relations. we are nato. we welcome now ambassador hutchinson. she comes to us over the telephone from brussels. thank you for being with us. bring us up to speed on where we are not just with the united states but our allies. are we getting support for the u.k.? amb. hutchison: absolutely. i am glad to be talking to you. arere, all of our allies very solid on this. when we took of a statement alliesay in nato, all 29 were 100% for giving u.k. all of ask russia forto the answers about this military agent.eapon, nerve
and this is something that is so important for us to realize, because this is another type of attack, another kind of a weapon, and we really are not attuned to having nerve agents. but we are seeing it in syria and now in one of our own nato ally countries, and is very troubling. david: it is very soft -- sobering if not frightening, a secret nerve agent being used outside of russia. the response likely, is a enough to ask for information? theresa may did ask for information and the russians essentially give her a cold soldier. is it likely they will be more forthcoming given the more cooperative approach? amb. hutchison: we are trying so hard to bring russia back into
the international order, and that, and theyg are violating their own treaty obligations in so many places. ukraine, resolve on they are in violation of that. they are doing all kinds of maligned influence in afghanistan, syria, north korea where they could be part of a solution. instead they are part of the problem. we need to do everything , andbly diplomatically instead we will have to start looking at other things we could do. we already have them on their sanctions -- under sanctions because of the invasion of ukraine, maybe more of that. they just need to stop all of this attack on our western resolve, western democratic values.
they are just sowing seeds of discord throughout certainly our nato alliance, but also the middle east. itself.u.k. america, in the election. all of us are facing different kinds of hybrid and cyber and now a chemical very likely attack. and we got to say to russia, stop it. we are looking at sanctions. we are looking at other possibilities. david: you have followed relations with russia for a long time now. during your time in the senate you were responsible for foreign relations. have we done anything that has modified russia's behavior? you talked about ukraine. including a passenger airliner shot down, did that change anything in russian behavior? amb. hutchison: i think it has
gotten worse. sanctions are having an effect. i don't know that they are having yet the kind of effect that is going to change behavior , but we see signs that the russian economy is not good, and that they are such a big country with a relatively small economic product. i think it is going to continue as they arehem putting their money into arms races and malign influence. i think we are going to see the effects of the sanctions, and that has been our major tool, and all of our nations that have put sanctions in place are continuing to do that. what we would like to do is bring russia back in the fold.
we want them to be a part of the imf treaty that we both signed and that america is in wepliance with, but instead are seeing a more erratic behavior. the speech that president putin gave a couple of weeks ago was bizarre. it was out of control. and so we will be continuing to watch this very carefully, continue the sanctions, keep trying to bring russia in but eventually if they continue bad behavior, they are going to have to pay the price for it. david: there are some headlines coming out from bloomberg where russia and the security council are very concerned with as they call provocations. they are discussing their ties with the u.k. to the public russia seems to be escalating the conflict, not
seeking a resolution of it. is that just the outside? are things going on behind the scenes that would be more encouraging? amb. hutchison: i am not encouraged. things are happening that are not encouraging. there is still dialogue with russian ambassadors. obviously the u.k. has made a decision which they are certainly in the right position to do so. we do continue dialogues hoping that this will make a difference, but as we have -- if you go back in time after the cold war, after the breakup of the soviet union, we thought that russia might become a part of nato. it was invited to begin to be a part of the things that we do, and what did that bring?
it brought an invasion into georgia and then an invasion into ukraine, taking over crimea. a hand ofg out with trying to make at least a partner if not a friend has not worked for russia. i think we are very sober about their activities, and i think we will have to continue to watch, but their reaction to great britain is something they would normally do. denying whenic and clearly denial is not credible. finally, is united states essentially having to take the lead on this in the western world, and how important is nato as a vehicle for it to lead? amb. hutchison: well certainly
because nato is 29 nations speaking with one voice, that is a very strong place to make our case and to try to bring them into a better position. the united states of course is the leader of nato and the united states of, has bilateral treaty like the imf treaty that , an russia cannot have a intermediate ballistic missile, but they do now, we know, have one and they are testing it. they also have nuclear weapons which makes even a bigger problem. so we are now going to definitely be in a leadership position, but we are speaking with a bigger voice. not only our 29 allies in nato but other countries who are
democratic countries that are our partners if not members of nato. look at south korea, look at japan. withve many other partners our efforts for security and democracy and western values throughout the world and we are speaking with one voice to russia. stop all of this maligned behavior. we are going to use diplomacy first and we are going to use sanctions, economic sanctions are certainly a second tool to try to show them that it would be in their better interest to be cooperative. but it is getting harder and harder to see them making any efforts in that direction. david: ok, thank you for your time. congratulations on your position. it is the first time i have talked to you in this capacity. hutchinson.bailey
♪ alix: this is bloomberg daybreak. i'm here in the hewlett-packard enterprise greenroom. coming up later, tim ryan of ohio. david: with nafta talks underway, investors and workers all alike are waiting on advancement in the negotiations. canadian prime minister justin trudeau is on a tour of steel and aluminum companies.
he made a stop in saskatchewan where he spoke to our reporter. here is what he had to say. is aboutf this story reassuring tens of thousands of steel and aluminum workers across our country we are working hard for them and we have secured the exemption on this because quite frankly it just makes sense. you can't say canada is a national security risk to the united states and we are so partnered on so many different issues, and the level of complex integration and our supply chain of stealing alumina means tariffs to the limit would be harmful to american workers as well. we continue to work for it on nafta. i am optimistic we can get to a win-win-win as the president has said. reporter: how much does it hurt you have to wait? >> we have done so many things around innovation, immigration, making a case for get a do that a lot canada is a good place to
invest for the long term. we have long-term stability on economy, politics on social, on immigration that is very .ttractive in diversity there are a couple people say what will happen with nafta, but i am confident we can get to the right place on nafta. there is an eminently achievable win-win-win out of nafta. reporter: candidate lobbied hard for the 232. you talked to the president of the united dates. his new economic advisor said you were on the phone with the president making concessions hand over fist. is that right? mr. trudeau: i think canadians know i have been consistent standing up for canadian interests. that is what they've elected me to do and what i am doing. we are getting exemption on
steel and aluminum. we are continuing to stand up for ourselves at the nafta table because we know a good deal for canada means a good deal for the united dates and mexico. i am not flinching on that. reporter: you are not giving anything at this point. mr. trudeau: negotiations are happening around the table. alix: joining us now is michael mckee, the chief economics correspondent and someone from citigroup north america. your big take away from the interview. michael: the canadians want to make the nafta deal work, and justin trudeau is willing to accelerate the pace of negotiations because we have political considerations with the mexican presidential vote in july, u.s. midterms in november. they are not in the way halfway through. faster, it push it is good for all three countries. alix: what if that's what does canadian -- the canadian economy look like?
washe fourth quarter it 170.4 percent. we are still around record highs . nafta has all the headlines, but the bif underlies this as a risk to the canadian economy. >> that is certainly true. the bank of canada governor cautioned the other day that along with nafta being one of them near-term risks, more persistent as the canadians are highly indebted. interest rates are rising on account of the fed raising interest rates as well as the bank of canada raising rates. alix: when you look at the underlying strain, there was consumers. does that hold up? dana: no, and fact the bank of canada infects -- expects consumption to fall off. what they need is a reorientation of the economy. however certainly concerned about nafta and whether or not there will be a renegotiation of the treaty, the agreement, meaning there are downside risks
to trade. alix: so if you strip out the nafta conversation you have had with trudeau, what does he think about the underlying strains. mike: he does see the strains from borrowing. it is going to be difficult for them to increase trade if consumer spending falls. if that happens we look towards more of a doubt -- more of a budget differ sit. if we look to a budget deficit, that could move trump's hand and make it difficult to get a deal. it is in everybody's best interest to do it as quickly as possible. alix: thank you so much, michael mckee from bloomberg and dana peterson of citigroup north america. coming up, the take data. andseas central banks countries, how much are they buying. this is bloomberg. ♪
around the closing bell. this is what countries are buying u.s. treasuries and by how much. china box $8.3 billion last month but japan selling. i love reading this. david: who likes me, who doesn't? alix: sort of how they are selling and why. is this rebalancing, something more to this? japan has been selling for months, so what does it say? david: they are selling. that does it for bloomberg daybreak america. the market open is up next. we had to a choppy opened this thursday. this is bloomberg. ♪ mom you called?
jonathan: coming up, president trump taking hit at gary cohn. he said he single cuts down from china. break, banks given the offering wall street little and drowning our debt crushed by competition. the toys "r" us turnaround efforts fail. three stories watch ahead of the open. and across asset futures slightly up, firmer on the s&p 500. the euro a little bit weaker. down to 2340, and treasuries look stronger here we have are tenure.n a u.s. the white house, the president selecting larry kudlow to be his top economic advisor and he is getting straight to work, promising a new phase in tax cuts. wall street weighing in on gary cohn's replacement. >>