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tv   Counting the Cost  Al Jazeera  February 7, 2022 7:30pm-8:01pm AST

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and the oil tradition down salutes are not held on a sunday and there's been a ras bicycle on the skies of northern mexico. this trail of bright lights was spotted above the california state videos and event were posted on social media on clear what was caught on camera. but it is believed to be meat to write over a temporary ah, this is algebra. these your top stories and it's a big day of diplomacy as well lead his work to that, a possible russian invasion of ukraine, the french and russian presidents, the talking one on one in moscow and the german chancellor in washington for talks with the u. s. precedent, dominic cane is invalid explains how germany's government wants to handle the crisis. ukrainian government is looking for health looking for ways to bolster its
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presence on its front lines with russia in its view. the german government wants very much to be seen as being at the forefront of diplomacy, but it does not want to send its munitions, its weapons to the front lines of what could, what is currently, what seemingly an undeclared war a you and report says north korea you cyber attacks to finance it's nuclear, ballistic missile program. it says fuel yang stole at least $50000000.00 of crypto currency in the past 2 years. these 10 people have been injured by sidney security forces. he find, pay a gas to, to demonstrate his income, to thousands of staves weekly rallies to announce military rules. and to take over in october. the 17 on people have been killed by security forces since then hundreds of mornings in morocco have attended the funeral. the boy sent a huge rescue operation that was watched around the world. 5 year old ryan fell
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into a 30 to meet a well last week, but died before emergency crews could reach him. hong kong strikes 0 curve at 19 start, she is facing is the biggest challenge yet times the city deals with record infections . hong kong has followed china and trying to eliminate outbreaks as soon as they merge. but they have been more than 2000 cases since january and australia is reopening its borders nearly 2 years after the government closed the country all to the rest of the world. from february, the 21st fully vaccinated travelers can enter the country. starting was only allowing an unlimited number of citizens and permanent residents, k o z headline, news continues here on out there off counting the cost me. ah,
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ah ah ah, how long of a problem this is counting the cost on your weekly look at the world of business and economics this week. the u. s. and his allies have doubled down on the threat of factions. the ukraine stands off. it's a took resorted to of the past decade or so. do such punishment really bite and what's at stake. also this week of tension between russia and the west escalates over ukraine. huge energy supplies in the crosshairs. national says,
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the continent must diversified resources away from moscow who could fill the gap. a new terrorist weapon against the us, the world trade organization, authorize this china to retaliate against millions worth of an american export. washington says the ruling undermine fame, market competition. the build up of russian troops along ukraine, water has kept moscow's bibles on edge wandering. what let me putin's next move is russia's president says he doesn't intend to invade ukraine. leaders in western capital say he might attack and one of the high prize if he does order troops in the u. k. the european union and the u. s. have previously imposed russian sanctions and more are expected if diplomacy fails. stock markets have reacted to the g o political tension and the stand off as res and fears of
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a wider economic fought out. us officials have warned of what they called the mother of war sanctions against russia and bow expected to include measures targeting that move hooton's in a circle. and it's time to the west. washington and its allies have also been discussing border sanctions against sectors of russia's economy, including banking and energy. the measures meant to hurt the russian economy, but it's fear they'll also affect those of other nations. of the crisis has already pushed the price of oil and gas off, but it goes beyond energy. the cost of metals used for everything from ca, making and out of tronics to kitchen where and construction have also increased. so have the prices of wheat and coal, one on the possibility of a sudden supply crunch. russia and ukraine combined to make up a quarter of global grain exports. and kia has called on the west to avoid spreading panic that could put its economy at risk. when a loss appears to be at stake,
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to discuss that i'm joined by tatiana or larva who's the lead emerging markets economist with oxford economics. she's also the founder of emerging all mix and she's joining us from london. very good to have you with us. so what do you make of the possible new sanctions that we've heard about so far from the us and its allies that they have been threatening russia would? well, sometimes the hero, the sanction can do more damage than the sanctions themselves. and we can see that these 5th of the human infection already done a lot of damage to the russian markets. however, i think the, what we need to see now is the exact warranty or the deal at the us more low because of going to improve. and then we will see what the damage these sanctions could do. for example, the order of what action russia needs to take with whether the sanctions will be
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imposed if russia affects ukraine or if there are cyber attacks or even information campaigns. so will be the, i think, to the law. yeah. and the u. s. has been debasing impose infections, not just of russia, invades ukraine, russia attacks ukraine, but actually over the actions that she already mentioned, the cyber attacks, the sort of, you know, information. the information was the u. s. and the allies have imposed sanctions against russia in the past. and yet we find ourselves here again after the annexation of crime in 2014. how effective have previous sanctions been in deterring russia? well, i wouldn't say they have been very effective. i think that the russian leadership is probably has a long term political goals and it's a building it's plain strategy and in order to achieve those goals. so i think it's
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actually kind of has been general case with manufacture. no, just again, thrush, but also other countries such as been you swale, and iran when actually you know, the sanctions often do not probably bring it as a defect and sometimes they actually inflict a lot of suffering under populations. so the sanction the tool which has to used very carefully and given that they do affect people as much as they do governments, could they possibly backfire here and not just affect the russian people, but other than europe to oh yes, i think it's going possible. i mean, if the west info impulse, so the harsh sanctions against russia, russia would reply. you know, it's all, all come to the sanctions. and it was the case during the conflict of 20142015 when russia actually curved some in but from the european union and
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other countries which involve sanctions game. so as a result, there was some damage to certain european businesses, you know, greek fellows of features or made the oldness of apple watches and poland could no longer send their produce to russia. so i guess some kinds of measures along those lines would also be expected. and in europe itself, united in whatever actions taken against russia, better loan, the us, and europe on the same page. no, no, we haven't seen much, nancy, and there is, 1st of all that a lot of divisions in europe itself because the various countries within the europe have different degrees of ties. this russia, economic ties of some countries so much stronger. for example, germany has traditionally build these high dependence on russia, russian hydrocarbon supplies. so yes,
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there is become fee that the u. s. and a europe on the same page. and what is that? as well as all the uncertainty doing, you know, to markets, how have they been reacting? what is the sort of, you know, not, i will not say pre war, but the anticipation the uncertainty doing market sentiment. you, as i said, the fear itself is already affecting the market and here. well, 1st of all, the russia markets going to be 2.2 while and in the last few weeks away. but i want to see here beth of the last few days, actually the situation has come down. and these happened after russia reacted in a relatively mild fashion to the us reply to its demand. so i think the markets have great you to start the pricing out to the very political premium that was built in during the month of january. and that's interest. and yes,
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please continue. i was, yes, i was just going to mention that ukrainian markets. you're also reacting a lot of concern to these developments. so in the way, you know, even though at the moment there is no open conflict. i mean, it's the situation on the border is call no one us shooting you killing people, but the markets already reacting as if there was a war. so you cream kind of was also affected by this. panic moved and foreign investors started to withdrawing the funds from you bringing markets. all right, tatiana and london, thank you very much for your time. thank you. well, as the talk, sanctions goes louder, europe could find itself squeezed on the energy front. it's believe that measures to limit roches ability to export oil and gas would be the most powerful weapon and would hurt the russian economy, but they would cause pain for others. most,
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most of the europe, russia provides around 30 percent of the european union, natural gas, and there is a war you may have to turn to other supplies. the u. s. has been working with all the countries on ways to supply fuel to western europe, nations. if that happens, dominant cane supports from berlin. this is the more natural gas insulation in central russia. one of many such plants is product is pipe to destinations in asia and europe, all of which generates an export revenue of more than $200000000.00 a day for the provide a gas problem. the greatest single market is germany, closely followed by other european countries. cumulatively 128000000000 cubic meters of gas flows to the e u. each year, representing around a 3rd of its annual impulse. but what would happen if the ukraine crisis became more war and all of this was suddenly switched off. it's going to so i don't have, it could be an interruption of guessing. whoever was government should weigh,
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canceling whether they really want that was possible to put europe under pressure would eventually tend to liquid guess some of us talk if liquid gas or l n g is the solution. there are a few obvious potential suppliers, most notably the u. s and the state of qatar, while neither could fill the short full of so much gas, immediately one analyst told me qatar might be able to provide a more medium and long term solution. the categories indeed, did supply europe with a lot more gas in the past. but given the fact that the europeans were not very fond of the way that the contracts were structured, katara tended to asia and now supplies from most of the gas to them rather than the europeans should the be some se reconsideration on the european end. when it comes to the contractual elements and their compatibility with european energy law, then that this might actually change the situation. and he's in the medium to long
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term. from the geopolitical perspective, there are increasingly loud voices in western europe who don't want to be so dependent on russia for their energy supply shit in full. betty lecount assume we have to build a foundations of our sovereignty, which means more independence from russia. when i look at our important domes of oil and gas studies, we are not independent from russia. this won't happen overnight, don't, but you know, he, you, lead us has been clear that a russian act of aggression against ukraine would have dire consequences for president putin. and his country, it would mean an end to his hopes of switching on the north stream to gas pipeline, depriving him of tens of billions of dollars in revenue, and depriving the e u of hundreds of billions of cubic meters of russian gas. the view in berlin is such a price is worth paying if it can deter moscow from invasion. ministers here don't want to arm the ukrainians. they believe the most potent weapon against putin is sanctions. no matter the cost. dominant cane al jazeera in the german capital.
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or to discuss all of that on join now by mike full, with the senior research fellow at oxford institute for energy studies. and he's joining me now from oxford. mister full with thank you for your time. how worried do you think europe is right now about us energy supply? like yours, where they should be, should be very worried. i think the slee core, lots of europe supply, not just of gas, coal, and oil, as well, come from russia. so there's obviously a lot of uncertainty about the event of any sort of conflict. still isn't the crying as to what might help close supplies said she really is a key issue as the other in yeah, online is in the press and the politics. sions has been working on a contingency plan. was the love tool going the mean years have ministration, has been talking about trying to get more well in gaster lucas,
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like natural gas to come to, to europe. and that's, that's limited in, to the extent that really so much at the going to cost and g around the world and that split between and the number of markets, including only asia, europe, south american market. so there isn't much l, a g around the world. the moment, well, the u. s. has been trying to find a contingency plan. as you mentioned, washington has tried to persuade europe in the past though to buy its gas, but its found few takers. why is that? well, i mean, i present true, talked about with freedom, gosh for your that was to the i mean the b, b, u. s. i n g producer australia because the way that the contracts are structured with the oxide because they're pretty much free to send their gas energy almost
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anywhere in the world. and they attended to follow the market. so when it was cold and i should, ation prices will holler, a lot of it went off and japan crates are warm, china and india. and you know, when, in the last few months last year and part of this year, a lot of records, massive compete. europe because the europe in price at the moment so much more. so i think both buyers and sellers like the flexibility, right, the ability to move on g round gives them. all right. and what about the north stream pipeline to which there's been a lot of attention on it would bring pipe gas from eastern russia to western germany from under the baltic sea. but is that likely to still go ahead of the current environment? and the, i think clearly as, as a promise some the grand bait in the crate. and then that was the project to the complete
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jeopardy. it's probably likely, politically, to start. well, there's an, i feel conflict on an, in the options of that. and so if the saber rattling them, the approach is going to prove no strain to have a regulator as restarted, that process may not the nation. so, so the 2nd half of this year, just to go to europe a commission for approval that that's really a robust time. so it could get delayed as the process takes longer, but ultimately, legally it will, it will get approved then becomes a political decision as to whether to stop it or not. could those huge litigation should have been damaged in the course of the amount of funds for the project, not just the russians and the possible energy clients that we're talking about. how
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do you see it hurting more than you are p and nations, which are so reliant on russia for their gas or russia itself, which sells so much of its liquefied natural gas to europe and earns revenues promise? well, it's no tell both, man, i think yeah, russia gets a little revenues from exports of oil and gas. oh. and that is actually would be the prices of last year. so you built up quite a chest of dollars with which to withstand, let's say a short cut off of supplies. so it's got the money. certainly to go to that birds. i give you, if russia that's from biscuits supplies, then i spend 30 to 40 years building up a reputation being a reliable supplier. and that's all part of the window it's it's, i could tell supplies and they've been saying your long term conference off the
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table and it will be disastrous for your mindful woods and oxford. thank you for your time. again, for more than a quarter of a century, the world trade organization has been meant to serve as an arbiter of commerce, but it has rarely succeeded to not shop any wins. on the contrary, it has often got caught in the crossfire when it's tried to find solutions. the u. s. has repeatedly accused the w. t o of siding the beijing and the dispute between the 2 countries and has demanded it. reform trade body is yet again anger and b, u. s. it's authorized china to retaliate against $645000000.00 worth of us imports per year. as part of a decade old trade dispute, or the u. s. anti subsidy duties on chinese goods. the amount was much less than the $2400000000.00 that china had initially requested. washington said it's impose the town on products, including solar panels,
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because they were being dumped on the market to help chinese companies do business . as the 2nd time, the w t o has allowed china to retaliate for us anti dumping taxes and 2019 the arbitrator and our paging to add duties on up to $3600000000.00 worth of us imports . that same year, former president donald trump, blocked the appointment of new judges to the organizations applet body. well, the new ruling comes almost a year after a fragile, but arguably durable trade truth between the us and china. washington and beijing signed a trade pact and 2020 that the moms china increase its buying of u. s. goods. the chinese government has so far fail to meet those purchase commitments. president joe biden has kept duties on chinese apparel furniture and other items. the u. s. imposed power on at least $360000000000.00 a year in chinese made goods. the w t o has said additional tariffs imposed in 2018
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by the us on chinese goods violated international trading rules. separately, the e u has fall the case against china at the w t o photography. in lithuania, just begun with blocking lithuanian imports. the route of the sparked off to lithuania is decision to allow taiwan, which is seen by the chinese government as part of its territory to open a diplomatic outpost in vilnius. china downgraded its diplomatic relations with lithuania, but denies ordering a boycott with a nation's goods. i'm joined now by henry gal who is the associate professor at the singapore management university. he's also a member of the advisory board of the w t o chairs program. and he's joining us from singapore, mr. gal. very good to have you with us. so how much of a surprise was this decision by the w t o, how much of a when was it for china? well, i guess the decision was not really surprising because this is part of
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a long rang and dispute. they came back to 10 years ago and the body already brought us substances 3 years ago. so the decision basically established the quantity, the quantum of damage or china. but the even get us action was ready decided 3 years ago. so i think this is just a mind big trip or china. i wouldn't see this is a big win for china. the u. s. s. certainly angered by it whether they see it as a win or not. and they're saying that this is, you know, the decision reflects erroneous apple. it body interpretations. what do you make of that? well, the us has been complaining about b, w q, just just as system for a long time, especially on true remedies cases where they regard the appellate body is to show public body. for example, to be a serious mistake that minds the other countries ability to tech or trying to base
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capitalism and have a long call or be formed. but personally, i would agree with us review, i think be a body actually has made the right decision. ironically, if you look closely at the appellate body decision 3 years ago, i mentioned aria, actually the appellate body. in that case, did a try to re adjust these already of your spring, some probably the body to make it easier for the us to have a safeguard, as to have already subsidy a mattress against china. so i think the u. s. a complaint, a definite mist directly and you know, the u. s. has been so angry at the w t o in the past that it's actually blocked appointments to the athletic body, which is the dispute settlement cost. how much has that hampered the world trade organization and its ability to sol disputes between countries? would you say? yes, definitely. i mean the us a decision to block the appellate body a,
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another mistake made by the us, the course. ironically, on the one hand you are seeing that the u. s. has been complaining that china is being body, can all kinds of w your was on the other hand, to the end of my you the w 2 us ability to really and all these rules against china, by removing the appellate body, making the body game not exist. so i think the u. s. is kind of a separate concrete 13 if the really want to have you was my actions against shining the w q, you should definitely bring back the appellate body. do you think that that's likely to happen under president joe biden? it hasn't happened so far, it was the former president, donald trump, who just decided to block appointments and the app and the body could be see some progress now. well, everyone have been waiting since surprising, a bargain team to all fee. so you go, but i think those of us in the circle have a barn large being disappointed by the actions of the new body restriction. because
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despite the seeing that the u. s. is back to the us or the market last one is the still continue the blockage? just we saw the tween for president trump. so i think i've had a boy that would be continued the blockage at least a ball while and kill the get what they want to in the w 2 by the probably the u. s . has not even made it clear, right? know what the want you to in the w use. so that make solve the problem even more difficult. you're not surprised by the w to a decision later, decision on china. but would you say that it impacts this, you know, fragile trade truth between the us and china that we've had some 2020. that is a good point actually. because i personally, even though i was not surprised by the decision, but i think the decision providers trying to some expected to get an average in the sense that they could use this authorization from the w q to repetitive in the us
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as a kind of a bargaining cheap with the us, especially as the u. s. now is reviewing china's implementation of the one where the most common to us would have read that china is a bill to implement that a while grim it to $46.00. and so i think china could use these to advantage and maybe these would help what we need drugs or mr. guy, we have just a less than a minute left. and i'd like to ask you about lithuania as well. what do you make of the european union taking this case to the w t o over china's actions against lithuania? well, the see? no surprising because the u has been contacting the case for a while. and i would argue that it is a good that the u. s is picking the piece to the w because it's much better than just employee, you know, trying to go back and forth using diplomatic channels. because the definition of walking, i think china, in the case would have probably 5,
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the national security exception, just like russia. the in the case against your grand. so the case would be interesting to watch. i hope that the w 2 panel. what do you need a basic, what are the conditions? do we need to cite the national security exception in the case henry gal and singapore. thank you very much for your time. my pleasure. and that's our show for this week. get in touch with us by tweeting me at miss for autumn and do use the hash tag a j c t c. when you do or drop as an e mail council, the cost at l, just the dot net as i address. but there's more for you online as i'll just 0 dot com slash ctc. that'll take you straight to our page, which has the individual reports, length and 2 episodes for you to catch up on that. for this edition of counting the cost, i'm elizabeth per item from the whole team. thank you for joining us. the news on al jazeera is next the
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ah, and there is no chance to let covers world use like we do. we revisit faces, the stake i'll deserve really invest in that. and that's a privilege. as a journalist. boone into different worlds. but creatively, philosophically aligned, al jesse real world explored the surprisingly between the egyptian islamic scholar, muhammad abdul and russian novelist, leo tolstoy, and the french addiction surrealists all 3 breton and jewels. and i literally think is an surrealists on al jazeera,
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from international politics, to the global pandemic. and everything in between. join me if i take want to live with male, the misconceptions, and the meet the contradictions are mark lamond hill, and it's hardly get up front on algebra ah, face to face the french and russian president's mate as part of a concise, a diplomatic push to ease the crisis in ukraine and we hear from people on ukraine's eastern water who wants to keep strong links with russia despite frosty relations between the neighbors. ah, and i why money inside of this is al jazeera life and also coming new atlas developed by scientists in france. the you.

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